Population Aging…A Reading of Economic Indicators and Repercussions
The rates of population aging in the world are increasing faster than in the past, especially in developing countries. Those aged 60 years and above constitute about 12.3% of the world’s population, and by 2050 the percentage will increase to 22%, according to data issued by the UNFPA.
Aging is expected to be one of the most prominent social transformations of the Twenty-First Century, and the greatest global demographic challenge, judging from its impact in all sectors of society, including the labor and financial markets, the demand for goods and services, such as housing, transport, social protection, as well as family structures and intergenerational ties.
The strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Derayah ” issues a research paper dealing with the reality of the aging of societies, by monitoring the most prominent indicators related to the numbers of the elderly globally, Arab and local, in addition to clarifying the economic repercussions of population aging, and the efforts of the Egyptian state to care for the elderly, as well as making proposals to support the needs of this important category in Egyptian society, through a number of axes, as follows:
First: The concept of aging and its age divisions.
Second: Community awareness frameworks related to the rights of the elderly.
Third: Indicators and numbers of the elderly globally and in the Arab world.
Fourth: The economic repercussions of population aging.
Fifth: Indicators of aging in Egypt.
Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to care for the elderly.
Seventh: Proposals to support the needs of the elderly
The results of the paper were as follows:
-In 2020, the number of people aged 60 and over exceeded the number of children under 5 years of age
Between 2020 and 2030, the global population over the age of 60 will increase by 34%. By 2030, one-sixth of the world’s population will be 60 or over.
-The number of people aged 80 and over is expected to triple between 2020 and 2050, reaching 426 million.
The population aged 65 years and over in the Arab region is expected to reach 71.5 million by 2050.
-The economic cost of dementia is expected to rise to US$1.7 trillion by 2030, or US$2.8 trillion including increases in care costs.
– The number of elderly people in Egypt reached 9 million, representing 8.6% of the total population in 2023.
-The number of working elderly people reached about 1.2 million elderly people, representing 13.4% of the total elderly population.
First: The concept of aging and its age divisions
The definition of aging varies from one society to another, it means all the biological and physiological changes that accompany aging, including the decline of the functional capabilities of the body, a biological fact that occurs beyond human control, and although the concept of aging is a relative concept, most societies consider aging and reaching retirement age an indicator of aging
The age calendar is used to know when aging begins, and this is estimated based on several scientific, social and biological indicators, which can be summarized as follows:
Chronological age: Some societies define it as 60 years or older, and some societies define it as 65 or older.
-Biological age: It is the set of changes that occur in the body with age.
-Professional age: It comes according to a specific career stage, such as reaching a senior position or retirement.
-Functional or physiological age: It represents the age of the body’s functions and the vitality of its systems such as the heart, lungs, etc.
-Mental age: This is the mental development and atrophy appropriate to the age group of the elderly.
Psychological age: It includes a person’s self-concept about his age group.
-Social age: What the elderly person represents in his society and among its members.
Second: Community awareness frameworks related to the rights of the elderly
Those of old age or the elderly suffer from a number of problems and difficulties at all social, health and psychological levels, making it easy for them to be exposed to assault, rights violations, and neglect if they are exposed to illness. This has called for the relevant international institutions to take a number of measures and charters that guarantee the protection of this group from poverty. Integrating them into achieving community development plans and ensuring that they enjoy health and social protection.
– ILO Recommendation No. 162 of 1980 on older workers emphasized the principle of equal opportunities and equal treatment of workers regardless of their age and the Prevention of discrimination while improving working conditions and the environment-Vienna International Plan of action on ageing 1982: this plan was based on basic principles, the most important of which is equity among all age groups and work for a society in which generations are integrated without dispensing with any age group with the need to pay attention to the issues of population growth and develop plans and policies to address them.
– Recommendation of the international conference held in Mexico City in 1984: the need for states to take care of the elderly as a dependent group that puts its weight on society, and groups that have provided major assistance to the economic, educational, social and cultural life of their families and are still able to provide this.
