The Forum issues this report, which presents in a scientific manner “the meaning of atheism, its history, its motives, and its indicators, as well as a presentation of the efforts of the Egyptian state and its religious institutions to confront this phenomenon.”

The most important recommendations to limit the spread of this phenomenon:

1- Activating the role of the Friday sermon to respond to the suspicions and concepts promoted by atheist websites, which have great repercussions among young people.

2- Exploiting drama in an effective and scientific manner to explain the true religion and shed light on human values and the concepts of mercy and justice in Islam.

3- Develop a major media plan in which traditional media and social media participate to confront the spread of atheism in various societies.

4- The commitment of the relevant religious institutions to moderate religious discourse and the rejection of strange and deviant opinions, which were appropriate for past and past eras.

5- Forming a global body of specialists in the religious, scientific and human sciences on platforms in various languages to respond to suspicions of atheism and dialogue with atheists with reason and logic.

6- Holding open dialogue meetings in universities, mosques, and churches to respond to the suspicions of atheists, discuss their ideas, and dialogue with them through evidence and proof by specialists in all fields.

First: The concept of atheism…

In Arabic, atheism is defined as “abandonment and deviation from integrity.”

As for the concept of atheism as an idea and ideology, it means questioning or denying everything, including religions, beliefs, God, the holy books, and prophecies.

Second: the history of atheism…

There are some historical indicators that recorded the first atheism movements in the year 1000 BC in India, and they included doubt in one of the sacred manuscripts of the ancient Indian religions, which questioned the mechanism of the origin of the universe and the reality of the existence of God and His control over the universe, and about 500 years later, “ Buddhism, which did not provide a clear concept of the existence of a God and Creator of the universe; But it was more concerned with human suffering and desires and the way to get rid of this suffering, by reaching “nirvana” or non-attachment.

These civilizations followed; the emergence of Greek civilization, which laid the foundation for the idea of atheism in its various eras, which relied on the idea of “the eternity of matter.” This theory emphasizes the eternity of a specific material element such as air, water, or fire, and from this element all creatures and existing things branch out. These ideas were launched by philosophers in The pre-Socratic era, which included the Malatian school of “Thales, Anaximanders, Anaximenes”, and the idea was crystallized by the philosopher “Democritus” (460: 370 BC), who did not acknowledge the existence of gods at all.

This era also witnessed the spread of the ideas of the philosopher Epicurus, who emphasized that the world is ancient and eternal, and will remain as it is forever, and that the God whose existence some claim is unable to prevent evil. Therefore, he later adopted the idea of the existence of two gods. One is for good and the other is for evil, with no belief in the existence of life after death, but Aristotle provided rational proof of the existence of “God.” But at the same time, he did not deny the eternity of the world and the existence of matter, which he called “plasmism.”

But Greek ideas and philosophies quickly faded with the fall of Athens to Roman rule and the declaration of Christianity as the official religion of the Roman Empire. Thus, the idea of “God created the universe from nothing” became popular.

At the beginning of the seventeenth century, and coinciding with the repercussions of the French Revolution, which took secularism as an intellectual framework and attacked the ideas of the Church and its control over human lives; Ideas have returned that see experimental science as a solution to all the problems facing humans, and that the world does not need a God to manage its affairs, as long as science is capable of that, with a return once again to the idea of the eternity and antiquity of matter.

Contemporary atheism: The events of September 11 are the first driver of the wave of contemporary atheism, which spread widely in Europe and then moved to the countries of the Middle East. Accusing the Taliban of being the perpetrator of these bombings sparked in thousands the feeling that religion and religiosity are the primary reason for the spread of extremism and the lack of acceptance and threat of others, and even killing them and threatening humanity in general. Currents have emerged calling for making atheism an alternative to religiosity to save people and preserve the scientific and human development .

Third: The causes of atheism…

There are many reasons for the spread of atheism:

1- Psychological reasons: A study titled “The Psychological Type of the Atheist,” which included 320 male people in America, revealed that more than half of the respondents had lost one of their parents before the age of twenty, and that these people had suffered from psychological and social problems in their lives. early; This was reflected not only in their rejection of the rules of family and society; And even rejecting the existence of God, and celebrating that, is what made the study recommend the necessity of studying the psychological reality of atheists in general.

2- Dependence on the West: One of the repercussions of the French Revolution was the West’s adoption of separating religion from politics and abandoning the Church’s control over all aspects of life. This trend was followed by the occurrence of Western and civilizational progress, which made some of the peoples of the world believe that abandoning religion is the primary reason for achieving sophistication and progress. Therefore, the same intellectual approach must be followed to achieve this civilizational achievement.

3-the rigidity of religious discourse and its inability to keep up with the requirements of the era and its accelerated developments, and the inability of a large number of preachers to respond to the suspicions and allegations of atheism.

4-the shortcomings in the DA’wah system and the inability of the religious current to embrace the practical spiritual youth, and often content with dry scientific lessons and sermons that lack renewal .

5-the desire to enjoy life without restrictions, in conjunction with the tremendous cultural development that opened up to the human soul various colors of temptations and pleasures, which religion stood in front of.

6-the emergence of terrorist groups that described themselves as” Islamic ” and committed massacres and barbaric acts in the name of religion, made many people alienate from the entire religious system, and choose atheism as a counter to faith.

Fourth: indicators of atheism locally and globally 

There is no doubt that it is difficult to put accurate figures and indicators for the numbers of atheists in the world, especially in the Arab and even Islamic countries specifically, as many atheists hide their identities for fear of social ostracism and victimization of them and their families; however, some indicators can be taken into account to clarify the extent of the spread of this phenomenon globally and locally:

1-Al Arabiya website stated that according to the campaign conducted by the “bioform forum for religion and public life” -an American Studies and Research Center specializing in religions and beliefs – that more than 84% of the world’s population are followers of the heavenly religions, or believers in a belief or something, and the rest do not believe in anything at all, as they classified themselves in a campaign that conducted more than 2,500 censuses in 230 countries and geographical regions of the world throughout 2010.

2-one of the results of this campaign was that atheism has become the third “religion” in number in the world after Christianity and Islam, and that Islam is the most spreadable, distributed between 87 and 90% of the Sunni sect, the rest are Shiites, while Judaism is the weakest religion, and slightly less than half of its followers reside in Israel.

3-Al Arabiya also published a map showing the number of atheists around the world as follows:

The map shows that the number of atheists in Europe reached 134,820,000, while in North America it reached 59,040,000, in Latin America 45,390,000, in Asia 858,580,000, in Africa 26,580,000, and in the Middle East and North Africa the number of atheists is 2,100,000.

The map-which shows the geographical distribution of those who classified themselves as non – religious; they do not believe in any belief, that is, “nihilists” without any connection with metaphysics-shows that the lowest percentage of them is found in the Middle East, where they are no more than 0.2% of the billion and 100 million “atheists” and their number, as shown by the map, is only two million and 100 thousand.

After them come the atheists of the black continent, with the exception of Egypt, Sudan and North African countries, with 2.4% of the total, followed by 4% in Latin America and the Caribbean, followed by 5.2% in the United States and Canada, then 12% in Europe, and the rest in Asia, with 76.2% representing more than 858 million, including 62.2% in China alone, which is approximately 586 million atheists.

4-according to the Al Arabiya website, statistics show that there are 58 million people, less than 1% of the world’s population, who can be considered “hayari” in any religion they belong, including Baha’is, Sikhs, Zoroastrians, Magi and”Wicca”, a religion founded in Britain in the Fifties of the last century, as well as “Jains” whose beliefs are widespread in India in particular, as well as followers of “Taoism” spread in China and its neighbors, as well as similar followers of the tenrikyo belief.

5-in January 2014, the Egyptian Dar Al-Ifta issued a report on the number of atheists in the Arab world, where it said that the number of atheists in Egypt is 866, in Morocco 325, in Tunisia 320, in Iraq 242, in Saudi Arabia 178, while the number was 170 in Jordan, 70 in Sudan, 56 in Syria, 34 in Libya, and 32 in Yemen.. This is equal to 2,293 atheists among the then almost 400 million inhabitants of the Arab world. But this statistic has been described by some scholars as inaccurate, stressing that the number of atheists in the Arab world exceeds millions, because in 2012, the WIN Gallup Foundation conducted an opinion poll in which it proved that five percent of Saudi citizens – more than a million people then, according to their census – consider themselves “convinced atheists”, the same percentage in the United States, by the way, while 19 percent of Saudis – about six million people – consider themselves “non-religious”.

6 – according to the data of the world index of religions and atheism at the “Red Sea” Center, 32.4% of Egypt’s atheists are in the age group from 15 to 24 years and 36% in the age group (25-34 years), 73.8% of atheists are male and 26.2% are women.

7-the website of the Egyptian newspaper “Al-Wafd” stated that a survey conducted by the American University of Eastern Michigan revealed that the number of atheists in Egypt reached 3% of the population after the revolution of January 25, 2011, i.e. more than two million atheists, including 8 million abroad according to the population census at the time.

The American University survey also revealed that the largest governorates of Egypt in terms of the number of atheists are Cairo, followed by Alexandria (north), in addition to the presence of atheists in Ismailia (Northeast) and Sharqiya (Nile Delta, North), while Upper Egypt governorates are completely free of atheists, according to the same report

Fifth: Egyptian state’s efforts to confront the atheism

1- The Ministry of Endowments, in cooperation with the Ministry of Youth and Sports, launched a national campaign to confront the spread of atheism among young people, with the assistance of a number of psychologists, sociologists, politicians, and psychiatrists.

2- Al-Azhar International Center for Monitoring and Electronic Fatwas launched the “Bayan” Unit in 2018, to correct concepts and confront waves of extremism and deviations of any kind, especially atheism and non-religious thought, and to confront systematic campaigns to question the concept of religion in general and Islam in particular.
3- The “Bayan” Unit has allocated the hotline “19906”, which is affiliated with the Al-Azhar International Center for Electronic Fatwas, to respond to intellectual and religious questions related to Sahih al-Din, and they are answered directly by specialists over the phone and recorded.

4- The “Bayan” Unit, through the “Thought and Religions” Department, allocated the phone number (0020225973500) to answer questions on suspected atheism from callers from inside and outside Egypt.

5- Al-Azhar Al-Sharif established an electronic follow-up department that monitors abnormal ideas, analyzes them, and draws up systematic plans to address and correct them and protect society from them.

6 – Al-Azhar was keen to prepare the Research and Publishing Department for a number of research and scientific papers to refute atheistic principles and the suspicions that they promote.

The post Phenomenon of Atheism: Causes, Motives and Indicators appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

In this context, this research paper addresses the definition of smart cities, reviews the most prominent pioneering models for them in Egypt, and presents a road map towards achieving more of them to improve the lives of citizens and contribute to achieving sustainable economic development, through the following axes:

First axis: definition of smart cities

The term “smart cities” first appeared in Europe in 1994 in reference to a city that employs advanced information and communication technologies to improve the quality of life of its residents and enhance the efficiency of urban processes.

A smart city is “services and infrastructure” that are supported through the use of information and communications technology to become more effective, fast, flexible and sustainable. Smart cities include green buildings, transportation systems, urban security services, flood and rain water drainage, street lighting, crisis preparedness, and an economy that supports small, medium, and large enterprises.

The concept of smart cities is related to ” sustainability ” as it adds new dimensions to it such as continuity, adaptability, equity, competitiveness, productivity increase and re-exploitation. All these dimensions contribute to ensuring the quality of life socially, economically and environmentally, and enhance the continuity of these cities for future generations.

 Second axis: features of smart cities

Smart cities depend on the integration of information and communications technology infrastructure. It includes technology that makes it capable of absorbing any development in the technical field to cover future services.
– Smart transportation: It is the management of the transport, communication and traffic system through a set of technologies that rely on information technology, to support smart sustainable infrastructure, through the shift towards sustainable green cities.

– Smart government: includes developing the government work system using electronic means to provide government services. The most important applications of e-government are: “providing information” meaning making all processes and information related to the city’s residents available, “communications” meaning the ability to exchange information and communicate between residents and the government, and “transactions Electronic” means providing services electronically.

