One of these conspiracies is carried out by the Afrocentric movement, which seeks to promote the idea that the ancient Egyptians were black Africans, in order to weaken the Egyptian identity and provoke divisions among Egyptians.

In this context, the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Draya” issues a research paper dealing with the dimensions and principles of the “Afrocentric” movement, and seeks to clarify and refute the statements of the movement, as well as future scenarios on the African identity of Egypt.

First: The dimensions of the Afrocentric movement

Recently, the offensive tone against the ancient Egyptian civilization has escalated, led by Afrocentric, which has striven to falsify the ancient Egyptian civilization and prove that the Egyptians usurped the land of Kemet. No ancient civilization has been spared from attempts at theft and forgery, including the ancient Egyptian civilization, which is witnessing a fierce attack by black people, who belong to what is known as (Afrocentrism) in an attempt to prove their right to their ancestors, the Pharaohs, and by extension, their antiquities and glories.

Egyptian academics specializing in archaeology and Anthropology have rejected the ideas put forward about the Negro origin of ancient Egypt, stressing that modern Egypt is a mixture of several nationalities and civilizations, including Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Romans and others. Egyptian literature confirms that the ancient Egyptians followed the course of the Nile and its sources, established kingdoms in Nubia, and their numerous trips for which they organized land and Nile communication routes with Africa.

. In general, “Afrocentric” is a global movement centered around the racial intolerance of black people. It initially appeared under the pretext of uplifting African culture and protecting it from falsification, in the belief of its followers that there are those who tampered with the narrative of global history, which resulted in their marginalization. Indeed, they began to search for any connection linking them to ancient civilizations and attribute every human achievement in Africa to those of African descent and who have dark skin only. Currently, one of their most important goals is to eliminate the white race in Africa, especially the Amazighs, Arabic speakers, and Afrikaans (Europeans in South Africa).

The Afro-centric vision of the Pharaonic civilization boils down to their belief that the Kings Of Kemet (ancient Egypt) and the then Egyptian people descended from African origins specifically “Kush”. For example, they claim that the Kings and Queens of the Pharaohs with African features and black skin, such as Queen Te, wife of Amenhotep III in the family of١٨, Akhetaten, Nefertiti, Tutankhamun, King Senusret and others.

They also believe that the current Egyptians have nothing to do with the ancient Egyptians, because the ancient Egyptians migrated to the South gradually after the Arabs entered Egypt and before them the Romans, according to their vision. According to Afrocentrism, those who currently belong to Egypt are a mixture of many nationalities that have nothing to do with the ancient Egyptian race, and even describe the current population as “Arabs who invaded and settled Egypt”.

Afrocentrk members also claim that Egyptologists are currently painting tombs white in order to falsify history, as well as their claim that Egyptologists break the noses of pharaonic statues to hide the features of the African nose, and this is all nonsense. The matter even reached the judicial arena, as members of the campaign filed cases against Egypt to prevent it from excavating Antiquities, claiming that it belonged to them.

It should be noted that since the Afrocentric members began to spread their vision in Europe and America, a state of hostility towards everything that is Egyptian has formed because they have come to see it as a “gas for their motherland”, So racism against Egyptians began to appear, as well as cases of assault on them

Second: the principles of the work of Afrocentric organizations

The Afrocentric movement is an intellectual and political movement that aims to re-evaluate and evaluate the African identity and contributions to the history of mankind.this movement is based on a criticism of the Western view that disparages African civilizations and participates in a conspiracy to hide their role in human development.

The Afrocentric movement seeks to highlight African history, culture, science, arts, religion, ethics and politics as an integral part of human heritage, and to promote unity and solidarity between African peoples and Africans in the diaspora.

The origins of the Afrocentric movement date back to the beginning of the twentieth century, when a number of African-American intellectuals and activists in America and Europe began to talk about the importance of African history and culture, the mutual influences between Africa and the rest of the world.. Among such intellectuals, mention can be made of Marcus Garvey, the founder of the movement “return to Africa”, Wu.E.B. Du Bois, founder of the “pan-African Association”, George gams, author of” the history of the pillage”, and two people Diop, author of”the cultural unity of Africa”.

The Afrocentric movement experienced a great boom, in the Sixties and seventies of the last century, with the emergence of liberation movements in Africa and the joining of a group of intellectuals and academics in Europe and America.. Among these intellectuals, mention can be made of Maulavi Keti Asante, founder of the”Institute of Afrocentric studies”, and shkalan gehez, author of”African roots”.

The Afrocentric movement is based on a set of principles and concepts that define its vision and goals.. Among these principles, it is possible to mention:

Afrocentrism is an intellectual and emotional attitude that puts Africa and the African at the center of attention and appreciation, and looks at the world from an African perspective, and the African is an actor and not a recipient in history and culture.

Afrosala is a concept that refers to the connection and belonging between Africans and Africans in the diaspora, solidarity and cooperation between them in the face of common challenges, and the pursuit of unity and integration between them at the political, economic and cultural levels.
Afro-image: it is a concept that refers to the self-image of the African and Africans in the diaspora, which expresses an African identity, dignity, confidence and creativity, and is based on African history, culture, science, arts, religion and ethics.

Afro-demand: is a concept that refers to the claims and rights advocated by Africans and Africans in the diaspora, which include: independence and sovereignty over their land, compensation for historical injustices suffered, recognition of their role in human history, access to fair opportunities in education, health, work and wealth.
Afrocentrism or Afrocentric: it is also called the African-centric movement, and was founded by the African-American activist “Molefi Asante” in the eighties according to the British Encyclopedia Britannica . The movement seeks to “highlight the identity and contributions of African cultures to world history”. It is active in the United States, in some European countries and among groups of African descent. Among the theories promoted by supporters of the movement is “that the origin of the Egyptian civilization is only African”

Third: the statements of the movement and its refutation

According to Afrocentrism, African history and culture began in ancient Egypt, which was the cradle of world civilization until its ideas and technologies were stolen and its track record of achievements was obscured by Europeans. They argue that the renewed interest in this culture can remind African-Americans that their own culture, devalued by Americans of European descent, has an ancient and ancient heritage. “There is absolutely no evidence for these claims,” they base their claims on Kush’s rule of Egypt in the late era, in the Twenty-Fifth Dynasty, but he ruled for a very short time and therefore there is no evidence that the origin of the Egyptians is a definitive black element.

Egyptian academics specializing in archaeology and Anthropology have rejected the ideas put forward about the Negro origin of ancient Egypt, stressing that modern Egypt is a mixture of several nationalities and civilizations, including Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Romans and others.

In general, it can be said that “Afrocentric” is a movement that is engaged in a confrontation on two fronts, the first with traditional Western thought, which it accuses of stealing “ancient Egyptian civilization,” and the second with Egypt, which attributed all of its Pharaonic civilization to blacks, which called on some – especially within Egypt – to Warning against its ideas, in exchange for initiatives that stress that Egyptian interests necessarily require searching for a new beginning with Africans that begins with changing the negative perceptions between the two parties.