The Madrid International Plan of Action on Aging 2002 is considered the most prominent reference for countries in dealing with issues of the elderly from a perspective that goes beyond the dimensions of care and support to the human rights dimension. This plan also clarified the interrelationship between issues of the elderly on the one hand and comprehensive development on the other.
The goals that the Madrid Plan on Aging called for achieving through a comprehensive approach were:
– Promoting and protecting the universally recognized human rights and fundamental freedoms of older persons, and eliminating all forms of violence and discrimination against them.
-Eradicating poverty among the elderly.
-Enabling the elderly to participate effectively in economic, political and social life.
-Providing opportunities for individual development, self-realization and lifelong well-being.
-Achieving gender equality among the elderly and eliminating all forms of discrimination.
– Emphasizing the importance of the role of the family, and maintaining close interdependence and solidarity between generations to promote social development.
Third: indicators of aging globally and in the Arab world
– The statistics contained in the UN report for 2022, the estimates issued by the World Health Organization, and the data contained in the 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects report indicate a number of current and future indicators of the numbers of older people that can be summarized as follows:
-In 2020, the number of people aged 60 and over exceeded the number of children under 5 years old.
Between 2020 and 2030, the global population over the age of 60 will increase by 34%.
-By 2030, one-sixth of the world’s population will be over the age of 60.
-By 2050, the world population aged 60 years and over will double from one billion in 2020 to 2 billion in 2050.
-By 2050, 16% of the world’s population (one in six people in the world) will be over the age of 65, an increase of 7% (one in 11 people) from 2019.
The number of people aged 80 and over is expected to triple between 2020 and 2050 to 426 million.
In Europe and North America, a quarter of the population is expected to be over the age of 65.
– The number of individuals classified as older working age (55 to 64 years) is expected to increase from 723 million in 2021 to 1075 million in 2050, and eventually to 1218 million by 2100.
In this context, we review the top ten countries in the rates of aging around the world:
-Japan ranked first in the world in terms of the proportion of the elderly population, which amounted to 29.1% of the total population.
-Italy ranks second in the world and first in Europe in the number of elderly people, with 24.5% of the population of about 60 million people, according to data from the European statistical office “Eurostat”.
-Finland ranked third globally and second in Europe in the number of elderly people with 23.6% of the population of 5.5 million people.
-Portugal ranks fourth in the world, with the proportion of elderly people reaching about 22% of the population of more than 10 million people.
-Germany ranks fifth in the world, with the proportion of elderly people about 21% of the population of more than 83 million people.
-Bulgaria comes in sixth place with 21% of the population of 6.8 million people.
-Georgia is in seventh place, with the proportion of elderly people reaching about 20% of the population of about 3.8 million people.
– Sweden is in eighth place, with the number of elderly people reaching about 20% out of more than 10 million residents.
-Latvia comes in ninth place with an elderly population of 20% of the population of 1.8 million people.
-Croatia ranked tenth with an elderly population of about 20% of the population of about 4 million people
Fourth: The economic repercussions of population aging
The problem of population aging is at the forefront of the concerns of many major economies due to the negative effects that this phenomenon is likely to have, which the International Monetary Fund described as “the greatest global demographic challenge,” and warned of its negative effects on the economic growth of countries.
The most important economic repercussions of the high rates of aging are as follows:
-The IMF has made it clear that GDP growth is slowing, with labor force and population growth declining; This raises some concern in many countries of the world, including Japan, the United States of America, and Europe.
-A decline in the working-age population, leading to a shortage of qualified employees, with serious consequences including lower productivity, higher labor costs, delayed business expansion, and reduced international competitiveness.
– Increasing the dependency ratio: Countries with aging populations depend on small numbers of workers to collect taxes from them and spend them on high-cost health care and pensions, and this constitutes a major concern for advanced industrial countries.
-A decrease in the proportion of funds available for investment due to the increase in the proportion of funds provided for pensions.
-A large portion of the population has transformed from producers to consumers, which greatly affects society’s saving capabilities.
Fifth: indicators of aging in Egypt
The central agency for public mobilization and statistics revealed in a recent report important figures on the indicators of the numbers and characteristics of the elderly in Egypt until July 2023, which can be summarized as follows:
– The number of elderly people in Egypt reached 9 million, representing 8.6% of the total population in 2023.