– A central administrative body for the city that has an electronic control system under the supervision of trained human resources, while adhering to strict performance standards to achieve efficiency in performance.
– Relying on renewable energy sources, as smart cities are characterized by limited use of non-renewable energy sources to the lowest level, relying instead on renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, wind energy, and water energy.

– Smart economy and overall competitiveness of the city based on the innovative method of business, promoting research and development to increase employment and productivity.

– The smart citizen who represents the cornerstone of building the smart city system, as smart cities are a fertile environment for attracting and investing outstanding human capital.

According to the Smart Cities Index for 2023, issued by the International Institute for administrative development in Switzerland in cooperation with the Singapore University of technology and design, the number of smart cities around the world reached 141 smart cities in 2023, compared to 118 smart cities according to the same report for 2021.

The report reviewed the top 10 smart cities around the world according to the Smart Cities Index for 2023: Zurich in Switzerland leads the first place, Oslo, the capital of Norway, and Canberra, the capital of Australia, take the second and third places, respectively, then Copenhagen, Denmark, ranked fourth, Lausanne, Switzerland, ranked fifth, London, United Kingdom, ranked fifth and Stockholm, Sweden, ranked tenth.

The size of the Smart Cities market globally according to the “Global Smart Cities Strategic Report 2023” (Global Smart Cities Strategic Report 2023) reached about 998.7 billion dollars in 2022. The size of the Smart Cities market globally is expected to reach 5.2 trillion dollars by 2030, and according to research conducted by the American company “McKinsey management consulting”, which was published by the website (TechRepublic) in July 2018, the Smart Cities industry is expected to contribute about 60% of global GDP by 2025.

Third axis : the advantages of smart cities

Smart cities have many positive aspects that are reflected in various walks of life:

– Social sphere: scientific research has shown that the technologies enjoyed by Smart Cities help to improve the quality of urban life, and there are many positive effects on the social sphere such as :

A-smart city applications can help in combating crime and improving various aspects of public safety, such as reducing deaths resulting from homicide, traffic, fires, etc., as well as reducing assault, robbery and car theft incidents by a large percentage as a result of monitoring, tracking and early warning technologies.

B-safe rapid transportation: smart city technologies can make daily commutes faster, as well as reduce environmental pollution, and by 2025, smart cities are expected to have the ability to reduce commuting times by 15 :20% on average.

C- Improving the health status of citizens: Smart cities provide safer streets, green spaces, cleaner air, improved services for residents, and many economic opportunities, and all of this in turn contributes to improving the quality of life of residents. Indeed, the applications used in these cities can help in preventing and treating chronic conditions and monitor it.

D- Strengthening social cohesion: The use of social media and various applications may help in organizing and consolidating relationships between residents who feel connected to this smart community, while ensuring the exchange of information and contacting their local units, towards whom they also feel a sense of belonging and interconnectedness, in order to ensure the interest of these communities and their residents.

2-Positive impact on the economic field : smart cities are currently accelerating the pace of economic growth by investing in smart technologies and attracting investments due to the provision of better communication networks, strong infrastructure and services that are easy to use .Smart cities have obvious positive effects on the economic sphere :

A-providing job opportunities and more efficient markets: these cities provide smart solutions that can make local labor markets more efficient and reduce the cost of living, and e-employment centers can have a positive impact by creating more efficient mechanisms for employment.

B-rationalization of consumption: smart city applications allow the most efficient use of utilities and the health care system, as well as products such as home security systems, Personal Alarm devices and others ensure the follow-up of the consumer’s purchasing pattern and thus awareness of what he needs .

3- Positive impact on the environmental field: Smart cities benefit from digital solutions in order to enhance energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, and improve environmental efficiency, as switching to an electric public transportation system, for example, reduces harmful fuel emissions, and the advantage of remote work reduces the number of Cars used in cities.

Beijing – one of the most important smart cities in the world – has succeeded in reducing deadly airborne pollutants by about 20% in less than a year by closely tracking pollution sources and regulating traffic and construction according to smart city applications.

4 – Positive impact on the military and security field: Smart technologies provide great advantages for military installations, especially in times of crises and emergencies. The data path also allows for easy collection of intelligence information and prosecution. For example, the army and navy forces in Georgia in the United States of America opened smart solar energy stations. This allows it to operate independently of the local power grid, a critical capability in emergency situations.

Fourth axis: Smart cities in Egypt

The Egyptian state has made great efforts to transition to a digital society and the smart city model, and to benefit from advanced technological developments to facilitate the provision of services to citizens.
The most important smart cities in Egypt:

The new administrative capital: through the new administrative capital project, the Egyptian state seeks to achieve Egypt’s Vision 2030, preserve current natural resources and get out of the narrow valley, and expand the built-up area at the expense of uninhabited desert areas, which ensures reducing the average current and future population density, and increasing the citizen’s share of land and services.

The capital is located 45 kilometers east of Cairo, and is being built on an area of 700 square kilometers, to be a new administrative, commercial and Cultural Center for Egypt. The location of the administrative capital was chosen to be close to promising new development areas. It is distinguished by its intelligent design, which takes into account the latest technologies and international standards, and focuses on achieving seven main goals:

1-green city: large green spaces up to 40% of the city area are allocated to create a healthy and sustainable environment.

2-a sustainable city: it relies on renewable energy sources, and applies energy and water efficiency technologies.
3-pedestrian city: its streets and facilities are designed to be pedestrian-friendly, with an emphasis on smart public transport.

4-a city for housing and Life: provides integrated residential communities that meet the needs of various groups of society.

5-connected city: it is provided with a developed digital infrastructure that provides high-speed internet access and various smart services.

6-smart city: it relies on artificial intelligence and IoT technologies to improve the efficiency of services and provide innovative solutions to challenges.

7-business city: it forms a regional and global business center, attracts foreign investments and stimulates entrepreneurship.

El Alamein new city: the location of the city was chosen on the Mediterranean coast east of El Alamein airport. It is planned that the city will be built on an area of about 48,917 thousand acres in order to enhance the process of population spread and various economic activities in the North Coast region, and also highlights its importance in supporting spatial and communication relations between the Burj Al Arab sector and the Marsa Matrouh and Sidi Barrani sectors, to facilitate the transfer of population and employment, and achieve population spread. That the strategic plan of the city is planned for a population of 3 million people.

Fifth axis:

A Roadmap towards Sustainable Smart Cities Serious steps must be taken to increase the number of smart cities. These steps include a set of measures that promote the development of these cities and achieve sustainable development, as these measures constitute a clear roadmap for the development of sustainable smart cities in Egypt.

The most important actions and recommendations are as follows:
1-spreading awareness and culture:

– Spreading the culture of smart cities and their benefits among community members.
– Raising awareness of decision-makers about the importance of the transition towards smart cities.

2-development of digital infrastructure:

– Investing in the modernization of digital infrastructure to provide high-speed communication technologies and network technology.

– Expanding the use of Internet of things technology.
(IoT) to improve the management of public resources and services

3-promoting innovation and partnerships:

– Support innovation, research and development in technology to improve the efficiency of urban services.
– Encouraging public-private partnerships to finance and implement smart city projects.

4-enact supportive legislation and policies:

– Developing legislation and policies that promote the development of smart cities and contribute to providing the appropriate environment for investment.
– Enact legislation that protects privacy and security in the context of smart cities.

5-improving environmental sustainability:

– Promote the use of renewable energy and improve waste management. – Integrate technology to improve water and energy efficiency.

6. Encourage sharing and transparency:

– Promoting community participation and inclusion of citizens in decision-making processes and city planning.
– Take advantage of Digital Government technologies to improve transparency and interaction with citizens.

7-Skills Development and education:

– Improve education in the field of technology and innovation to ensure the availability of qualified cadres for the application and management of smart technology.

8-take advantage of international finance:

– Seeking international funding to finance smart city projects and improve infrastructure.

The post Smart Cities: A More Efficient and Sustainable Future appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

Digital currencies are one of the most controversial economic topics, especially since they have been associated by people and governments with money laundering, human trafficking, drugs and the financing of terrorist operations, but there are some opinions that the use of digital currencies is inevitably coming and that banking institutions in all countries of the world should prepare for this development and deal with it.

When considering the current reality that dominates the financial scene, the transformation of traditional currencies (paper and metal) into digital currencies commensurate with technological development has become possible, while maintaining its main fixed goals as a unit of account, a store of value, and a means of exchange, and for this transformation to gain public trust and acceptance

In this context, this research paper defines the concept of digital currencies, the pros and cons of dealing with them, and reviews the reality of the Egyptian state’s dealings with them and the attitudes of young people regarding them, with a presentation of the most important recommendations for safe trading in digital currencies. The paper addresses the reality of digital currencies through several axes, including the following:

First: Definition of digital currencies

Second: The pros and cons of digital currencies

Third: Global indicators on digital currency trading

Fourth: Digital currencies in Egypt

Fifth: Steps towards safe trading of digital currencies

First: the concept of digital currencies

Many economic writings have discussed the definition of digital or virtual currencies or cryptocurrencies, but the European Banking Authority defined its as “a digital representation of a value that is not issued by the central bank or by public authorities and is not necessarily related to paper currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Ordinary and legal persons accept its as a means of payment and can be transferred or exchanged ,” Store or circulate electronically.”

Digital currencies are also described as virtual fictitious currencies consisting of digital codes that can be stored on hard disks or the Internet, and their value is subject to supply and demand. It is also difficult to track the buying and selling operations that take place in them or even know the owners of these currencies.

The value of digital currencies is determined by the law of supply and demand, such as commodities such as gold and oil (the greater the demand for them, the higher their price), but their intrinsic value is non-existent, and their value is derived from individuals’ acceptance of them as a medium of exchange and payment, in addition to their lack of reliance on any central authority.

The Central Bank of Egypt law defines cryptocurrencies as “currencies stored electronically that are not denominated in any of the currencies issued by official monetary issuing authorities, and are traded over the Internet.”

Second : the pros and cons of digital currencies

A- Positives:

1- There are no intermediaries or third parties in transactions, which makes its easy and fast.

2- Digital currencies such as Bitcoin provide a much cheaper and faster alternative to cash transactions, especially for companies or consumers.

3- Transactions can be carried out easily by anyone who has a mobile phone or is connected to the Internet.

4- Transaction fees through cryptocurrencies are very low compared to credit card transaction fees.

B- Negatives:

1- Threat to economic security: Some recent studies believe that digital currencies pose a threat to central banks and the banking system in controlling the issuance of currency and official money.

2-the absence of regulatory regulations as a large number of countries have not regulated the digital currency market, if the investor is defrauded or swindled in this market, it is quite possible that the culprit will not be held accountable for this, there is no international law that recognizes digital currencies.

3- Limited commercial use of digital currencies.

4- Liquidity risk: It appears in the inability of the digital currency organization to provide sufficient liquidity for the requirements of customers, because it operates independently of the economic department.

5- An ideal environment to facilitate corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing operations. Once this money is purchased, its owners can transfer it anywhere in the world without monitoring or follow-up, so that it can be converted back into regular money in countries that allow this.

Third: Global indicators on digital currency trading

The World Bank and a number of economic studies issued a number of indicators about the spread of digital currencies in the world:

1- Increasing the spread of digital currencies:

Recent years have witnessed a significant increase in research and development activities for central bank digital currencies (15 currencies have been tested globally, while 15 others have reached an advanced research stage).

2- Development of digital currencies for central banks: Central banks are going through different stages of development to evaluate the advantages and risks of the digital currencies they issue and study the best ways to use them.

As of July 2022, there are approximately 100 central bank digital currencies in research or development, and two have been fully issued, namely the eNaira in Nigeria, which was issued in October 2021, and the sand dollar in the Bahamas, which debuted in October 2020. As the following figure shows:

3- The development of the use of digital currencies:

Bitcoin leads the digital currencies, followed by Binance Coin, then Ethereum, then Ripple, and this is increasing annually at the level of countries around the world.

4- On March 3, 2023, the Central Bank of the Emirates announced the start of implementing the Digital Dirham Strategy, a step through which it aimed to strengthen the payment infrastructure in the country by providing additional channels, enhancing financial inclusion, and addressing “weak points” related to local and cross-border payments. And moving towards a cashless society.