Fourth: the economic effects on Egypt

The economic component plays a challenge to Egypt’s African identity. There are economic factors that have led to the deepening of the gap in Egypt’s African identity, including the emergence of oil in the Arab Gulf countries, where oil came in the Arab countries to increase exchange, migration, tourism and interaction between Egypt and the Arab world before and more than ever before, oil has brought the Arabian Peninsula out of isolation imposed on it by the desert and poverty.

At the same time, Egyptian labor, which in turn was the largest factor in the urbanization and development of the entire Arabian Peninsula, contributed to the increasing Arab rapprochement. For the first time, human migration came out of Egypt, and for the first time, tourism came out of the Arabian Peninsula, and Egypt received the largest stream of Arab summer tourism, both from the Gulf countries, especially from Saudi Arabia. While African tourists represented only about 3 % of the total tourists to Egypt, the Egyptian tourist to South Africa ranked 32nd out of a total of 35 countries.

On the other hand, the volume and weight of temporary or working Egyptian migration in Arab countries is greater, as the trend towards migration entails reducing the population pressure in Egypt in the fifties in support of the Arab trend as well as cash transfers from migrants.

Egypt continued to import foreign trade and was hit by contraction and decline as a result of the emergence of African markets open to competition and the absence of Egyptian investments in natural resources and raw materials.

Fifth: future scenarios on the African identity of Egypt

Linear directional scenario: the continuation of the state of Egypt’s lack of awareness of African identity is assumed based on the presumption of the continuation of the variables that control the Egyptian perception of African identity, the most important of these variables, which means that Egyptians do not psychologically accept association with Negroes.

Optimistic reform scenario: this scenario focuses on changes and reforms in the Egyptians ‘ perception of African identity, in the sense of a new arrangement in the direction of the Egyptian perception of African identity in order to improve the course of Egyptian-African relations. In addition, there will be a rapprochement between the Arab and African identities and this situation will be stabilized, in the sense of a connecting line between Africa and the Arabs through the revival of Arab-African relations. In other words, there is no conflict and struggle between multiple circles of affiliation, as the Egyptian is pharaonic, Arab, African, Islamic and Middle Eastern, all of which are mutually exclusive circles of affiliation, and this depends on the ability of the political leadership in Egypt to manage this situation.

The pessimistic transformation scenario means that the African identity of Egypt will be exposed to many risks, threats and challenges, resulting in crises in Egyptian-African relations.

Sixth: proposed ways in the light of the Africa Development Plan

The ability to implement and achieve the success of Agenda 2063 requires a number of critical enablers of transformation in Africa and are prerequisites for success, these are the following:

1-continuous mobilization of the African people and achieving effective communication and awareness, sustainable and inclusive social dialogue on Agenda 2063.

2-mobilizing African resources to finance and accelerate the transformation process, achieve peace and security, develop infrastructure, democratic governance and strengthen continental institutions.

3-building a vision, responsible and accountable leadership and democratic development institutions through mechanisms capable of Planning, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation at all levels.

4-activating the planning capacities for African Development, rebuilding public services in the functional and professional fields and strengthening regional and continental institutions.

5-working to change attitudes and mentalities to promote African values through self-reliance, solidarity, hard and collective work, and building on African successes and best practices to form the African model of transformation and development.

The authors of the agenda believe that it differs from previous initiatives, and this is due to: the involvement of African citizens, civil society institutions, regional groupings and academic institutions, that is, following a bottom-up approach, there were intensive consultations with African citizens before the agenda was set; this enhances the goals and steps of the implementation of the initiative and its outputs, and promote the development of an African Agenda for socio-economic transformation, this work is not the work of bureaucrats, but an agenda driven by the voices of African peoples reflecting to the Africa they want.

There are a number of factors for the success of the effective implementation of this agenda, the most prominent of which are the following:

1-political commitment by the leaders of African countries, and effective strategic planning to ensure coordination between national, regional and continental plans in the short, medium and long term.

2-achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the countries of the continent.

3-developing the development capacity of countries, strengthening the administrative apparatus and existing institutions in the state, and including the participation of citizens within the framework of this agenda with a focus on the empowerment of women and youth.

4-implementing deep and effective reforms that include conflict resolution, reducing the accumulated debts of the countries of the continent, establishing strong infrastructure for development, removing the risk of famines that hit the continent, empowering young people in order to form a conscious future leadership of the African continent

The post “Afrocentric” Movement and Future scenarios on Egypt’s African Identity appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

In this context, the research paper aims to analyze the regional and international variables to which the Egyptian economy is exposed, clarify the economic effects of these variables on it, as well as shed light on the policies and procedures that the Egyptian economy can follow. Finally, the research paper presents several proposed solutions to enhance the performance of the economy and support its ability to withstand external shocks.

The most important solutions proposed by the paper to enhance the performance of the Egyptian economy were as follows:
-Increase the volume of national projects with a dollar yield and temporarily stop financing projects that need dollar spending.

-Expanding support to the Egyptian industrial sector by paying attention to the strategy of deepening local manufacturing.

-The current boycott campaigns are a golden opportunity for local products to increase their market space through increasing demand for local products.

-The government should focus on increasing the competitiveness and quality of exports and reducing the obstacles facing exporters as exports are a means of obtaining foreign exchange.

-Raising the interest rate will lead to a decline in investment, contraction of economic activity and increasing unemployment.

-Easing the restrictions on obtaining foreign exchange, which the private sector needs to obtain the raw materials necessary for production.

First: Analysis of the regional and international changes to which the Egyptian economy is exposed

The Egyptian economy was subjected to successive shocks (from the corona pandemic to the war in Ukraine). Where it influenced the gains of the economic reform plan, which began since 2016. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has led to significant repercussions on the Egyptian economy as it struggles to recover from the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, as high inflation rates, declining wheat imports and dwindling tourist flow come on top of the negative consequences of this war. Thus, the risk of food insecurity has increased due to the fact that Egypt’s food imports are linked to these two countries.

Egypt sought a new loan from the International Monetary Fund in December 2022 in order to fill part of the financing gap.

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved a 46-month agreement with Egypt under the Extended Fund Facility worth approximately US$3 billion. The program includes a comprehensive package of policies aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and achieving comprehensive growth led by the private sector. The policy package includes a permanent shift to a flexible exchange rate system, a monetary policy aimed at gradually reducing inflation, fiscal consolidation to ensure a decline in the path of public debt while strengthening social safety nets to protect vulnerable groups, and broad structural reforms.

The “Extended Fund Facility” is expected to encourage the availability of more funding for Egypt from its international and regional partners. Despite the promising goals of the IMF loan, however, the transition to a flexible exchange rate policy led to a significant devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which negatively affected the purchasing power of Egyptians and the high import bill. Therefore, the Egyptian government has turned to increasing support for the poorest groups.