– The number of male elderly reached 4.5 million people, 8.3% of the total male population, while the number of female elderly reached 4.5 million people, 8.9% of the total female population.
– The survival forecast is 68.7 years for males and 73.7 years for females in 2023.
– The number of employed elderly reached 1.2 million elderly people, representing 13.4% of the total elderly.
– 48.7% of employed elderly people are engaged in agriculture and fishing, 18.6% are engaged in wholesale and retail trade activity.
– The illiteracy rate among the elderly reached 53.2% in 2022 (39.6% of the total elderly males, 67.9% of the total elderly females), while the percentage of those with a university qualification or higher among the elderly was 10.7% in 2022 (14.5% of the total elderly males, 6.5% of the total elderly females).
– The percentage of marriage contracts among the elderly amounted to 2.2% of the total contracts.
– The percentage of divorce certificates for the elderly amounted to 10.4% of the total divorce certificates.
Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to care for the elderly
Article 83 of the 2014 constitution states that ” the state is obliged to guarantee the rights of the elderly to health, economic, social, cultural, recreational, provide an adequate pension that guarantees them a decent life, and enable them to participate in public life “ The state takes into account the needs of the elderly in its planning of public facilities, and civil society organizations are encouraged to participate in the care of the elderly, all in the manner regulated by law,”he said.
In February 2024, the House of Representatives approved the draft law submitted by the government regarding “Caring for the Rights of the Elderly,” which came in implementation of the text of Article 83 of the Constitution, which aims to protect and care for the rights of the elderly and ensure their enjoyment of all social, political, health, economic, cultural, recreational, and other rights.
The National Human Rights Strategy 2021 included provisions specifically for the rights of the elderly, which aim to expand social protection programs granted to the elderly, increase financial allocations available to government social care institutions, enhance inspection of them, enhance the elderly’s access to appropriate health care, and encourage civil society organizations to participate in formulating their policies and others. Among the provisions that guarantee the protection and empowerment of the elderly at all levels.
The state granted a security pension to the elderly who do not receive an insurance pension and have no income. The government also introduced the “Karama” program “Dignity” in 2015, which aims to extend the umbrella of social protection to include the elderly by providing a decent life for those who are unable to work. The program grants a pension to the elderly starting from Age 65 or for those who suffer from a disability.
– Establishing care homes for elderly people over the age of 60 who do not find care within their natural families for one reason or another, regardless of their financial or health level.
Seventh: proposals to support the needs of the elderly
– The establishment of a National Council for the care of the elderly that adopts the development of plans, programs and activities consistent with the actual needs of the elderly in the light of a general policy for the care of the elderly with the participation of all organs and community forces.
– Enhancing the participation of the elderly in various fields and encouraging employers to employ them, especially as many studies have indicated that this category has a great capacity for productivity if job opportunities are provided commensurate with their experience, skills and age.
– Launching a media campaign on all media in order to raise awareness of the rights of the elderly, their protection and empowerment and how to benefit from their experiences in the development of society, and then change the negative stereotype about the elderly in the labor market.
– Creating an enabling environment for the elderly to practice voluntary work in civil society organizations to ensure their empowerment and combat social exclusion.
– Expand the participation of civil society organizations and NGOs to provide better services for the elderly.
– Increase the financial allocation in the state budget and the Ministry of social solidarity for the care of the elderly so that services, programs and activities can be performed better and accommodate the increasing numbers of the elderly.
– Providing a database and accurate and sufficient information about the elderly, their numbers and the number of institutions that serve them-and its geographical distribution in a way that contributes to the development of accurate plans for services, programs and activities for the care of the elderly.
– Allocate a hotline for which the Ministry of Interior and solidarity is responsible to immediately report any cases that threaten the security and safety of the elderly and deal with them immediately.
– Continuously train service providers for the elderly and increase their awareness of diseases of the elderly, old age and dementia in order to provide a better and professional and skilled service.
– Raising pensions for the elderly in a manner commensurate with their needs and life requirements.