5-In 2022, China launched the digital yuan, also known as E-CNY, after its government, through its central bank (the People’s Bank of China), entered into a partnership with major commercial banks and technology companies such as “Alibaba” and “Tencent” in order to develop and test the digital yuan.

6- The total market value of the 10 largest virtual currencies in November 2020

It is noted from the previous figure that Bitcoin dominated the digital currency market with more than 254.75 billion US dollars, compared to 43.3 billion US dollars for Ethereum.

Fourth: Digital currencies in Egypt

A large number of young people in Egypt have become interested in digital currencies over the past few years as an easy way to get rich quickly. They have resorted to mining Bitcoin and speculating in its market, and unfortunately most of them have achieved huge losses. The Egyptian state has become aware of this danger and has criminalized dealing in digital currencies and taken all possible measures:

1-the central bank issued Law No. 194 of 2020, which imposes strict penalties on issuing, trading, promoting, creating or operating platforms for trading cryptocurrencies or electronic money, or carrying out activities related to its without obtaining a license.

Dar Al-Iftaa explained through a statement that “trading these currencies and dealing in buying and selling through them is forbidden according to Sharia law.” Because of its negative effects on the economy, its disruption of market balance and the concept of work, and the loss of those dealing in it with the required legal protection and financial control.

However, despite this, this article in the law allowed Egypt the possibility of entering into this field when it linked the practice of this activity to obtaining a permit from the Central Bank. Recently, the intention was announced to allow banks to offer the electronic pound on the condition that the bank maintains cash deposits whose value is not less than the units. Issued electronically.

Fifth: Steps towards safe trading of digital currencies

Recommendations can be made to make the trading of these currencies more stable and to protect national and banking security:
– Strengthening international coordination and cooperation at the legislative level, as countries must work together to establish legal frameworks to protect those dealing with digital currencies.

-Continuous updating of electronic systems to protect platforms and means of dealing with digital currencies to eliminate theft and piracy.

-Educating young people about the risks of using cryptocurrencies and how to trade them responsibly.

-Establishing strict controls on the trading of digital currencies and preventing their use to finance illegal activities, terrorist operations, money laundering, and drugs.

The post Trading Digital Currencies..Opportunity or Risk appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

The Golden Triangle project is one of the most important national projects within Egypt’s Vision 2030. The project contributes to achieving sustainable development for the Upper Egypt region within the framework of the state’s comprehensive development strategy. The golden triangle means the area enclosed between the governorates of Qena on the western side, the Red Sea governorate on the eastern side, and the cities of Safaga and Qusayr to the north and Qusayr to the south (the tip of the triangle is the city of Qena and its base is the cities of Safaga and Qusayr).

The project will be implemented in 6 phases, the first phase of which will take 5 years, and the project will take 30 years to be completely completed. The area of the Golden Triangle is about 7,000 square kilometers, and it is scheduled to establish a capital for the Golden Triangle 100 kilometers away from Qena. The project’s investments amount to about $16.5 billion, and it is expected to generate annual revenues for the state ranging between $6 and $8 billion annually.

First: The objectives and importance of establishing the Golden Triangle Project

The Golden Triangle Project aims to implement an integrated plan to achieve the optimal exploitation of the natural resources available in the region and the creation of modern economic urban communities within the framework of the Sustainable Development Strategy 2030.

Egypt aims to transition to a disciplined market economy characterized by stable macroeconomic conditions, capable of achieving sustainable inclusive growth, characterized by competitiveness and diversity, and based on knowledge and innovation, and be an active player in the global economy

The project is important because it has a wide access to the Red Sea (between Qusayr and Safaga), which gives it access to the Gulf countries, East Asia, and Africa. Its proximity to the Aswan land and river outlets helps in the speed and ease of its connection with central and southern Africa.

Second: the potential and projects of the Golden Triangle in various sectors

This triangle is characterized by the density of unexploited mineral wealth and the multiplicity and diversity of its resources, as it contains Quartz ores along with large quantities of phosphate ores, oil shale, tin, germanite, gypsum, limestone and Tantum .

The importance of this area stems from the presence of closed gold mines in quantities exceeding the volume of production of the sugar mine, according to the studies of the Geological Survey, therefore, if the largest share of the project lies in minerals and raw materials, mining activity should not stop at extracting minerals only, but should extend to the activities of manufacturing and settling these industries within the spatial space of the project.

The mining activity in the Golden Triangle is based on the exploitation of four basic raw materials (phosphate-gold-glass sand-limestone)

Table No. (1) The volume of the reserves available in the Golden Triangle

1- Mining projects in the Golden Triangle

A project to exploit and manufacture phosphate ore south of the Qena-Safaga road and establish fertilizer factories (phosphoric acid production, phosphate fertilizer production, phosphate ore extraction and processing)
The cement industry, which depends on the exploitation of limestone raw materials and its manufacture in the north of Jabal Al-Dawy.

A project to produce glass, crystal, quartz, and silicon chips west of Safaga, and exploit glass sand ore.
North Marsa Alam gold ore exploitation project to extract, process, refine and refine gold ore.
The project aims to establish 44 factories with revenues estimated at about 24.5 billion pounds annually.

2-infrastructure projects (roads and ports)

– The Golden Triangle aims to establish roads and axes to connect the mining exploitation areas with the axes of the main roads and 2.5 billion pounds were allocated for these projects represented by the following:-

– Establishing a road network, mainly represented by:
Completion of the duplication of the Qena – Safaga railway route

Completion of the works of the first stage of the Upper – Red Sea Road and the duplication of the Upper-Red Sea Road

Duplication of the Red Sea coast road in the distance from Qusair to Marsa Alam.

Construction of a new road in the eastern Nile desert as an extension of the Qena link on the Upper Red Sea – Upper Nile Road

There are two ways to reach the golden triangle, namely the Qena – Safaga road with a length of 164 square km and a width of 5.7 meters and the qafat short road with a length of 174 square km and a width of 7.5 meters

At the port level, the project includes :

– Establishment of Safaga Seaport with multiple berths (containers and cargo)
– Construction of Abu Tartour port with a dry pouring station, a liquid pouring station and a multi-purpose pier

3- Agricultural projects

The majority of Agriculture carried out on the land of the Golden Triangle is winter due to the temperature exceeding 50 degrees .

Many experiments have been conducted in this regard:

A-planting 35 acres of sunflower with German piety characterized by abundant production and special specifications.

The importance of this experiment is due to the fact that it will cover a very large part of Egypt’s oil needs, as Egypt imported about 97% of its oil needs.

B-experiments conducted by farmers to raise tilapia fish in agricultural water collection ponds .

C-Housing and reconstruction projects

The project aims to find new cities represented by the following:-

New city of Qena: it is planned that this city will become a secondary growth pole.

Safaga city: to become an economic, industrial and commercial center, being the southern entrance to the Suez Canal Project.

Qusair city: this city is expected to become the main growth pole in this project.
The new city of Akhmim, as well as another group of urban agglomerations.

4-Tourism projects

Tourism in the Golden Triangle region is divided into three main axes:

The first axis: the areas located on the coasts of the Red Sea, which is the base of the Triangle.

The cities of Qusayr and Safaga are one of the most important areas for practicing recreational tourism, such as diving, water games, safaris and mountain climbing, as there are many beaches in the city of Safaga.

The second axis: more than 30 archaeological sites in the region.
(There are more than 52 tourist villages in Safaga city, and the occupancy rate is currently 80%).

The third axis: natural reserves and the 22 most important islands in the Red Sea

The natural reserves in the governorates of Qena, Aswan, and the Red Sea constitute one of the most important tourism components of the Triangle region. Among these reserves are the Red Sea islands, numbering about 22 islands, characterized by the diversity of marine life and many rare birds. It is also distinguished by its possession of coral reefs with an area of 873 square kilometers out of 3,800 square kilometers in the Red Sea Governorate, the presence of 300 different types of coral reefs along the coast, and its possession of mangrove plants.

third: The challenges facing the Golden Triangle and ways to confront it

Major national projects may face many challenges

Environmental challenges

The occurrence of negative effects on the environment in the Golden Triangle area because the targeted industries in the area of mining and mineral extraction have environmental impacts and that the waste, emissions and discharge resulting from them are polluting the environment such as: carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and others, and these materials may result in smog and acid rain and have an impact on the ozone layer.

Challenges that threaten tourism

The development and expansion of the port of Safaga may affect fisheries and coral reefs.

Ways to meet challenges:

– Providing suitable lands for the establishment of industrial zones next to the areas of availability of raw materials.

– Treat the Golden Triangle area as not of a single nature (agricultural, industrial and tourist areas), each of which has its own style of development.

– Raising the efficiency and effectiveness of the exploitation of Natural Resources (the scope of beaches), both in terms of spatial distribution and in terms of seasonal use of tourism to use throughout the year through the services provided within the established projects and multiple recreational means that push to prolong the duration of the visit while ensuring the work of beach projects in the light of planning equations and standards to ensure that the environment is not degraded until an appropriate promotional service is provided to tourists.

– Development and optimization of festivals as a marketing tool for the tourism product in the Golden Triangle region.

– Activating transit tourism through ships passing through the Red Sea by setting programs for one-day visits and activating shopping tourism.

– Benefiting from the archaeological areas, upgrading them and marketing them in a way that benefits the national income and the national product of the sector and the country in general.
Prohibiting indiscriminate hunting and collecting plants and applying penalties for this.
Direct development to the back of coastal areas to not put pressure on the coast and waste environmental values.

Finally, the Golden Triangle project promises to be a new artery for Sustainable Development and a new economic industrial capital in Egypt, as it aims to establish giant mining, agricultural, industrial, commercial and tourism projects. It is expected that this project will achieve a breakthrough in the development of the south of upper.And to achieve a great economic benefit for Egypt in its foreign relations, especially with African countries, as Egypt’s privileged location and presence on the global trade corridor qualifies the Golden Triangle region to be a logistics port serving Egypt and Africa.

The post Golden Triangle Project in Upper Egypt: Potential and challenges appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

Navigation disturbances in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden constitute a direct threat to the safety of navigation in the Suez Canal, and thus lead to a decrease in Suez Canal revenues and damage to the Egyptian economy, especially after there was much talk about the possibility of some shipping lines moving to using the Cape of Good Hope route in light of the continuing of instability In the region.

This research paper discusses the impact of instability in the Red Sea on the Suez Canal, especially in light of the Houthi attacks, in addition to the economic returns from the new Suez Canal project, the development and reform efforts made by the Egyptian state to achieve greater returns on the national economy, and finally the most prominent projects that It threatens the status and importance of the Suez Canal at the global level.

The first axis: Houthi attacks on the Red Sea

Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, particularly those linked to Israel, have prompted some companies to divert their ships away from the Suez Canal and the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait. These ships have been seen taking a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Europe and Asia, which increases their transit time

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have escalated the war in Gaza and endangered international trade in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. There is certainly an ideological element to the attacks on commercial ships, as they allow the Houthis to reposition themselves as a major regional supporter of the Palestinian resistance against the Israeli occupation. But these attacks are also part of the Houthis’ political strategy to maintain and expand their power inside Yemen.

The Houthi attacks, which are currently focusing more on ships with ties to the Israeli occupation state, are not new. Between 2021 and 2023, drone attacks attributed to Iran targeted some ships linked to Israeli authorities, including in the Arabian Sea near Oman. But the Gaza war has raised the level of these threats, as the Houthis use new methods to target commercial ships.

Washington announced the formation of an international coalition of ten countries to protect the security of the Red Sea, with the aim of countering Houthi attacks; but there are undeclared goals such as militarizing the Red Sea, making it a zone of influence for it, controlling Bab al-Mandeb, and introducing the largest amount of American troops to the region, to allow it to maneuver politically and protect Israel’s security by finding an imaginary enemy and taking advantage of it, as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Red Sea has become the subject of great international competition due to the presence of 11 military bases in the Horn of Africa near its entrance.

Global energy security and dry goods trade are at risk, especially in Europe, if Houthi attacks escalate.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, northbound crude oil transports via two main routes to the Mediterranean – the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline – increased by more than 60% during the first half of this year compared to 2020, with demand recovering in Europe and the United States in the wake of the “Covid-19” pandemic.