It should be noted that China is the second largest economy in the world after the United States, according to gross domestic product, and the world’s number one trading power, as well as being one of the most important engines of global economic growth, and its currency has become one of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies, starting in October 2016. China’s national income is more than 10.4 trillion dollars, compared to 17.4 trillion dollars for the United States of America. China has a purchasing power equivalent to more than 15 trillion dollars, an estimated 3.7 trillion dollars in hard currency and gold reserves, a third of which is held in US Treasury bonds. China is seeking to reduce its dependence on the dollar, after the Chinese currency covers about 10% of World Trade. Since 2015, China’s arms exports to Africa have doubled, surpassing the US share and accounting for 17% of the African market.

China and the United States are locked in an escalating trade war that has seen rounds of tariffs imposed on each other’s imports, as well as increasingly strained relations due to disagreements over issues such as arms sales and military activity in the South China Sea.

Regarding the trade balance between China and the United States, it tends in favor of Beijing, whose trade surplus exceeded $375 billion in its exchanges with Washington in 2021, noting that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries exceeded $600 billion in 2020, and US exports to China in 2021 amounted to about $116.2 billion, while China’s exports to the United States amounted to about $492 billion in the same year. The United States imports aluminum, steel, electronics, clothing, and machinery from China, while China is the largest importer of soybeans from the United States.

Second: The economic impacts of current international and regional changes on Egypt

The instability and turmoil in the monetary policy of major countries have prompted an exodus of indirect investments in emerging markets, including Egypt, where about 20 billion dollars have flowed out since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis due to interest rate hikes in developed countries, which led to a sharp drop in the exchange rates of the local currency accompanied by record inflation levels as a result of the increase in the cost of imports, but the positive economic growth achieved over the past three years, on the one hand, as well as reforms in the balance of trade, especially the balance of energy, on the other, have pushed the Egyptian economy somewhat away from the severity of the external shock, which will performed Due to high energy and food prices, which undermined economic growth.

-Opportunities – Europe’s increasing dependence on Russian energy essentially pushes European governments to increase their investment portfolio with Egypt in the field of energy, especially natural gas in the short term and electricity in the medium and long term.

-The increasing dependence over the last two decades on factories in China and Southeast Asia has prompted major companies in the world, especially European and American companies, to reconsider the distribution of their factories and production lines around the world, which makes the reforms that Egypt implemented in infrastructure an opportunity to attract the largest possible amount of these investments, as well as About the availability and sustainability of energy on the one hand, and the low cost of labor on the other hand.

Challenges:

-Slowing economic growth:

The slowdown in global economic growth may lead to a recession that includes emerging economies, which may lead to lowering expectations for economic growth. According to the expectations of international institutions, the Egyptian economy is growing at a rate of 5.6% for the current year, amid expectations of a slowdown to reach 4.6% for next year.

-Increase in the general level of prices:

The rise in the general level of prices globally led to a further rise in prices at the local level, which in turn leads to an increase in the state’s obligations towards the most vulnerable groups, and increases the size of the general budget, which requires more borrowing, as the total budget deficit reached about 6.2%. As a percentage of GDP, the following figure indicates the relative distribution of public expenditures in the current budget 2022/2023.

High external public debt:

Egypt’s external public debt reached about $145.5 billion at the end of December from the level of $137.4 billion at the end of last September, an increase of about 5.8%, which may hinder the volume of spending allocated to investments, as interest payments amounted to about 45% of total revenues and about 33%. % of total public expenditures and the equivalent of 8% of the gross domestic product for the current fiscal year. The following figure shows the development of both interest payments on the one hand and the current and total deficit on the other hand.

Challenges of foreign trade:

The effects of the slowdown in international trade appear in two directions. The first is an increase in the import bill as a result of the rise in the price of oil, and about 20 billion pounds to move the exchange rate. The second trend is a decrease in the expected returns from Suez Canal revenues, as a result of the decline in the growth rate of global trade. It is expected that trade growth will decline. The global rate will reach 4.9% in 2023 compared to the current year’s estimated 6.7%, and the rise in interest rates by 100 basis points will contribute to increasing the general budget deficit by about 28 billion pounds.

Third: Policies and procedures that the Egyptian economy can follow

Egypt should resort to a set of policies and procedures to confront international and regional changes at the local level as follows:-

1-to make more efforts to protect the production and marketing activities necessary to meet local and global demand, and that supply chains continue to operate, which means protecting the existing infrastructure for processing crops, livestock and food, and other logistics systems.

2-finding new and more diverse food suppliers, relying on the existing stocks of food commodities and diversifying local production to ensure that people get healthy dietary patterns.

3-expanding the scope of social safety nets to protect the vulnerable.many will be pushed into the cycle of poverty and hunger by the ongoing conflict, which requires the provision of appropriate and targeted social protection programs.

4-avoiding ad hoc policy responses.reducing import tariffs or using export restrictions would help to address food security challenges.

5-enhancing transparency in markets and encouraging dialogue: ensuring greater transparency and information on the state of global markets will help the government and investors to make informed decisions in light of the fluctuations in the agricultural commodity markets.

Fourth:  proposed solutions to enhance the performance of the Egyptian economy and support its ability to face external shocks:

-Increase the volume of national projects with a dollar yield and temporarily stop financing projects that need dollar spending. Sources of dollar liquidity should be diversified more quickly and focus on sources that do not require large infrastructure.
– Expanding support to the Egyptian industrial sector by paying attention to the strategy of deepening local manufacturing. It is necessary to provide alternatives to imports in the Egyptian market to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.

-Although the devaluation of the currency makes imports more expensive, it makes exports cheaper and increases global demand for them. But the government should take steps to increase the competitiveness and quality of exports, and reduce the obstacles facing exporters as exports are a means of obtaining foreign exchange. There should be more subsidies to support small and medium-sized enterprises in order to help them produce for export.

– -Raising the interest rate by the central bank is not the only solution to curb inflation, especially since inflation is not caused by an increase in demand, but by rising costs and shocks to global supply chains. On the contrary, raising the interest rate will lead to a decline in investment, contraction of economic activity and increasing unemployment.

– -Easing the restrictions on obtaining foreign exchange, which the private sector needs to obtain the raw materials necessary for production. In addition, the private sector is now facing a high cost of financing due to the tightening of monetary policy.

-Reducing the government’s crowding out of the private sector in obtaining local credit, as the bulk of local credit is allocated to the government and the public business sector and represents about 60% of local credit

The post The Egyptian Economy in light of International and Regional Changes: Scenarios and Solutions appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

Since 2014 until now, the pension system in Egypt has witnessed many developments that have made it capable of providing social protection, as it has increased successively and exceptionally in light of successive economic crises and rising costs of living, within the framework of the state’s keenness to achieve social protection for the most needy groups and improve their economic conditions. and social life to enable them to live a decent life.