Economists say that the continuation of the attacks will contribute to the deterioration of global trade and put it in great trouble. It will also confuse shipping companies in the short and long term, which will negatively affect the global economy and cause a new, imminent shock, as this vital sector witnessed during the Covid-19 epidemic.

The second axis: The Suez Canal, development opportunities, and the threats it faces

The importance of the New Suez Canal lies in the positive return it brings to the Egyptian economy. It has contributed to enhancing confidence and increasing the value of the national economy by providing investment opportunities for local and foreign companies, which has led to an increase in the canal’s income from foreign currencies and the provision of new job opportunities for citizens, in addition to its role The project aims to facilitate the movement of commercial ships and provide the greatest possible amount of safety to protect them.

The achievements of the construction of the new Suez Canal, according to the website of the Suez Canal Authority, are as follows:

1-increasing the discharge capacity of the canal to reach 97 standard vessels / day compared to about 77 standard vessels / day before the opening of the new canal.

2-achieving direct transit of 45 ships in both directions while reducing the transit time to be 11 hours instead of 18 hours for the northern convoy and joining the second Northern convoy to the first Northern convoy to make the transit one Northern convoy and one Southern convoy only.

3-allowing the passage of ships up to a submersible of 66 feet in both directions, especially in light of the continuous increase of ships with a submersible of 45 feet and more, which contributed to attracting giant ships in the World Trade fleet to cross the canal.

4-achieving navigational safety by having an alternative channel that ensures that navigation does not stop when any emergency incident occurs.

5-reducing the number of bends in the canal’s navigational course, which led to an increase in the rates of navigational safety for ships transiting the canal.

6-maintaining the competitive position of the Suez Canal by continuing to develop the navigation of the canal in the light of development projects that are carried out in competitive and alternative ways, whether sea or land .

The consequences of the new Suez Canal project and the economic return:

1- Increasing job opportunities for the people of the Canal cities, Sinai, and neighboring governorates, while creating new urban communities.

2- Maximizing the competitive capabilities of the canal and distinguishing it from similar channels as a result of increasing navigational safety rates during the passage of ships.

3- Increasing the canal’s capacity and increasing the number of passing ships to 97 ships in 2023 instead of 49 ships in 2014.

4-Increasing the revenues of the Suez Canal, as the canal’s navigation reports recorded during the seven years following its opening (2016-2022), also recorded the highest annual revenue of $8 billion, exceeding all numbers that had been recorded before and the highest annual net tonnage of 1.4 billion tons.

5- It is also clear that there has been an increase in the number of oil tankers transiting the Suez Canal starting from (2019-2022).

The new Suez Canal project and the Sustainable Development Goals 2030

– we can say that this project has succeeded in achieving some Sustainable Development Goals such as :

– Sixth goal: clean water and sanitation The plan for the Port Said tunnels project included the construction of a sewage treatment plant with a capacity of 500 cubic meters per day.

– The seventh goal : clean and affordable energy

The New Ismailia city relies on alternative energy sources produced from wind in addition to electrical sources.

– Eighth goal: decent work and economic growth
We note that the establishment of the New Ismailia governorate provides more than one hundred thousand job opportunities at least during the construction period, and the new Suez Canal project has increased job opportunities for the people of the canal cities, Sinai and neighboring governorates .

-Ninth goal: industry, innovation and infrastructure
By creating a set of floating bridges and tunnels of the Suez Canal.

Weak points in the new Suez Canal project:

The course of the Suez Canal has witnessed some incidents of disruption to navigation due to ships running aground or certain malfunctions in ship engines while crossing the canal. Among these incidents are:

-The giant container carrier “Evergreen” ran aground, and after 6 days, tugs and dredgers succeeded in refloating it.

-The Tugboat Fahd, belonging to the Suez Canal Authority, sank after it collided with a liquefied petroleum gas tanker, “China Gas Legend,” flying the Hong Kong flag. It was passing through the Al-Balah area within the shipping lane north of Ismailia Governorate.

-Collision between the Singapore-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker BW Lesmes and the Cayman Islands-flagged Puri oil products tanker in the canal’s waterway.

Efforts for development and reform :

The Suez Canal authority adopts a national strategy until 2030, based mainly on the development of the canal’s navigational channel, especially the Suez Canal duplication project, which includes the canal duplication project in the lesser bitter Lakes region with a length of 10 km from kilo 122 to Kilo 132 numbering the canal, and the length of the new Suez Canal targeted by the project is 82 km instead of 72 km.

At the executive level of the canal duplication project, according to a report issued by the media center of the Council of ministers, 33 million m3 of saturated sand has been removed from the water, bringing the completion rate of dredging works to 53.5%, and 4 dredgers are working on the project.

According to the report, the Suez Canal development and duplication projects include the expansion and deepening of the southern area of the canal, where the length of the project is 30 km from kilo 132 to Kilo 162 numbering the canal, and its width is 40 meters east and depth is 27 meters instead of 24 meters, and the development project allows increasing navigational safety by 28%, in addition to increasing the capacity in that area by 6 additional vessels.

The most prominent projects that threaten the Suez Canal:

1- Oil pipelines in the Arab region, which represent a strong competitor to the Suez Canal and the volume of oil trade passing through it. These lines consist of 5 pipelines with a capacity of about 362.5 million tons annually, and if they are operated at full capacity, they will greatly affect the quantities of oil transported through Suez, especially since transporting oil through pipelines is much cheaper than sea transport.
1.Iraq (Kirkuk)-Turkey (Ceyhan) pipeline.
2. Israel (Eilat) – Palestine (Ashkelon) pipeline.
3. Pipeline (Kirkuk) – Syria (Baniyas).
4.Iraq-Lebanon pipeline.
5.Saudi-Lebanon pipeline.

2 – Northern Sea Road:
It is a maritime shipping corridor linking the Asian and European continents and passes through Russia, Iran, and India. It represents a strong competition to the Suez Canal route, as it is 40% shorter than the transportation route through the Suez Canal, and it has a number of advantages, as its shortened route allows for reducing not only time but also Fuel costs, which helps reduce human pressure in transportation companies.

3- Ashdod Port:
The port is located in the coastal city of Ashdod, on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It is an Israeli project approved in 2014, and is usually used to deliver aid to the besieged Gaza Strip.

4 – Dead Sea Canal:
A canal to connect the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, approved in 2013, is a Jordanian-Palestinian-Israeli project.

5-North-south corridor :
It is an economic corridor from India to Europe, it is 7200 kilometers, from ships, railways, road routes, and is intended for the transportation of goods, passing through the territory of India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and then Eastern Europe.

Finally, the Red Sea is one of the most important main waterways for navigation and international trade, where more than 16 thousand commercial, tourist and military vessels pass through it annually, and it is relied on for importing oil (30% of world oil production), as well as raw materials for Europe and the United States, and industrial products are exported to Asia, Africa and Australia through it.

The Red Sea has become the pole where the interests and goals of a large group of regional and global States converge and regional and international powers compete to find influence in it to ensure their interests. The Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have become of overlapping strategic, economic and security importance that are difficult to separate for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Israel, as well as regional powers such as Turkey and Iran and international powers such as the United States and China.

The post Houthi Attacks and their Impact on Red Sea and Suez Canal’s Security appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

Aging is expected to be one of the most prominent social transformations of the Twenty-First Century, and the greatest global demographic challenge, judging from its impact in all sectors of society, including the labor and financial markets, the demand for goods and services, such as housing, transport, social protection, as well as family structures and intergenerational ties.

The strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Derayah ” issues a research paper dealing with the reality of the aging of societies, by monitoring the most prominent indicators related to the numbers of the elderly globally, Arab and local, in addition to clarifying the economic repercussions of population aging, and the efforts of the Egyptian state to care for the elderly, as well as making proposals to support the needs of this important category in Egyptian society, through a number of axes, as follows:

First: The concept of aging and its age divisions.
Second: Community awareness frameworks related to the rights of the elderly.
Third: Indicators and numbers of the elderly globally and in the Arab world.
Fourth: The economic repercussions of population aging.
Fifth: Indicators of aging in Egypt.
Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to care for the elderly.
Seventh: Proposals to support the needs of the elderly

The results of the paper were as follows:

-In 2020, the number of people aged 60 and over exceeded the number of children under 5 years of age
Between 2020 and 2030, the global population over the age of 60 will increase by 34%. By 2030, one-sixth of the world’s population will be 60 or over.

-The number of people aged 80 and over is expected to triple between 2020 and 2050, reaching 426 million.
The population aged 65 years and over in the Arab region is expected to reach 71.5 million by 2050.

-The economic cost of dementia is expected to rise to US$1.7 trillion by 2030, or US$2.8 trillion including increases in care costs.

– The number of elderly people in Egypt reached 9 million, representing 8.6% of the total population in 2023.

-The number of working elderly people reached about 1.2 million elderly people, representing 13.4% of the total elderly population.

First: The concept of aging and its age divisions

The definition of aging varies from one society to another, it means all the biological and physiological changes that accompany aging, including the decline of the functional capabilities of the body, a biological fact that occurs beyond human control, and although the concept of aging is a relative concept, most societies consider aging and reaching retirement age an indicator of aging

The age calendar is used to know when aging begins, and this is estimated based on several scientific, social and biological indicators, which can be summarized as follows:

Chronological age: Some societies define it as 60 years or older, and some societies define it as 65 or older.

-Biological age: It is the set of changes that occur in the body with age.
-Professional age: It comes according to a specific career stage, such as reaching a senior position or retirement.
-Functional or physiological age: It represents the age of the body’s functions and the vitality of its systems such as the heart, lungs, etc.
-Mental age: This is the mental development and atrophy appropriate to the age group of the elderly.
Psychological age: It includes a person’s self-concept about his age group.
-Social age: What the elderly person represents in his society and among its members.

Second: Community awareness frameworks related to the rights of the elderly

Those of old age or the elderly suffer from a number of problems and difficulties at all social, health and psychological levels, making it easy for them to be exposed to assault, rights violations, and neglect if they are exposed to illness. This has called for the relevant international institutions to take a number of measures and charters that guarantee the protection of this group from poverty. Integrating them into achieving community development plans and ensuring that they enjoy health and social protection.

– ILO Recommendation No. 162 of 1980 on older workers emphasized the principle of equal opportunities and equal treatment of workers regardless of their age and the Prevention of discrimination while improving working conditions and the environment-Vienna International Plan of action on ageing 1982: this plan was based on basic principles, the most important of which is equity among all age groups and work for a society in which generations are integrated without dispensing with any age group with the need to pay attention to the issues of population growth and develop plans and policies to address them.

– Recommendation of the international conference held in Mexico City in 1984: the need for states to take care of the elderly as a dependent group that puts its weight on society, and groups that have provided major assistance to the economic, educational, social and cultural life of their families and are still able to provide this.

The Madrid International Plan of Action on Aging 2002 is considered the most prominent reference for countries in dealing with issues of the elderly from a perspective that goes beyond the dimensions of care and support to the human rights dimension. This plan also clarified the interrelationship between issues of the elderly on the one hand and comprehensive development on the other.

The goals that the Madrid Plan on Aging called for achieving through a comprehensive approach were:

– Promoting and protecting the universally recognized human rights and fundamental freedoms of older persons, and eliminating all forms of violence and discrimination against them.

-Eradicating poverty among the elderly.

-Enabling the elderly to participate effectively in economic, political and social life.

-Providing opportunities for individual development, self-realization and lifelong well-being.

-Achieving gender equality among the elderly and eliminating all forms of discrimination.

– Emphasizing the importance of the role of the family, and maintaining close interdependence and solidarity between generations to promote social development.

Third: indicators of aging globally and in the Arab world

– The statistics contained in the UN report for 2022, the estimates issued by the World Health Organization, and the data contained in the 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects report indicate a number of current and future indicators of the numbers of older people that can be summarized as follows:

-In 2020, the number of people aged 60 and over exceeded the number of children under 5 years old.
Between 2020 and 2030, the global population over the age of 60 will increase by 34%.

-By 2030, one-sixth of the world’s population will be over the age of 60.

-By 2050, the world population aged 60 years and over will double from one billion in 2020 to 2 billion in 2050.

-By 2050, 16% of the world’s population (one in six people in the world) will be over the age of 65, an increase of 7% (one in 11 people) from 2019.

The number of people aged 80 and over is expected to triple between 2020 and 2050 to 426 million.

In Europe and North America, a quarter of the population is expected to be over the age of 65.

– The number of individuals classified as older working age (55 to 64 years) is expected to increase from 723 million in 2021 to 1075 million in 2050, and eventually to 1218 million by 2100.

In this context, we review the top ten countries in the rates of aging around the world:

-Japan ranked first in the world in terms of the proportion of the elderly population, which amounted to 29.1% of the total population.

-Italy ranks second in the world and first in Europe in the number of elderly people, with 24.5% of the population of about 60 million people, according to data from the European statistical office “Eurostat”.

-Finland ranked third globally and second in Europe in the number of elderly people with 23.6% of the population of 5.5 million people.

-Portugal ranks fourth in the world, with the proportion of elderly people reaching about 22% of the population of more than 10 million people.

-Germany ranks fifth in the world, with the proportion of elderly people about 21% of the population of more than 83 million people.

-Bulgaria comes in sixth place with 21% of the population of 6.8 million people.

-Georgia is in seventh place, with the proportion of elderly people reaching about 20% of the population of about 3.8 million people.

– Sweden is in eighth place, with the number of elderly people reaching about 20% out of more than 10 million residents.

-Latvia comes in ninth place with an elderly population of 20% of the population of 1.8 million people.

-Croatia ranked tenth with an elderly population of about 20% of the population of about 4 million people

Fourth: The economic repercussions of population aging

The problem of population aging is at the forefront of the concerns of many major economies due to the negative effects that this phenomenon is likely to have, which the International Monetary Fund described as “the greatest global demographic challenge,” and warned of its negative effects on the economic growth of countries.

The most important economic repercussions of the high rates of aging are as follows:

-The IMF has made it clear that GDP growth is slowing, with labor force and population growth declining; This raises some concern in many countries of the world, including Japan, the United States of America, and Europe.

-A decline in the working-age population, leading to a shortage of qualified employees, with serious consequences including lower productivity, higher labor costs, delayed business expansion, and reduced international competitiveness.

– Increasing the dependency ratio: Countries with aging populations depend on small numbers of workers to collect taxes from them and spend them on high-cost health care and pensions, and this constitutes a major concern for advanced industrial countries.

-A decrease in the proportion of funds available for investment due to the increase in the proportion of funds provided for pensions.
-A large portion of the population has transformed from producers to consumers, which greatly affects society’s saving capabilities.

Fifth: indicators of aging in Egypt

The central agency for public mobilization and statistics revealed in a recent report important figures on the indicators of the numbers and characteristics of the elderly in Egypt until July 2023, which can be summarized as follows:

– The number of elderly people in Egypt reached 9 million, representing 8.6% of the total population in 2023.

– The number of male elderly reached 4.5 million people, 8.3% of the total male population, while the number of female elderly reached 4.5 million people, 8.9% of the total female population.

– The survival forecast is 68.7 years for males and 73.7 years for females in 2023.

– The number of employed elderly reached 1.2 million elderly people, representing 13.4% of the total elderly.

– 48.7% of employed elderly people are engaged in agriculture and fishing, 18.6% are engaged in wholesale and retail trade activity.

– The illiteracy rate among the elderly reached 53.2% in 2022 (39.6% of the total elderly males, 67.9% of the total elderly females), while the percentage of those with a university qualification or higher among the elderly was 10.7% in 2022 (14.5% of the total elderly males, 6.5% of the total elderly females).

– The percentage of marriage contracts among the elderly amounted to 2.2% of the total contracts.

– The percentage of divorce certificates for the elderly amounted to 10.4% of the total divorce certificates.

Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to care for the elderly

Article 83 of the 2014 constitution states that ” the state is obliged to guarantee the rights of the elderly to health, economic, social, cultural, recreational, provide an adequate pension that guarantees them a decent life, and enable them to participate in public life “ The state takes into account the needs of the elderly in its planning of public facilities, and civil society organizations are encouraged to participate in the care of the elderly, all in the manner regulated by law,”he said.

In February 2024, the House of Representatives approved the draft law submitted by the government regarding “Caring for the Rights of the Elderly,” which came in implementation of the text of Article 83 of the Constitution, which aims to protect and care for the rights of the elderly and ensure their enjoyment of all social, political, health, economic, cultural, recreational, and other rights.

The National Human Rights Strategy 2021 included provisions specifically for the rights of the elderly, which aim to expand social protection programs granted to the elderly, increase financial allocations available to government social care institutions, enhance inspection of them, enhance the elderly’s access to appropriate health care, and encourage civil society organizations to participate in formulating their policies and others. Among the provisions that guarantee the protection and empowerment of the elderly at all levels.

The state granted a security pension to the elderly who do not receive an insurance pension and have no income. The government also introduced the “Karama” program “Dignity” in 2015, which aims to extend the umbrella of social protection to include the elderly by providing a decent life for those who are unable to work. The program grants a pension to the elderly starting from Age 65 or for those who suffer from a disability.

– Establishing care homes for elderly people over the age of 60 who do not find care within their natural families for one reason or another, regardless of their financial or health level.

Seventh: proposals to support the needs of the elderly

– The establishment of a National Council for the care of the elderly that adopts the development of plans, programs and activities consistent with the actual needs of the elderly in the light of a general policy for the care of the elderly with the participation of all organs and community forces.

– Enhancing the participation of the elderly in various fields and encouraging employers to employ them, especially as many studies have indicated that this category has a great capacity for productivity if job opportunities are provided commensurate with their experience, skills and age.

– Launching a media campaign on all media in order to raise awareness of the rights of the elderly, their protection and empowerment and how to benefit from their experiences in the development of society, and then change the negative stereotype about the elderly in the labor market.

– Creating an enabling environment for the elderly to practice voluntary work in civil society organizations to ensure their empowerment and combat social exclusion.

– Expand the participation of civil society organizations and NGOs to provide better services for the elderly.

– Increase the financial allocation in the state budget and the Ministry of social solidarity for the care of the elderly so that services, programs and activities can be performed better and accommodate the increasing numbers of the elderly.

– Providing a database and accurate and sufficient information about the elderly, their numbers and the number of institutions that serve them-and its geographical distribution in a way that contributes to the development of accurate plans for services, programs and activities for the care of the elderly.

– Allocate a hotline for which the Ministry of Interior and solidarity is responsible to immediately report any cases that threaten the security and safety of the elderly and deal with them immediately.

– Continuously train service providers for the elderly and increase their awareness of diseases of the elderly, old age and dementia in order to provide a better and professional and skilled service.

– Raising pensions for the elderly in a manner commensurate with their needs and life requirements.

The post Population Aging…A Reading of Economic Indicators and Repercussions appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

In the village of Benban in Aswan, the largest solar energy station in Africa and the Middle East was established to generate the equivalent of 90% of the energy produced from the High Dam, within the framework of the strategy developed by the New and Renewable Energy Authority, which aims to increase the supply of electricity generated from renewable sources to 42% by Year 2035.

The solar energy project in Benban is one of the largest clean energy projects in the world to confront the electrical energy deficit after the events of January 2011. It was started in 2014 to address the then energy crisis and support the national electricity grid.

In this context, the Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Draya” issues a research paper that sheds light on the Benban solar energy project and its economic and social impacts, in addition to clarifying the funding agencies and those in charge of the project, and how the project contributes to achieving the 2030 sustainable development goals.

The most important results of the paper were as follows:

-The station consists of 32 individual stations, each producing 20-50 MW, and four substations, generating approximately 1.5 GW of power, to support Egypt’s goal of meeting more than a third of its energy needs by 2035 through renewable energies.

-Increasing Egypt’s share of renewable energy sources to reach 20% of the electricity produced in 2022 and 42% by 2035.

-The Benban project enabled Egypt to attract investments worth 146 million US dollars to support this project alone.

-Egypt was able to attract investments amounting to $653 million to support and develop clean energy projects.

-Aswan Governorate witnessed an alliance of 40 international companies to create the largest complex for generating electricity from solar energy, which contributes to enhancing sustainability and generating clean energy. The project received 85% financing from the Bavarian Bank of the United States.

First: Benban station and the reasons for choosing its location

The Benban plant is the fourth largest solar power plant in the world, and was implemented in cooperation with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Authority for Effective Finance. It contains 32 power generation stations built on an area of 8,843.3 acres on the Aswan-Cairo desert road in front of the village of Benban, with a capacity of 1,465 megawatts.

The Benban Solar Park was developed, and the area was divided into 41 plots of different sizes. The plots were allocated to about 30 developers who installed solar panels, inverters and other devices, and the state-owned Egyptian Electricity Holding Company built roads and infrastructure, including connections to the electricity grid. . Completely insulated GIS-type stations were constructed for the first time in Egypt, and the construction of the Benban solar power station was completed in 2019.

The New and Renewable Energy Authority selected 39 companies specialized in energy production according to international standards, including 9 international and Arab companies and 30 Egyptian companies out of a total of 200 companies that applied to implement this huge project.

It is worth noting that each of the 32 individual stations produces 20-50 megawatts, and four substations, generating approximately 1.5 gigawatts of energy, with the aim of supporting Egypt’s vision of meeting more than a third of its energy needs by 2035 through renewable energies. .
Reasons for choosing Aswan governorate:

– Availability of solar energy: Aswan has high solar radiation, which means that it receives a large amount of sunlight throughout the year, and this makes it an ideal location for a solar power plant.

– Availability of land: the Egyptian government has provided a large area of land (37.2 square kilometers) in Benban, allowing the development of a large-scale solar park. The availability of such vast territories is necessary to accommodate numerous solar power plants and infrastructure.

– Government support: the Egyptian government supports the development of renewable energy projects, including solar energy. This support includes the provision of land, facilitating permits and providing incentives to attract investment in the renewable energy sector.

– Strategic location: Aswan’s location in Upper Egypt makes it a strategic location for solar energy projects that can contribute significantly to the national energy grid, it allows the generation of clean energy that can be distributed efficiently throughout the country. Aswan is considered the future of the south according to the southern Egypt Development Studies.

Second: the economic and social effects of the solar power plant

Economic effects

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions:

Solar power generation of electricity without releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane or other atmospheric pollutants, reduces the total carbon footprint and protects the environment for future generations, making it an ideal option for a sustainable future.

A source of renewable energy and promoting green energy:

The Benban project is considered an important example of the development of green energy, as it takes advantage of the power of the sun as a sustainable and renewable source, without depleting the limited fossil fuel reserves. This is in line with the global shift towards cleaner and more sustainable energy sources.

Less water consumption:

Unlike some conventional power plants that rely on water for cooling, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems require less water consumption, which contributes to water conservation.

Reducing air and water pollution:

Solar energy production does not generate air or water pollution during operation, which contributes to improved air and water quality

Enhancing energy security

Investing in renewable energy projects such as the Benban project enhances energy security by diversifying energy sources and providing green energy sources, such as solar energy, which provide a reliable and distributed energy supply, reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports. Egypt’s share of renewable energy sources has increased to 20% of the electricity produced in 2022, and it is expected to reach 42% by 2035.

Social effects

Improving the standard of living:

The expansion of employment opportunities and economic development associated with the Benban project can lead to an improvement in the standard of living in local communities, as increasing employment opportunities leads to an increase in income levels and access to basic amenities, which has a great impact on improving the quality of life of citizens.

Community Development:

The project can contribute to the overall development of the local communities surrounding the Benban solar plant, as infrastructure improvements, educational initiatives and social programs are often implemented as part of the corporate social responsibility efforts associated with such projects.

Environmental benefits:

While the impact is primarily economic and energy-related, the transition to renewable energy, as the Benban project contributes to, carries positive impacts on the environment, as reducing dependence on fossil fuels reduces air and water pollution, contributing to the fight against climate change, and enhancing the health and well-being of the public in general.

Skills development:

The implementation of renewable energy projects often includes training programs for local residents, which helps in developing skills and providing work experience to the growing renewable energy workforce, and promotes long-term sustainability.