In this context, the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Derayah ” presents this research paper, which relied on the inductive approach in addressing the reality of the pension system over the past 9 years, where it highlighted pension systems, fundamental legislative reforms and executive decisions that contributed to improving the conditions of pensioners, and giving them a set of gains and benefits that had a tangible positive impact on their lives, through the following four axes:

The first axis: pension systems in Egypt

The second axis: legislative reforms and executive decisions to improve the pension system

The third axis: the gains of pensioners from 2014 to 2023

The fourth axis: the impact of those gains on pensioners

The research paper has reached a set of results, the most important of which are:

-The state has succeeded in providing the necessary financial liquidity to serve pensioners since the signing of the financial entanglement agreement between the National Authority for social insurance and the state treasury, according to which about 45 trillion pounds will be paid to the authority over 50 years from 2019
.
-The government’s contributions to pension funds increased from 29.2 billion pounds in 2013-2014, to 202 billion pounds in the budget of the current year 2023-2024, an increase of about 592%.
-The value of pensions increased 10 times during the period from 2014 to 2023, and the value of pensions disbursed increased from 86.5 billion pounds in 2013/2014 to 340 billion pounds in 2022/2023, an increase of 293%.
-The minimum and maximum value of the severance pension has witnessed a significant increase, with the minimum in 2023 reaching about 1.275 pounds compared to 450 pounds in 2015, and the maximum 10.355 compared to 2.360 pounds in 2015.

-The “Social Security ” pension allocations increased to reach 31 billion pounds in the 2023/2024 budget, compared to 22 billion pounds in the 2022/2023 budget, and 19 billion pounds in the 2021/2022 budget.
-The increase of the Takaful and Karama pension during 2023 reached 40%, as the president of the Republic decided to increase it by 25% in March, and 15% in September, so that the “Takaful” pension would rise after the September 2023 increase to reach 630 pounds instead of 450 pounds, and the “Karama” pension for the elderly and people with disabilities reached 490 pounds instead of 350 pounds.

The first axis: pension systems:

The pension map was characterized by complexity and diversity, as its types varied as follows:

1: insurance pension

-It is a pension system based on contributions from subscribers for more than half a century, specifically since the 1960s. It has developed greatly over the past decades and played an important role in protecting large sectors of Egyptians, especially those who work in the formal sector, as its umbrella extended to a large number of citizens. Whether directly (the insured and the pensioner) or indirectly (family members).

-Workers are entitled to a social insurance pension after they pay insurance contributions for a specific period determined by the regulating law. These contributions are collected in insurance and pension funds, which subsequently provide the amounts of due pensions. The resources of these funds are the insurance contributions, the interest due thereon, and any profits resulting from investing the money in those funds. .

-The government allocates annual support to these funds from the state’s general budget to cover any deficit in collected contributions, and to finance the increases due to pensions, which are issued by law from the House of Representatives, or by a decision from the President of the Republic if the House of Representatives is not in session.

2: Social pension

-It is a security pension that is conditional on the social status of the citizen, and is not based on financial contributions, meaning that it is not financed through wage deductions. It is granted to poor families in accordance with the controls stipulated by the law. It may not be combined with any other type of pension, and its value is determined based on the number of pensions. Members of the beneficiary family.

The services of the social security system in Egypt include:

– Monthly security assistance, which is disbursed to poor families according to the study of the economic and social situation of the family, and the value of these assistance varies according to the number of family members.
– Exceptional assistance, which is a one-time assistance during the year for families benefiting from the Social Security Law, and is allocated for educational expenses, and its value varies from one stage of study to another, including exceptional assistance also funeral expenses, status expenses and urgent emergencies.
– A child’s pension, which is a pension issued to a child up to the age of 18 and in specific cases, namely orphaned children or children of unknown parentage, children of a breadwinner or divorced mother if she marries or dies, children of legally detained, imprisoned or imprisoned for at least a month.
– The monthly scholarship that is provided to the children of the beneficiaries of the guarantee assistance.
– Security projects to help engage in the labor market.
– Compensation, which is very diverse, and deals with disasters that affect citizens, whether individual or collective, such as desertification and others.

3: irregular employment pension

-The social insurance and Pensions Law 148 of 2019 included irregular employment of people without regular salaries in social insurance in exchange for paying 9% of the minimum wage, and those who wish to receive a pension with a minimum of 900 pounds, must register himself at the competent insurance office, and pay 72 pounds per month.

-A worker belonging to the category of irregular employment is entitled to a pension after reaching old age, with a contribution period for old-age, disability and death insurance of at least 180 months (15 years), including a contribution period of at least 120 months (10 years).

-According to the new social insurance law, the total pension for irregular employment may exceed 80% of the maximum contribution wage on the due date, and not less than 65% of it, in accordance with the new insurance and Pensions Law.

-According to the law, the categories of the labor force of irregular employment, include the following:

-Memorizers of the Holy Quran and reciters

-Domestic servants and the like

-Deportation workers

-Temporary workers in agriculture both in fields and orchards

-Workers in livestock or small animal and poultry farming projects

-Owners of built-up real estate whose share of the annual income is less than the category of the minimum subscription wage

-Non-possessor owners of agricultural land whose ownership is less than an acre

-Hymnists and other servants of the church

-Small self-employed people such as street vendors, car clubs, newspaper distributors, traveling shoe wipers, and other similar categories.

-Holders of agricultural land whose holding area is less than an acre, whether landlords or tenants by rent.

4: Private sector pension

Law No. 148 of 2019 and its executive regulations obligated the employer to pay the contributions due for his workers, and to submit an insured subscription application within two weeks of any worker joining his job. The law stipulates that the worker reaches retirement at the age of sixty. It also specifies cases in which the retirement age may extend beyond the age of 60 years, and stipulates that the worker is entitled to the period of his work after the age of sixty.

5: Exceptional pension

The exceptional pensions issued by Law No. 71 of 1964 mean either granting an exceptional pension to someone who has not previously received a pension, or improving the pension of someone who has previously received a pension.

The categories benefiting from the Exceptional Pensions Law are:

1 – Civilian workers whose service in the state’s administrative apparatus, public bodies, public institutions, or economic units affiliated to them has ended, or for those whose families have died.

2- Those who performed great services for the country or the families of those who died.

3 – Families of those who died in an accident considered a public disaster.

6: Solidarity and dignity pension

The “Takaful” program is designed as a conditional cash transfer program that provides income to support poor families with children under 18 years of age. The assistance includes providing a monthly salary and providing health care for pregnant mothers and pre-school children.

As for the “Karama” program, it was designed as an unconditional cash transfer program for the elderly poor (65 years and over), and the disabled with a disability rate starting from 50% that prevents them from working and earning, and who do not have a fixed income.

The second axis:

legislative reforms and executive decisions to improve the pension system
The 2014 Constitution was filled with a number of articles that preserved the rights of pensioners. Article 17 was clear in its dealings with social insurance, social security, and providing a pension for irregular workers, as it stipulated: “The state shall guarantee the provision of social insurance services.” Every citizen who does not enjoy the social insurance system has the right to social security, which guarantees him a decent life, if he is unable to support himself and his family, and in cases of inability to work, old age, and unemployment. The state works to provide an appropriate livelihood for small farmers, agricultural workers, fishermen, and irregular workers, in accordance with the law.