Third: financing, partnerships and project managers

-The project was established in partnership with the private sector and specialized international expertise, with a total cost of about 4 billion dollars, none of which was borne by the state treasury, according to the Ministry of electricity.

-Aswan governorate witnessed the alliance of 40 international companies to create the largest solar power generation complex, which contributes to promoting sustainability and generating clean energy.

-The project has received 85% financing from the Bavarian Bank of the USA for the project and shows strong financial support from international financial bodies.

– The Bavarian bank provided the United States with a large percentage of debt, while the Arab African International Bank provided 15% of the remaining debt, providing a variety of sources of financing.

-The World Bank’s IFC led an alliance of the African Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Bahrain Arab Bank, the CDC Group, the Arab European bank, the green for Growth Fund, finfund, the industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Austrian Development Bank by pledging USD 653 million to finance the construction and operation of 13 plants by six groups of private energy companies.

-The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (Miga), a member of the World Bank Group, recently approved the provision of USD 210 million in political risk insurance for 13 projects in Benban.

-The EBRD is also involved in financing 16 projects with a total capacity of 750 MW, under a USD 500 million agreement to finance renewable energy in Egypt.

-The alliance also includes the United Nations Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Dutch Development Bank, the FMO Foundation, the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the Islamic Foundation for the development of the private sector (ICD).

Fourth: the role of the station in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals 2030

– Economic development: the Benban solar park contributes to the economic development in the region by providing jobs and attracting investments.large-scale renewable energy projects often have positive economic impacts on local communities, as they are expected to achieve the highest economic growth rate in the south and represent the largest share of the population attraction in the southern Egypt development plan as a development resource.

The seventh goal: clean and affordable energy

The Benban solar power plant is directly in line with Goal 7 which aims to ensure access to modern, reliable, sustainable and up-to-date energy for all. By harnessing solar energy, the plant contributes to the generation of clean and renewable energy, reducing dependence on traditional fossil fuels, as the total solar power capacity increased by more than 9 times between 2018 and 2019, from 172 MW at the beginning of 2018 to 1,597 MW by the end of 2019.

Eighth goal: decent work and economic growth

The development and operation of the Benban solar park contributes to the creation of jobs and economic growth in the region. Large-scale renewable energy projects often require a workforce for construction, maintenance and operation, which provides jobs and supports economic development, as the project provided about 20 thousand jobs during the four-year construction period, and 6,000 permanent jobs necessary for the operation of the plant. This project has helped build solar energy expertise within local communities that will be able to benefit from this experience in upcoming projects in Kom Ombo, which is located close to Benban.

Finally, the Benban solar plant is an important step in Egypt’s use of solar energy, as it is one of the most important national projects in Egypt, which represents a milestone in the country’s march towards reliance on renewable energy, and a role model in the field of renewable energy that confirms Egypt’s commitment to transition towards a more sustainable future.. We expect that the project will bring more economic, environmental and social benefits to the Egyptian state in the near term

The post Economic and Social Impacts of “Benban” Solar Park appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

One of these conspiracies is carried out by the Afrocentric movement, which seeks to promote the idea that the ancient Egyptians were black Africans, in order to weaken the Egyptian identity and provoke divisions among Egyptians.

In this context, the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Draya” issues a research paper dealing with the dimensions and principles of the “Afrocentric” movement, and seeks to clarify and refute the statements of the movement, as well as future scenarios on the African identity of Egypt.

First: The dimensions of the Afrocentric movement

Recently, the offensive tone against the ancient Egyptian civilization has escalated, led by Afrocentric, which has striven to falsify the ancient Egyptian civilization and prove that the Egyptians usurped the land of Kemet. No ancient civilization has been spared from attempts at theft and forgery, including the ancient Egyptian civilization, which is witnessing a fierce attack by black people, who belong to what is known as (Afrocentrism) in an attempt to prove their right to their ancestors, the Pharaohs, and by extension, their antiquities and glories.

Egyptian academics specializing in archaeology and Anthropology have rejected the ideas put forward about the Negro origin of ancient Egypt, stressing that modern Egypt is a mixture of several nationalities and civilizations, including Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Romans and others. Egyptian literature confirms that the ancient Egyptians followed the course of the Nile and its sources, established kingdoms in Nubia, and their numerous trips for which they organized land and Nile communication routes with Africa.

. In general, “Afrocentric” is a global movement centered around the racial intolerance of black people. It initially appeared under the pretext of uplifting African culture and protecting it from falsification, in the belief of its followers that there are those who tampered with the narrative of global history, which resulted in their marginalization. Indeed, they began to search for any connection linking them to ancient civilizations and attribute every human achievement in Africa to those of African descent and who have dark skin only. Currently, one of their most important goals is to eliminate the white race in Africa, especially the Amazighs, Arabic speakers, and Afrikaans (Europeans in South Africa).

The Afro-centric vision of the Pharaonic civilization boils down to their belief that the Kings Of Kemet (ancient Egypt) and the then Egyptian people descended from African origins specifically “Kush”. For example, they claim that the Kings and Queens of the Pharaohs with African features and black skin, such as Queen Te, wife of Amenhotep III in the family of١٨, Akhetaten, Nefertiti, Tutankhamun, King Senusret and others.

They also believe that the current Egyptians have nothing to do with the ancient Egyptians, because the ancient Egyptians migrated to the South gradually after the Arabs entered Egypt and before them the Romans, according to their vision. According to Afrocentrism, those who currently belong to Egypt are a mixture of many nationalities that have nothing to do with the ancient Egyptian race, and even describe the current population as “Arabs who invaded and settled Egypt”.

Afrocentrk members also claim that Egyptologists are currently painting tombs white in order to falsify history, as well as their claim that Egyptologists break the noses of pharaonic statues to hide the features of the African nose, and this is all nonsense. The matter even reached the judicial arena, as members of the campaign filed cases against Egypt to prevent it from excavating Antiquities, claiming that it belonged to them.

It should be noted that since the Afrocentric members began to spread their vision in Europe and America, a state of hostility towards everything that is Egyptian has formed because they have come to see it as a “gas for their motherland”, So racism against Egyptians began to appear, as well as cases of assault on them

Second: the principles of the work of Afrocentric organizations

The Afrocentric movement is an intellectual and political movement that aims to re-evaluate and evaluate the African identity and contributions to the history of mankind.this movement is based on a criticism of the Western view that disparages African civilizations and participates in a conspiracy to hide their role in human development.

The Afrocentric movement seeks to highlight African history, culture, science, arts, religion, ethics and politics as an integral part of human heritage, and to promote unity and solidarity between African peoples and Africans in the diaspora.

The origins of the Afrocentric movement date back to the beginning of the twentieth century, when a number of African-American intellectuals and activists in America and Europe began to talk about the importance of African history and culture, the mutual influences between Africa and the rest of the world.. Among such intellectuals, mention can be made of Marcus Garvey, the founder of the movement “return to Africa”, Wu.E.B. Du Bois, founder of the “pan-African Association”, George gams, author of” the history of the pillage”, and two people Diop, author of”the cultural unity of Africa”.

The Afrocentric movement experienced a great boom, in the Sixties and seventies of the last century, with the emergence of liberation movements in Africa and the joining of a group of intellectuals and academics in Europe and America.. Among these intellectuals, mention can be made of Maulavi Keti Asante, founder of the”Institute of Afrocentric studies”, and shkalan gehez, author of”African roots”.

The Afrocentric movement is based on a set of principles and concepts that define its vision and goals.. Among these principles, it is possible to mention:

Afrocentrism is an intellectual and emotional attitude that puts Africa and the African at the center of attention and appreciation, and looks at the world from an African perspective, and the African is an actor and not a recipient in history and culture.

Afrosala is a concept that refers to the connection and belonging between Africans and Africans in the diaspora, solidarity and cooperation between them in the face of common challenges, and the pursuit of unity and integration between them at the political, economic and cultural levels.
Afro-image: it is a concept that refers to the self-image of the African and Africans in the diaspora, which expresses an African identity, dignity, confidence and creativity, and is based on African history, culture, science, arts, religion and ethics.

Afro-demand: is a concept that refers to the claims and rights advocated by Africans and Africans in the diaspora, which include: independence and sovereignty over their land, compensation for historical injustices suffered, recognition of their role in human history, access to fair opportunities in education, health, work and wealth.
Afrocentrism or Afrocentric: it is also called the African-centric movement, and was founded by the African-American activist “Molefi Asante” in the eighties according to the British Encyclopedia Britannica . The movement seeks to “highlight the identity and contributions of African cultures to world history”. It is active in the United States, in some European countries and among groups of African descent. Among the theories promoted by supporters of the movement is “that the origin of the Egyptian civilization is only African”

Third: the statements of the movement and its refutation

According to Afrocentrism, African history and culture began in ancient Egypt, which was the cradle of world civilization until its ideas and technologies were stolen and its track record of achievements was obscured by Europeans. They argue that the renewed interest in this culture can remind African-Americans that their own culture, devalued by Americans of European descent, has an ancient and ancient heritage. “There is absolutely no evidence for these claims,” they base their claims on Kush’s rule of Egypt in the late era, in the Twenty-Fifth Dynasty, but he ruled for a very short time and therefore there is no evidence that the origin of the Egyptians is a definitive black element.

Egyptian academics specializing in archaeology and Anthropology have rejected the ideas put forward about the Negro origin of ancient Egypt, stressing that modern Egypt is a mixture of several nationalities and civilizations, including Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Romans and others.

In general, it can be said that “Afrocentric” is a movement that is engaged in a confrontation on two fronts, the first with traditional Western thought, which it accuses of stealing “ancient Egyptian civilization,” and the second with Egypt, which attributed all of its Pharaonic civilization to blacks, which called on some – especially within Egypt – to Warning against its ideas, in exchange for initiatives that stress that Egyptian interests necessarily require searching for a new beginning with Africans that begins with changing the negative perceptions between the two parties.

Fourth: the economic effects on Egypt

The economic component plays a challenge to Egypt’s African identity. There are economic factors that have led to the deepening of the gap in Egypt’s African identity, including the emergence of oil in the Arab Gulf countries, where oil came in the Arab countries to increase exchange, migration, tourism and interaction between Egypt and the Arab world before and more than ever before, oil has brought the Arabian Peninsula out of isolation imposed on it by the desert and poverty.

At the same time, Egyptian labor, which in turn was the largest factor in the urbanization and development of the entire Arabian Peninsula, contributed to the increasing Arab rapprochement. For the first time, human migration came out of Egypt, and for the first time, tourism came out of the Arabian Peninsula, and Egypt received the largest stream of Arab summer tourism, both from the Gulf countries, especially from Saudi Arabia. While African tourists represented only about 3 % of the total tourists to Egypt, the Egyptian tourist to South Africa ranked 32nd out of a total of 35 countries.

On the other hand, the volume and weight of temporary or working Egyptian migration in Arab countries is greater, as the trend towards migration entails reducing the population pressure in Egypt in the fifties in support of the Arab trend as well as cash transfers from migrants.

Egypt continued to import foreign trade and was hit by contraction and decline as a result of the emergence of African markets open to competition and the absence of Egyptian investments in natural resources and raw materials.

Fifth: future scenarios on the African identity of Egypt

Linear directional scenario: the continuation of the state of Egypt’s lack of awareness of African identity is assumed based on the presumption of the continuation of the variables that control the Egyptian perception of African identity, the most important of these variables, which means that Egyptians do not psychologically accept association with Negroes.

Optimistic reform scenario: this scenario focuses on changes and reforms in the Egyptians ‘ perception of African identity, in the sense of a new arrangement in the direction of the Egyptian perception of African identity in order to improve the course of Egyptian-African relations. In addition, there will be a rapprochement between the Arab and African identities and this situation will be stabilized, in the sense of a connecting line between Africa and the Arabs through the revival of Arab-African relations. In other words, there is no conflict and struggle between multiple circles of affiliation, as the Egyptian is pharaonic, Arab, African, Islamic and Middle Eastern, all of which are mutually exclusive circles of affiliation, and this depends on the ability of the political leadership in Egypt to manage this situation.

The pessimistic transformation scenario means that the African identity of Egypt will be exposed to many risks, threats and challenges, resulting in crises in Egyptian-African relations.