Laws and executive decisions:

-Decree of the president of the Republic by Law No. 118 of 2014 on exempting establishments and insured persons from the additional amounts due to them to the National Social Insurance Authority
.
-The decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 197 of 2014 to increase the planned rate of pensions in 2007 by 5% to 15% as of 1/7/2007 for pensions accrued before this date.

The decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 120 of 2014 to amend the social insurance law to cancel the deprivation of early pensioners of the increase prescribed by Article 165 to improve low pensions, the amendment was retroactive from the date of 1/7/2013 and the disbursement of financial differences as of this date.

-Decision of the president of the Republic No. 190 of 2014 to increase pensions by 10% of the total pension due to the pensioner on 30/6/2014.
-Decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 29 of 2015 to increase pensions starting from 1/7/2015 by 10%.

-Law No. 60 of 2016 increasing pensions by 10% as of July 2016 pensions accrued before this date.

-Decision of the Ministry of social solidarity No. 374 of 2017 on the rules for disbursing the pension increase established by Law No. 80 of 2017, provided that the increase should be by 15% of the total pension payable to the pensioner on 30/6/2017, and the minimum increase should be 150 pounds and the maximum 550 pounds.

– Presidential Decision No. 260 of 2021 to increase pensions, effective 7/1/2021, by 13%.

– Presidential Decision No. 139 of 2022 to increase pensions by 13%, effective April 1, 2022.

– Presidential Decision No. 187 of 2023 to increase pensions, effective April 1, 2023, by 15%.

-The President of the Republic’s decision to increase the exceptional cost of living allowance, to become “600” pounds, instead of “300” pounds, for all employees of the state’s administrative apparatus, economic bodies, business sector companies and the public sector.

-Implementing the rule of financial inclusion for pensioners and beneficiaries, and mechanizing the collection of insurance benefits by linking with the electronic collection and payment center at the Ministry of Finance, which saves time, effort, and speed of disbursement.

The third axis: the earnings of pensioners and their beneficiaries

We can review the most important gains of pensioners based on contributors’ contributions from 2014 until 2023, as follows:

The value of pensions increased 10 times during the period from 2014 to 2023, and the following table shows the percentage increases approved by the government in accordance with the announced annual increases:

The value of annual increases during the period from 2014 to 2023

We refer here to raising the minimum insurance subscription wage in January 2023 to be 1,700 pounds, compared to 1,400 in 2022, and 1,200 in 2021, and raising the maximum insurance subscription wage to be 10,900 pounds, compared to 9,400 in 2022, and 8,100 pounds in 2021.

The steady increase in the number of civilian pensioners in the period from (2014-2023) and its annual value in billions

As of October 1, 2023, the number of pensioners and their beneficiaries amounted to 11,117,382, and the number of Pension Disbursement outlets amounted to 9,556 outlets.

The minimum and maximum value of the severance pension has witnessed a significant increase, as the increases have evolved from 2014 to 2023 as follows:
– The minimum pension amounted to 450 pounds in 2014, while the maximum was 2082 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 450 pounds in 2015, and the maximum 2360 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 500 pounds in 2016, and the maximum 2680 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 500 pounds in 2017, and the maximum 3040 pounds.

– The minimum pension amounted to 750 pounds in 2018, and the maximum to 3448 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 900 pounds in 2019, and the maximum 4568 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 910 pounds in 2020, and the maximum 5600 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 900 pounds in 2021, and the maximum 6480 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 910 pounds in 2022, and the maximum 7520 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 1275 pounds in 2023, and the maximum 10355 pounds.

Social Security pension allocations increased to 31 billion pounds in the 2023/2024 budget, compared to 22 billion pounds in the 2022/2023 budget, and 19 billion pounds in the 2021/2022 budget.

The increase in the Takaful and Karama pension during the year 2023 amounted to about 40%, as the President of the Republic decided to increase it by 25% in March, and 15% in September, so that the “Takaful” pension increased after the September 2023 increase to reach 630 pounds instead of 450 pounds, and the “Karama” pension amounted to “For the elderly and people with disabilities, 490 pounds instead of 350 pounds.

Fourth axis: The impact of these gains on pensioners:

We can review the impact of the gains obtained by pensioners and their beneficiaries, as follows:

-The social protection plan approved by the Egyptian state since 2014 has contributed to the decline in poverty rates in Egypt to 29.7% in 2019/2020 compared to 32.5% in 2017/2018, with a decrease of 2.8%, which is an indicator of the success of the state’s efforts to achieve social justice in conjunction with the economic reforms implemented and focused on the social dimension of development.

-Assistance in providing citizens with a more balanced life at the psychological and social level, strengthening their sense of belonging, acceptance and acceptance from society and the surrounding environment, and keenness to integrate into society.

-An independent impact assessment conducted by the International Institute for Food Policy Research showed that the “Takaful and Karama” program had an impressive impact on women’s empowerment and economic inclusion, through a set of indicators, the most important of which were:

-Increase the consumption of families benefiting from Takaful from 7.3% to 8.4%, compared to families that do not participate in the program.

-Reducing by 12 percentage points the probability of families in the Takaful program slipping below the poverty line.

-A significant increase (from 8.3% to 8.9%) in the value of monthly food consumption for Takaful beneficiaries.

-The “Takaful” program has increased the rate of standard deviation of weight relative to height, which is a measure of the short-term nutritional status of children under the age of two, that is, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points in the likelihood that a child under the age of five has been treated for malnutrition, and has also led to a decrease in stunting and wasting rates, according to estimates of the demographic and Health Survey issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2019.

-The program has also led to an increase in spending on the educational process of their children and the provision of school supplies and means of transportation to school, as the impact assessment indicators showed that 100% of the children of “Takaful” families are enrolled in schools, including 4.5 million children, including 50% at the primary stage, 20% at the preparatory stage, 9% at the secondary stage, in addition to 22% children under the age of Education.

-The “Takaful and Dignity” program has shown positive results related to the empowerment of women and their sense of dignity, with a decrease in financial pressures on the family, as we find, according to some statements by the minister of social solidarity, that 75% of Takaful and dignity card holders are women

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The freedom of children from violence is a fundamental human right recognized in the convention on the rights of the child and its Optional Protocols, and their protection, as the international community has officially pledged to preserve it and included it in the core of the Global Sustainable Development Agenda 2030.The new plan included for the first time a specific target (target 16.2) to end all forms of violence against children, and the issue of ending child abuse, neglect and exploitation was generalized to several other violence-related targets such as child marriage, female genital mutilation (target 5.3) and the elimination of child labour, including the recruitment and use of children (Target 8.7).

In fact, the magnitude and impact of the phenomenon of violence against children remain significant and are of great concern, especially since violence is associated with high costs for households, communities and national economies due to the serious and long-term effects on children’s development, health and education.violence can destroy development gains that took years to achieve in a matter of hours.

The Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Draya” issues this research paper, which sheds light on facts about the phenomenon of violence against children, and the most prominent indicators at the global and local levels, in addition to revealing its serious repercussions on societies, and the economic cost resulting from it. The paper also monitors the efforts made by the Egyptian state to address this phenomenon, and presents some proposals through which the rates of spread of violence against children can be reduced globally and locally.

The research paper addresses the phenomenon of violence against children through several axes, including:

First: Facts about the phenomenon of violence against children (concept – types – causes)

Second: Indicators of violence against children globally.

Third: The repercussions of the phenomenon of violence against children.

Fourth: The economic costs resulting from violence against children.

Fifth: Indicators of violence against children in Egypt.

Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to eliminate violence against children.

Seventh: Proposals to reduce the phenomenon of violence against children.

The paper reached a number of results, the most prominent of which are as follows:

– Half of the world’s children, almost a billion children aged 2-17 years, suffer from some form of violence annually.

– Approximately 3 out of 4 children, or the equivalent of 300 million children worldwide aged 2-4 years, suffer from physical punishment and/or psychological violence on a regular basis at the hands of parents and caregivers.

-At least 55 million children in Europe suffer from some form of physical, sexual, emotional and psychological violence annually.

– High-income countries constitute the highest percentage of countries with fully funded National Action Plans to address violence against children, while low-income countries are the least funded in national action plans to confront this phenomenon.

Violence against children costs the global economy between 1.49 trillion and 6.9 trillion dollars a year.
– The health sector incurs the largest economic cost, as about 581 billion dollars are spent annually on the treatment of victims of violence against children.

– Female children in Egypt are exposed to violence more than males, and the percentage of female exposure to violence in the countryside rises to 14% compared to 8% among males.

– The percentage of circumcision among girls at the age stage ( 0-17 years) is increasing in rural areas and will reach 14% in 2021, compared to 8% in urban areas.

– Methods of severe corporal punishment decreased from 43.2% in 2014 to 26.2% in 2021, physical punishment from 78% to 56.6%, and psychological punishment from 91% to 78.3% in the same period.

First: Facts about violence against children

A-The concept of violence against children:

The World Health Organization defines violence against children as “all forms of violence against persons under 18 years of age, whether committed by parents, other caregivers, peers, or romantic partners,” and thus the definition of violence emphasizes:

1- Non justification: “No violence against children can be justified, as all types of violence against children can be prevented.”

2- Non-exception: considering “all forms of violence against children to be unacceptable, whatever they may be” and not undermining the child’s absolute right to dignity, humanity, and physical and psychological integrity in any way.

B- Forms of violence against children:

1- Physical violence: It is any punishment in which physical force is used and causes the infliction of a certain degree of pain and harm, no matter how low their severity.

2- Sexual violence: It includes coercing a child to engage in any illegal or psychologically harmful sexual activity, sexually exploiting children for commercial purposes, and exploiting children by making audio-visual recordings of cases of sexual assault against them.

3- Psychological violence: psychological abuse or mental abuse, or verbal abuse and emotional abuse, and it includes all forms of interaction with the child that always involve harm, such as making him feel that he is worthless, unloved or unwanted.

4- Electronic violence:

-Sexual abuse of children to produce visual and audio recordings facilitated by the Internet and other information and communications technologies.

– Children are exposed to offensive, violent, hateful, biased, racist, pornographic or misleading content.

– In the context of their communication with others through information and communications technology, children are exposed to bullying, harassment, stalking, coercion, deception, persuasion into a personal meeting outside the Internet, or luring them.

C- Causes of violence against children:

Who has confirmed that violence against children is a multifaceted problem due to multiple causes at the levels of the individual, close relationships, local groups and society, important risk factors are the following:

1-individual level :

– Biological and personal aspects such as gender and age.

– Low levels of Education.

– Low income.

– Having a disability or mental health problems.

– Taking alcohol and drugs in a way that is harmful to health.

– An extended history of exposure to violence.

2-the level of close relationships :

– Lack of emotional bonds between children and parents or caregivers.

– Poor pedagogical practices.

– Family dysfunction and separation.

– Knowledge of violence between parents or caregivers.

– Early or forced marriage.

3-the level of society

– Poverty and high population density.

– Low social cohesion and the existence of social and gender values create a climate in which violence becomes commonplace.

– Absence or insufficiency of social protection.

– Post-conflict situations or natural disasters.

– Contexts characterized by weak governance and poor law enforcement.

Second: Indicators of violence against children globally

Indicators of violence against children at the global level reflect a shocking reality, as countless children of all ages are still exposed to violence in its various forms. The most prominent indicators are as follows, based on international estimates issued by WHO, UNICEF, and UNESCO:

1– one out of two children or a total of one billion children – equivalent to half of the world’s children-aged 2-17 years suffer from some form of violence annually.

2.approximately 3 out of 4 children or the equivalent of 300 million children worldwide among those aged two to 4 years suffer from physical punishment and/or psychological violence on a regular basis at the hands of parents and caregivers.

3-emotional violence affects one out of three children, and one out of four children under the age of five lives with a mother who is a victim of partner violence.

4 – one out of every 3 students between the ages of 13 and 15 has been involved in physical altercations (45% male-25% female).

5-about 120 million girls under the age of Twenty have suffered from some form of forced sexual relations.

6-at least 55 million children in Europe suffer from some form of physical, sexual, emotional and psychological violence annually.

7 – of the 204 million children under the age of 18 in Europe, 9.6% are exposed to sexual exploitation, 22.9% to physical violence and 29.1% to emotional damage. In addition, 700 children are killed every year, according to the UN regional office in Europe.

Although the majority of countries (83%) have national data on violence against children, only about 21% of countries have used this data to set national baselines and goals for preventing and responding to violence against children.

Percentages of countries that have fully funded national action plans by type of violence and country income level for 2018

Source: Global Report on Prevention of Violence against Children 2020

Third: The repercussions of violence against children

The World Health Organization (who) has confirmed that violence against children has serious repercussions and effects that significantly affect the enjoyment of Health and well-being by children, families, communities and countries throughout their lives, noting the following:

– 40,150 deaths occur annually among children aged zero to 17 years (28,160 males – 11,990 females).

– Children aged 11-15 who are bullied at school are 13% less likely to graduate from school.

– Adults who have experienced 4 or more negative experiences in childhood (including physical, sexual and emotional abuse) are 7 times more likely as a victim or perpetrator of violence, and 30 times more likely to make a suicide attempt 30 times.

Men who were physically and sexually abused in childhood are 14 times more likely to commit physical and sexual violence in intimate relationships, and women are 16 times more likely to suffer from physical and sexual violence.

These implications can be summarized as follows:

1-death: violence against children may lead to death or manslaughter, especially in forms of violence involving the use of white weapons and firearms. It ranks among the top three causes of death in adolescents, with boys making up more than 80% of victims and perpetrators.

2- Poor mental and nervous development: Violence against children can impair mental development and harm other parts of the nervous system, as well as the endocrine glands, circulatory system, musculoskeletal tissue, reproductive, respiratory and immune systems.

3- Poor cognitive development and a negative impact on the level of academic achievement and professional achievement.