Sixth: proposed ways in the light of the Africa Development Plan

The ability to implement and achieve the success of Agenda 2063 requires a number of critical enablers of transformation in Africa and are prerequisites for success, these are the following:

1-continuous mobilization of the African people and achieving effective communication and awareness, sustainable and inclusive social dialogue on Agenda 2063.

2-mobilizing African resources to finance and accelerate the transformation process, achieve peace and security, develop infrastructure, democratic governance and strengthen continental institutions.

3-building a vision, responsible and accountable leadership and democratic development institutions through mechanisms capable of Planning, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation at all levels.

4-activating the planning capacities for African Development, rebuilding public services in the functional and professional fields and strengthening regional and continental institutions.

5-working to change attitudes and mentalities to promote African values through self-reliance, solidarity, hard and collective work, and building on African successes and best practices to form the African model of transformation and development.

The authors of the agenda believe that it differs from previous initiatives, and this is due to: the involvement of African citizens, civil society institutions, regional groupings and academic institutions, that is, following a bottom-up approach, there were intensive consultations with African citizens before the agenda was set; this enhances the goals and steps of the implementation of the initiative and its outputs, and promote the development of an African Agenda for socio-economic transformation, this work is not the work of bureaucrats, but an agenda driven by the voices of African peoples reflecting to the Africa they want.

There are a number of factors for the success of the effective implementation of this agenda, the most prominent of which are the following:

1-political commitment by the leaders of African countries, and effective strategic planning to ensure coordination between national, regional and continental plans in the short, medium and long term.

2-achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the countries of the continent.

3-developing the development capacity of countries, strengthening the administrative apparatus and existing institutions in the state, and including the participation of citizens within the framework of this agenda with a focus on the empowerment of women and youth.

4-implementing deep and effective reforms that include conflict resolution, reducing the accumulated debts of the countries of the continent, establishing strong infrastructure for development, removing the risk of famines that hit the continent, empowering young people in order to form a conscious future leadership of the African continent

The post “Afrocentric” Movement and Future scenarios on Egypt’s African Identity appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

In this context, the research paper aims to analyze the regional and international variables to which the Egyptian economy is exposed, clarify the economic effects of these variables on it, as well as shed light on the policies and procedures that the Egyptian economy can follow. Finally, the research paper presents several proposed solutions to enhance the performance of the economy and support its ability to withstand external shocks.

The most important solutions proposed by the paper to enhance the performance of the Egyptian economy were as follows:
-Increase the volume of national projects with a dollar yield and temporarily stop financing projects that need dollar spending.

-Expanding support to the Egyptian industrial sector by paying attention to the strategy of deepening local manufacturing.

-The current boycott campaigns are a golden opportunity for local products to increase their market space through increasing demand for local products.

-The government should focus on increasing the competitiveness and quality of exports and reducing the obstacles facing exporters as exports are a means of obtaining foreign exchange.

-Raising the interest rate will lead to a decline in investment, contraction of economic activity and increasing unemployment.

-Easing the restrictions on obtaining foreign exchange, which the private sector needs to obtain the raw materials necessary for production.

First: Analysis of the regional and international changes to which the Egyptian economy is exposed

The Egyptian economy was subjected to successive shocks (from the corona pandemic to the war in Ukraine). Where it influenced the gains of the economic reform plan, which began since 2016. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has led to significant repercussions on the Egyptian economy as it struggles to recover from the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, as high inflation rates, declining wheat imports and dwindling tourist flow come on top of the negative consequences of this war. Thus, the risk of food insecurity has increased due to the fact that Egypt’s food imports are linked to these two countries.

Egypt sought a new loan from the International Monetary Fund in December 2022 in order to fill part of the financing gap.

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved a 46-month agreement with Egypt under the Extended Fund Facility worth approximately US$3 billion. The program includes a comprehensive package of policies aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and achieving comprehensive growth led by the private sector. The policy package includes a permanent shift to a flexible exchange rate system, a monetary policy aimed at gradually reducing inflation, fiscal consolidation to ensure a decline in the path of public debt while strengthening social safety nets to protect vulnerable groups, and broad structural reforms.

The “Extended Fund Facility” is expected to encourage the availability of more funding for Egypt from its international and regional partners. Despite the promising goals of the IMF loan, however, the transition to a flexible exchange rate policy led to a significant devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which negatively affected the purchasing power of Egyptians and the high import bill. Therefore, the Egyptian government has turned to increasing support for the poorest groups.

It should be noted that China is the second largest economy in the world after the United States, according to gross domestic product, and the world’s number one trading power, as well as being one of the most important engines of global economic growth, and its currency has become one of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies, starting in October 2016. China’s national income is more than 10.4 trillion dollars, compared to 17.4 trillion dollars for the United States of America. China has a purchasing power equivalent to more than 15 trillion dollars, an estimated 3.7 trillion dollars in hard currency and gold reserves, a third of which is held in US Treasury bonds. China is seeking to reduce its dependence on the dollar, after the Chinese currency covers about 10% of World Trade. Since 2015, China’s arms exports to Africa have doubled, surpassing the US share and accounting for 17% of the African market.

China and the United States are locked in an escalating trade war that has seen rounds of tariffs imposed on each other’s imports, as well as increasingly strained relations due to disagreements over issues such as arms sales and military activity in the South China Sea.

Regarding the trade balance between China and the United States, it tends in favor of Beijing, whose trade surplus exceeded $375 billion in its exchanges with Washington in 2021, noting that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries exceeded $600 billion in 2020, and US exports to China in 2021 amounted to about $116.2 billion, while China’s exports to the United States amounted to about $492 billion in the same year. The United States imports aluminum, steel, electronics, clothing, and machinery from China, while China is the largest importer of soybeans from the United States.

Second: The economic impacts of current international and regional changes on Egypt

The instability and turmoil in the monetary policy of major countries have prompted an exodus of indirect investments in emerging markets, including Egypt, where about 20 billion dollars have flowed out since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis due to interest rate hikes in developed countries, which led to a sharp drop in the exchange rates of the local currency accompanied by record inflation levels as a result of the increase in the cost of imports, but the positive economic growth achieved over the past three years, on the one hand, as well as reforms in the balance of trade, especially the balance of energy, on the other, have pushed the Egyptian economy somewhat away from the severity of the external shock, which will performed Due to high energy and food prices, which undermined economic growth.

-Opportunities – Europe’s increasing dependence on Russian energy essentially pushes European governments to increase their investment portfolio with Egypt in the field of energy, especially natural gas in the short term and electricity in the medium and long term.

-The increasing dependence over the last two decades on factories in China and Southeast Asia has prompted major companies in the world, especially European and American companies, to reconsider the distribution of their factories and production lines around the world, which makes the reforms that Egypt implemented in infrastructure an opportunity to attract the largest possible amount of these investments, as well as About the availability and sustainability of energy on the one hand, and the low cost of labor on the other hand.

Challenges:

-Slowing economic growth:

The slowdown in global economic growth may lead to a recession that includes emerging economies, which may lead to lowering expectations for economic growth. According to the expectations of international institutions, the Egyptian economy is growing at a rate of 5.6% for the current year, amid expectations of a slowdown to reach 4.6% for next year.

-Increase in the general level of prices:

The rise in the general level of prices globally led to a further rise in prices at the local level, which in turn leads to an increase in the state’s obligations towards the most vulnerable groups, and increases the size of the general budget, which requires more borrowing, as the total budget deficit reached about 6.2%. As a percentage of GDP, the following figure indicates the relative distribution of public expenditures in the current budget 2022/2023.

High external public debt:

Egypt’s external public debt reached about $145.5 billion at the end of December from the level of $137.4 billion at the end of last September, an increase of about 5.8%, which may hinder the volume of spending allocated to investments, as interest payments amounted to about 45% of total revenues and about 33%. % of total public expenditures and the equivalent of 8% of the gross domestic product for the current fiscal year. The following figure shows the development of both interest payments on the one hand and the current and total deficit on the other hand.

Challenges of foreign trade:

The effects of the slowdown in international trade appear in two directions. The first is an increase in the import bill as a result of the rise in the price of oil, and about 20 billion pounds to move the exchange rate. The second trend is a decrease in the expected returns from Suez Canal revenues, as a result of the decline in the growth rate of global trade. It is expected that trade growth will decline. The global rate will reach 4.9% in 2023 compared to the current year’s estimated 6.7%, and the rise in interest rates by 100 basis points will contribute to increasing the general budget deficit by about 28 billion pounds.

Third: Policies and procedures that the Egyptian economy can follow

Egypt should resort to a set of policies and procedures to confront international and regional changes at the local level as follows:-

1-to make more efforts to protect the production and marketing activities necessary to meet local and global demand, and that supply chains continue to operate, which means protecting the existing infrastructure for processing crops, livestock and food, and other logistics systems.

2-finding new and more diverse food suppliers, relying on the existing stocks of food commodities and diversifying local production to ensure that people get healthy dietary patterns.

3-expanding the scope of social safety nets to protect the vulnerable.many will be pushed into the cycle of poverty and hunger by the ongoing conflict, which requires the provision of appropriate and targeted social protection programs.

4-avoiding ad hoc policy responses.reducing import tariffs or using export restrictions would help to address food security challenges.

5-enhancing transparency in markets and encouraging dialogue: ensuring greater transparency and information on the state of global markets will help the government and investors to make informed decisions in light of the fluctuations in the agricultural commodity markets.

Fourth:  proposed solutions to enhance the performance of the Egyptian economy and support its ability to face external shocks:

-Increase the volume of national projects with a dollar yield and temporarily stop financing projects that need dollar spending. Sources of dollar liquidity should be diversified more quickly and focus on sources that do not require large infrastructure.
– Expanding support to the Egyptian industrial sector by paying attention to the strategy of deepening local manufacturing. It is necessary to provide alternatives to imports in the Egyptian market to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.

-Although the devaluation of the currency makes imports more expensive, it makes exports cheaper and increases global demand for them. But the government should take steps to increase the competitiveness and quality of exports, and reduce the obstacles facing exporters as exports are a means of obtaining foreign exchange. There should be more subsidies to support small and medium-sized enterprises in order to help them produce for export.

– -Raising the interest rate by the central bank is not the only solution to curb inflation, especially since inflation is not caused by an increase in demand, but by rising costs and shocks to global supply chains. On the contrary, raising the interest rate will lead to a decline in investment, contraction of economic activity and increasing unemployment.

– -Easing the restrictions on obtaining foreign exchange, which the private sector needs to obtain the raw materials necessary for production. In addition, the private sector is now facing a high cost of financing due to the tightening of monetary policy.

-Reducing the government’s crowding out of the private sector in obtaining local credit, as the bulk of local credit is allocated to the government and the public business sector and represents about 60% of local credit

The post The Egyptian Economy in light of International and Regional Changes: Scenarios and Solutions appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

Since 2014 until now, the pension system in Egypt has witnessed many developments that have made it capable of providing social protection, as it has increased successively and exceptionally in light of successive economic crises and rising costs of living, within the framework of the state’s keenness to achieve social protection for the most needy groups and improve their economic conditions. and social life to enable them to live a decent life.

In this context, the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Derayah ” presents this research paper, which relied on the inductive approach in addressing the reality of the pension system over the past 9 years, where it highlighted pension systems, fundamental legislative reforms and executive decisions that contributed to improving the conditions of pensioners, and giving them a set of gains and benefits that had a tangible positive impact on their lives, through the following four axes:

The first axis: pension systems in Egypt

The second axis: legislative reforms and executive decisions to improve the pension system

The third axis: the gains of pensioners from 2014 to 2023

The fourth axis: the impact of those gains on pensioners

The research paper has reached a set of results, the most important of which are:

-The state has succeeded in providing the necessary financial liquidity to serve pensioners since the signing of the financial entanglement agreement between the National Authority for social insurance and the state treasury, according to which about 45 trillion pounds will be paid to the authority over 50 years from 2019
.
-The government’s contributions to pension funds increased from 29.2 billion pounds in 2013-2014, to 202 billion pounds in the budget of the current year 2023-2024, an increase of about 592%.
-The value of pensions increased 10 times during the period from 2014 to 2023, and the value of pensions disbursed increased from 86.5 billion pounds in 2013/2014 to 340 billion pounds in 2022/2023, an increase of 293%.
-The minimum and maximum value of the severance pension has witnessed a significant increase, with the minimum in 2023 reaching about 1.275 pounds compared to 450 pounds in 2015, and the maximum 10.355 compared to 2.360 pounds in 2015.