4.Sexual Violence Against Children can lead to unintended pregnancies, induced abortions, gynecological problems, sexually transmitted infections, including HIV infection.

5- Dropping out of education: Violence against children affects opportunities and future generations. Children exposed to violence and other hostilities are more likely to drop out of school, face difficulties in finding and maintaining job opportunities, and are exposed to increased risks of becoming victims of abuse and/or committing violence. Personal and later self-directed, violence against children can affect the next generation.

Fourth: The economic costs resulting from violence against children

Violence against children has economic costs in the short, medium and long term, which are incurred by individuals, groups and societies. In general, the economic costs resulting from violence can be divided into two types:

Direct costs include the following:

– Costs for health-care systems dealing with the treatment of the short-and long-term physical effects of injuries caused by violence against children.

– Costs also incurred by health care systems as a result of the treatment of psychological and behavioral problems among adults caused by exposure to violence in childhood.

– Costs incurred by social welfare systems related to the monitoring, prevention, protection and response to violence against children.

Direct costs include the following:

-Costs on health care systems that treat the short- and long-term physical effects of injuries resulting from violence against children.

-Costs also incurred by health care systems as a result of treating psychological and behavioral problems among adults resulting from their exposure to violence in childhood.

-Costs incurred by social welfare systems related to monitoring, preventing, protecting and responding to violence against children.

– Indirect costs, including losses in productivity, resulting from the way violence hinders the development of children.adults who are exposed to violence in childhood have little access to education, employment, wages and property, which causes victims to receive poor wages throughout their lives and has a negative impact on society as a whole.

Violence against children affects their academic performance once they enroll in education, resulting in a decline in educational achievement, and consequently negatively affects employment and the consequent loss of earnings in adulthood. Exposure to violence in childhood can also lead to psychological and behavioral problems at a later stage, which also hinder the child’s education.

The World Health Organization has indicated that violence against children costs the world economy between 1.49 trillion and 6.9 trillion dollars annually, and that many of the economic costs are incurred by the health sector, as about 581 billion dollars are spent annually on treating victims of violence against children. Some studies have indicated that the economic costs resulting from violence against children may reach the equivalent of 10% of the global gross domestic product.

Fifth: indicators of violence against children in Egypt

The most important indicators of violence against children according to the health survey conducted by the central agency for public mobilization and statistics 2021 and published its results in December 2022 were as follows :

– Female children are exposed to violence more than males, and the percentage of female exposure to violence in the countryside rises to 14% compared to 8% among males.

-About 29% of female children who have not completed primary school are exposed to violence, compared to 13% of males at the same age.

– The rate of circumcision among girls aged 0-17 years was about 12% in 2021, compared to 18% in 2014.

– The percentage of circumcision among girls at the age stage ( 0-17 years) is increasing in rural areas and will reach 14% in 2021, compared to 8% in urban areas, as shown in the following figure:

Yelling or talking loudly with a child is the most violent method used with children by 75%.

Hitting a child on his hand or arm was one of the most used methods of physical violence, with 4 out of 10 women mentioning hitting a child on his hands, arm or leg as a method of controlling behavior.

Hitting or slapping a child on the face, head or ears was the most common method of physical violence, with a percentage of 25%.

In general, the results of the Egyptian Family Health Survey indicate a decrease in the use of violent parenting methods in the 2021 health survey compared to what was observed in the 2014 Population Health Survey, with an increase in the use of non-violent behavior control methods .

Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics

Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to eliminate violence against children

Egypt has made great efforts to adopt laws and political measures that would ensure better protection of children from violence in all its forms, which contributed to a significant decrease in the rates of violence against children..The most prominent efforts are as follows:

1-Article 80 of the Constitution of 2014 :the Constitution of 2014 guaranteed all aspects of protection and care for the Egyptian child, where it is clearly stated in Article 80 that ” everyone who has not reached the age of eighteen is considered a child, and every child has the right to a name and identification papers, free compulsory vaccination, health and family or alternative care, basic nutrition, safe shelter, religious education, emotional and cognitive development. The state guarantees the rights of children with disabilities, their rehabilitation and integration into society. The state is obliged to take care of the child and protect him from all forms of violence, abuse, maltreatment, sexual and commercial exploitation.

2-amending the Penal Code of 2014, which criminalizes sexual harassment for the first time.

3-Egypt has ratified a number of international human rights treaties that guarantee the rights of the child, such as the convention on the rights of the child and the African Charter on the rights and welfare of the child.

4-the government has committed to implementing the 2030 Sustainable Development Plan, which includes ambitious goals to end violence as part of a broader vision “the world invests in its children, a world where every child grows up safe from violence and exploitation”.

5-formation of multiple child protection committees at the governorate and district levels (child protection committees), which are subordinate to the Ministry of local development.

6-The Ministry of Social Solidarity provides supportive services to families through the home visits program for rural women pioneers, its family registration offices, and early childhood development centers, which contribute to reducing rates of violence against children.

7-The Ministry of Social Solidarity and the National Council for Motherhood and Childhood launched a number of initiatives aimed at stopping violence against children, which are “No to Violence Campaign, Stop the Violence Campaign, Anti-Bullying Campaign, Protect Her from Circumcision Campaign, Our Children Campaign, and the “With Calmness, Not Cruelty” Campaign.

8- Establishing the National Committee to Eliminate Female Genital Mutilation in 2019. In 2021, the Senate approved a draft law amending the provisions of the Penal Code to tighten the punishment for female circumcision, in addition to launching the National Council for Women a door-knocking campaign and the “Protect Her from Circumcision” campaign.

– The anti-addiction and Treatment Fund of the Ministry of Social Solidarity, which targets adolescents in the age group of 12: 18 years, has implemented many awareness-raising activities on the harms of drug use in 4,500 schools, 276 colleges and higher institutes in 55 public, private and private universities and higher institutes nationwide, as well as 893 youth centers in 2022.

Seventh: proposals to reduce violence against children

Although the protection of children from violence is increasingly recognized in international, regional and national programs, the progress made is too slow, uneven and fragmented to allow a real breakthrough in the field of child protection, there is still much that can be done decisively to allow every girl and boy to enjoy their childhood in a violence-free environment.

A-at the global level:

International organizations have made a great effort to study the phenomenon of violence against children at the International and regional levels and have made a large number of recommendations in this regard, the most prominent of which are the following :

– All governments should develop and promote a child-centred, integrated, multidisciplinary and time-bound national strategy to prevent and respond to violence against children.

– An explicit legal prohibition of all forms of violence against children should be urgently established and supported by detailed measures for implementation and effective enforcement.

– Legal initiatives and measures should be accompanied by further efforts to overcome the social acceptance of violence against children.

-Data and information on the prevalence of violence against children should be made available.

– Strengthen national systems for the protection of children, especially those at risk of exploitation and violence, in order to better include them, especially unaccompanied children.

– Ensure that all refugee and migrant children have access to education and are provided with access to health and other basic services.