-The “Social Security ” pension allocations increased to reach 31 billion pounds in the 2023/2024 budget, compared to 22 billion pounds in the 2022/2023 budget, and 19 billion pounds in the 2021/2022 budget.
-The increase of the Takaful and Karama pension during 2023 reached 40%, as the president of the Republic decided to increase it by 25% in March, and 15% in September, so that the “Takaful” pension would rise after the September 2023 increase to reach 630 pounds instead of 450 pounds, and the “Karama” pension for the elderly and people with disabilities reached 490 pounds instead of 350 pounds.

The first axis: pension systems:

The pension map was characterized by complexity and diversity, as its types varied as follows:

1: insurance pension

-It is a pension system based on contributions from subscribers for more than half a century, specifically since the 1960s. It has developed greatly over the past decades and played an important role in protecting large sectors of Egyptians, especially those who work in the formal sector, as its umbrella extended to a large number of citizens. Whether directly (the insured and the pensioner) or indirectly (family members).

-Workers are entitled to a social insurance pension after they pay insurance contributions for a specific period determined by the regulating law. These contributions are collected in insurance and pension funds, which subsequently provide the amounts of due pensions. The resources of these funds are the insurance contributions, the interest due thereon, and any profits resulting from investing the money in those funds. .

-The government allocates annual support to these funds from the state’s general budget to cover any deficit in collected contributions, and to finance the increases due to pensions, which are issued by law from the House of Representatives, or by a decision from the President of the Republic if the House of Representatives is not in session.

2: Social pension

-It is a security pension that is conditional on the social status of the citizen, and is not based on financial contributions, meaning that it is not financed through wage deductions. It is granted to poor families in accordance with the controls stipulated by the law. It may not be combined with any other type of pension, and its value is determined based on the number of pensions. Members of the beneficiary family.

The services of the social security system in Egypt include:

– Monthly security assistance, which is disbursed to poor families according to the study of the economic and social situation of the family, and the value of these assistance varies according to the number of family members.
– Exceptional assistance, which is a one-time assistance during the year for families benefiting from the Social Security Law, and is allocated for educational expenses, and its value varies from one stage of study to another, including exceptional assistance also funeral expenses, status expenses and urgent emergencies.
– A child’s pension, which is a pension issued to a child up to the age of 18 and in specific cases, namely orphaned children or children of unknown parentage, children of a breadwinner or divorced mother if she marries or dies, children of legally detained, imprisoned or imprisoned for at least a month.
– The monthly scholarship that is provided to the children of the beneficiaries of the guarantee assistance.
– Security projects to help engage in the labor market.
– Compensation, which is very diverse, and deals with disasters that affect citizens, whether individual or collective, such as desertification and others.

3: irregular employment pension

-The social insurance and Pensions Law 148 of 2019 included irregular employment of people without regular salaries in social insurance in exchange for paying 9% of the minimum wage, and those who wish to receive a pension with a minimum of 900 pounds, must register himself at the competent insurance office, and pay 72 pounds per month.

-A worker belonging to the category of irregular employment is entitled to a pension after reaching old age, with a contribution period for old-age, disability and death insurance of at least 180 months (15 years), including a contribution period of at least 120 months (10 years).

-According to the new social insurance law, the total pension for irregular employment may exceed 80% of the maximum contribution wage on the due date, and not less than 65% of it, in accordance with the new insurance and Pensions Law.

-According to the law, the categories of the labor force of irregular employment, include the following:

-Memorizers of the Holy Quran and reciters

-Domestic servants and the like

-Deportation workers

-Temporary workers in agriculture both in fields and orchards

-Workers in livestock or small animal and poultry farming projects

-Owners of built-up real estate whose share of the annual income is less than the category of the minimum subscription wage

-Non-possessor owners of agricultural land whose ownership is less than an acre

-Hymnists and other servants of the church

-Small self-employed people such as street vendors, car clubs, newspaper distributors, traveling shoe wipers, and other similar categories.

-Holders of agricultural land whose holding area is less than an acre, whether landlords or tenants by rent.

4: Private sector pension

Law No. 148 of 2019 and its executive regulations obligated the employer to pay the contributions due for his workers, and to submit an insured subscription application within two weeks of any worker joining his job. The law stipulates that the worker reaches retirement at the age of sixty. It also specifies cases in which the retirement age may extend beyond the age of 60 years, and stipulates that the worker is entitled to the period of his work after the age of sixty.

5: Exceptional pension

The exceptional pensions issued by Law No. 71 of 1964 mean either granting an exceptional pension to someone who has not previously received a pension, or improving the pension of someone who has previously received a pension.

The categories benefiting from the Exceptional Pensions Law are:

1 – Civilian workers whose service in the state’s administrative apparatus, public bodies, public institutions, or economic units affiliated to them has ended, or for those whose families have died.

2- Those who performed great services for the country or the families of those who died.

3 – Families of those who died in an accident considered a public disaster.

6: Solidarity and dignity pension

The “Takaful” program is designed as a conditional cash transfer program that provides income to support poor families with children under 18 years of age. The assistance includes providing a monthly salary and providing health care for pregnant mothers and pre-school children.

As for the “Karama” program, it was designed as an unconditional cash transfer program for the elderly poor (65 years and over), and the disabled with a disability rate starting from 50% that prevents them from working and earning, and who do not have a fixed income.

The second axis:

legislative reforms and executive decisions to improve the pension system
The 2014 Constitution was filled with a number of articles that preserved the rights of pensioners. Article 17 was clear in its dealings with social insurance, social security, and providing a pension for irregular workers, as it stipulated: “The state shall guarantee the provision of social insurance services.” Every citizen who does not enjoy the social insurance system has the right to social security, which guarantees him a decent life, if he is unable to support himself and his family, and in cases of inability to work, old age, and unemployment. The state works to provide an appropriate livelihood for small farmers, agricultural workers, fishermen, and irregular workers, in accordance with the law.

Laws and executive decisions:

-Decree of the president of the Republic by Law No. 118 of 2014 on exempting establishments and insured persons from the additional amounts due to them to the National Social Insurance Authority
.
-The decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 197 of 2014 to increase the planned rate of pensions in 2007 by 5% to 15% as of 1/7/2007 for pensions accrued before this date.

The decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 120 of 2014 to amend the social insurance law to cancel the deprivation of early pensioners of the increase prescribed by Article 165 to improve low pensions, the amendment was retroactive from the date of 1/7/2013 and the disbursement of financial differences as of this date.

-Decision of the president of the Republic No. 190 of 2014 to increase pensions by 10% of the total pension due to the pensioner on 30/6/2014.
-Decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 29 of 2015 to increase pensions starting from 1/7/2015 by 10%.

-Law No. 60 of 2016 increasing pensions by 10% as of July 2016 pensions accrued before this date.

-Decision of the Ministry of social solidarity No. 374 of 2017 on the rules for disbursing the pension increase established by Law No. 80 of 2017, provided that the increase should be by 15% of the total pension payable to the pensioner on 30/6/2017, and the minimum increase should be 150 pounds and the maximum 550 pounds.

– Presidential Decision No. 260 of 2021 to increase pensions, effective 7/1/2021, by 13%.

– Presidential Decision No. 139 of 2022 to increase pensions by 13%, effective April 1, 2022.

– Presidential Decision No. 187 of 2023 to increase pensions, effective April 1, 2023, by 15%.

-The President of the Republic’s decision to increase the exceptional cost of living allowance, to become “600” pounds, instead of “300” pounds, for all employees of the state’s administrative apparatus, economic bodies, business sector companies and the public sector.

-Implementing the rule of financial inclusion for pensioners and beneficiaries, and mechanizing the collection of insurance benefits by linking with the electronic collection and payment center at the Ministry of Finance, which saves time, effort, and speed of disbursement.

The third axis: the earnings of pensioners and their beneficiaries

We can review the most important gains of pensioners based on contributors’ contributions from 2014 until 2023, as follows:

The value of pensions increased 10 times during the period from 2014 to 2023, and the following table shows the percentage increases approved by the government in accordance with the announced annual increases:

The value of annual increases during the period from 2014 to 2023

We refer here to raising the minimum insurance subscription wage in January 2023 to be 1,700 pounds, compared to 1,400 in 2022, and 1,200 in 2021, and raising the maximum insurance subscription wage to be 10,900 pounds, compared to 9,400 in 2022, and 8,100 pounds in 2021.

The steady increase in the number of civilian pensioners in the period from (2014-2023) and its annual value in billions

As of October 1, 2023, the number of pensioners and their beneficiaries amounted to 11,117,382, and the number of Pension Disbursement outlets amounted to 9,556 outlets.

The minimum and maximum value of the severance pension has witnessed a significant increase, as the increases have evolved from 2014 to 2023 as follows:
– The minimum pension amounted to 450 pounds in 2014, while the maximum was 2082 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 450 pounds in 2015, and the maximum 2360 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 500 pounds in 2016, and the maximum 2680 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 500 pounds in 2017, and the maximum 3040 pounds.

– The minimum pension amounted to 750 pounds in 2018, and the maximum to 3448 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 900 pounds in 2019, and the maximum 4568 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 910 pounds in 2020, and the maximum 5600 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 900 pounds in 2021, and the maximum 6480 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 910 pounds in 2022, and the maximum 7520 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 1275 pounds in 2023, and the maximum 10355 pounds.

Social Security pension allocations increased to 31 billion pounds in the 2023/2024 budget, compared to 22 billion pounds in the 2022/2023 budget, and 19 billion pounds in the 2021/2022 budget.

The increase in the Takaful and Karama pension during the year 2023 amounted to about 40%, as the President of the Republic decided to increase it by 25% in March, and 15% in September, so that the “Takaful” pension increased after the September 2023 increase to reach 630 pounds instead of 450 pounds, and the “Karama” pension amounted to “For the elderly and people with disabilities, 490 pounds instead of 350 pounds.

Fourth axis: The impact of these gains on pensioners:

We can review the impact of the gains obtained by pensioners and their beneficiaries, as follows:

-The social protection plan approved by the Egyptian state since 2014 has contributed to the decline in poverty rates in Egypt to 29.7% in 2019/2020 compared to 32.5% in 2017/2018, with a decrease of 2.8%, which is an indicator of the success of the state’s efforts to achieve social justice in conjunction with the economic reforms implemented and focused on the social dimension of development.

-Assistance in providing citizens with a more balanced life at the psychological and social level, strengthening their sense of belonging, acceptance and acceptance from society and the surrounding environment, and keenness to integrate into society.

-An independent impact assessment conducted by the International Institute for Food Policy Research showed that the “Takaful and Karama” program had an impressive impact on women’s empowerment and economic inclusion, through a set of indicators, the most important of which were:

-Increase the consumption of families benefiting from Takaful from 7.3% to 8.4%, compared to families that do not participate in the program.

-Reducing by 12 percentage points the probability of families in the Takaful program slipping below the poverty line.

-A significant increase (from 8.3% to 8.9%) in the value of monthly food consumption for Takaful beneficiaries.

-The “Takaful” program has increased the rate of standard deviation of weight relative to height, which is a measure of the short-term nutritional status of children under the age of two, that is, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points in the likelihood that a child under the age of five has been treated for malnutrition, and has also led to a decrease in stunting and wasting rates, according to estimates of the demographic and Health Survey issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2019.

-The program has also led to an increase in spending on the educational process of their children and the provision of school supplies and means of transportation to school, as the impact assessment indicators showed that 100% of the children of “Takaful” families are enrolled in schools, including 4.5 million children, including 50% at the primary stage, 20% at the preparatory stage, 9% at the secondary stage, in addition to 22% children under the age of Education.

-The “Takaful and Dignity” program has shown positive results related to the empowerment of women and their sense of dignity, with a decrease in financial pressures on the family, as we find, according to some statements by the minister of social solidarity, that 75% of Takaful and dignity card holders are women

The post Pension System in Egypt…Facts and Gains appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.