B-at the local level

The state has made many efforts to eliminate the phenomenon of violence against children, both on the scale of legislation ensuring the protection of children, and on the institutional scale, as the paper indicated earlier. But more efforts can be made to eliminate this phenomenon by taking the following measures:

1-strengthen and develop follow-up frameworks and mechanisms to ensure the enforcement of child protection laws, strengthen accountability, and enable security and judicial prosecution of perpetrators of violence against children.

2-activating the role of the child protection committees of the National Council for Childhood and motherhood in various governorates of the Republic and supporting them with more social workers and psychologists

3-preparing a long-term national media campaign aimed at introducing educational means that can be used with children as an alternative to violence while working to confront all inherited norms and concepts that legitimize the use of violence against children as the first way to raise and discipline children.

4-include school curricula with programs that confront and combat violence against children as well as how to deal with bullying and online violence.

5-developing preventive and awareness programs and ensuring that their coverage is balanced in different governorates and for different segments of the population.

6-providing specialized support teams and services to deal with children who have been subjected to violence and abuse, including doctors, social and psychological specialists, while providing safe mechanisms to file a complaint and report any attempts of violence and abuse that children may be exposed to .

7-allocate a unit or department within the Ministry of education and the Ministry of Health that is concerned with confronting violence against children and researching its causes and means of treatment, and this unit can also participate the concerned authorities in developing the necessary plans to confront violence against children.

8-increasing the number of NGOs working in the field of child welfare and encouraging them by providing more human, financial and material support to them.

9-involve religious institutions in managing the change of misconceptions regarding the acceptance and justification of violence against children.

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The first of the Sustainable Development Goals States “the eradication of poverty in all its forms everywhere”, the second emphasizes the need to” eradicate hunger, provide food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture“, and the third goal States”ensuring the enjoyment of healthy lifestyles and well-being for all at all ages

Efforts aimed at reducing malnutrition diseases – most notably stunting – are still falling short of achieving the target, and it seems that the world is not on the right track, especially since malnutrition diseases are worsening and threatening the lives of millions. About 50% of deaths in children under the age of five are related to undernutrition, and most These deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, according to World Health Organization data.

In view of the high economic and social costs resulting from stunting that undermine development plans and the future of countries, the Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Derayah” issues this research paper that addresses the concept of stunting and its indicators at the local, Arab and global levels, as well as the efforts of the Egyptian state to confront this disease. And a number of recommendations that would reduce the number of children with stunting in Egypt, through several axes, as follows:

First: the concept of stunting

Second: Indicators of stunting at Arab, regional and international levels

Third: The economic cost of child stunting

Fourth: Indicators of stunting in Egypt

Fifth: Causes of stunting in Egypt

Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to confront stunting

Seventh: Recommendations to confront stunting

First: the concept of stunting

Stunting is a form of undernutrition that is the most common cause of malnutrition. Undernutrition results from lack of food intake and insufficient food intake to meet the body’s needs, and leads to vulnerability to disease and death, especially for children.

The World Health Organization indicates that stunting means short height for age, results from chronic or recurrent undernutrition, and is usually associated with poor socioeconomic conditions, poor maternal health and nutrition, frequent morbidity, and/or inadequate nutrition and care for infants and young children. In the early stages of life

Stunting is divided into two types:

1- Proportionate dwarfism: The body is disproportionately small, and body parts are smaller than normal but proportional.

2- Disproportionate dwarfism: The body size is disproportionate, making some parts of the body larger or smaller than normal.

It should be noted that the effects of this disease last a lifetime, as most stunted children usually develop anemia and low development of cognitive, social and emotional skills , and in later stages of their lives, they will be more susceptible to non-communicable diseases.

Second: Indicators of stunting at Arab, regional and global levels

The World Health Organization has confirmed that all countries of the world are affected by malnutrition in general and stunting in particular, while World Bank reports stated that the number of people – especially children – suffering from stunting confirms that it still constitutes the most serious challenges that stand as an obstacle to achieving development plans in various countries. Countries of the world.

Stunting at the Arab and regional levels

The World Bank warned in its report on the Middle East and North Africa region in April 2023 that inflation resulting from global conflicts and crises, most notably the Russian-Ukrainian war, caused food insecurity to rise to 17.6%, and increased the risk of expanding the cycle of stunting among children.

The report indicated that the increase in food prices between March and June of 2022 caused between 200,000 and 285,000 newborns to suffer from stunting in the Middle East and North Africa region, which means an increase in those risks between 17% and 24%.

The World Bank report also stated that Libya, Syria, and Yemen suffer from the highest rates of stunting, and that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, represented by Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, recorded the lowest rates of stunting in the region.

In another report issued by the United Nations, the incidence of stunting in Syria has increased significantly due to malnutrition, as one in three children under the age of five in northwestern Syria suffer from stunting, in light of the suffering of more than 4.6 million children throughout the world. Syria is food insecure.
According to the data of the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the prevalence of stunting among children under the age of five in the Arab region reached 20.5% in 2020, compared to 28.7% in 2000.

Figure No. (1) shows the percentage prevalence of stunting among children under the age of five, according to the subclassification of Arab countries in terms of income:

Source: Joint estimates by UNICEF, WHO and the World Bank

Figure No. (2) shows the prevalence of stunting among children under five in Arab countries in 2020

Source: UNICEF, WHO and World Bank joint estimates

Although there has been a marked improvement in the past two decades in the number of stunted children, the current prevalence of stunting in the region remains high based on the World Health Organization’s classification of the severity of malnutrition as a public health problem, but the estimated current prevalence for the Arab region remains lower than the global average of 22.3%.

Global stunting

The joint estimates of child malnutrition (JME) issued by UNICEF, the World Health Organization and the World Bank in 2023 reveal insufficient progress to reach the Sustainable Development Goals, as only a third of countries are on track to halve the number of children affected by stunting by 2030, with progress so far impossible to assess for about a quarter of countries

These recent estimates reveal rates of stunting, as follows:

About 148 million children under the age of five worldwide are stunted in 2022, a rate of 22.3%.
There are about 52% of stunted children under the age of five in Asia, and 43% in Africa, as Figure 3 shows:

Source: UNICEF, WHO and World Bank

-The prevalence of stunting for children at the age of five decreased from about 33% in 2000, to 22.3% in 2022, that is, from 204.2 million children in 2000, to 148 million children in 2022.

-The number of stunted children has decreased over the past decade (2012-2022) in:

-Asia, where the numbers decreased from 106.8 million children to 76.6 million children.

-Latin America and the Caribbean, where numbers decreased from 6.8 million children to 5.7 million children.

-Europe, where the numbers decreased from 2.1 million children to 1.4 million children.

The number of stunted children in Africa increased from 61.3 million in 2012 to 63.1 million in 2022, as Figure No. (4) shows:

It is expected that the percentage of stunted children under five years old will reach 15.4% in 2025 and 12.8% in 2030.

It is clear from the numbers and percentages that the world is not on the right track in confronting stunting. Despite the decline in stunting rates in many countries, this decrease will not achieve the target in 2025 regarding reducing the incidence of stunting by about 40%, and the target in 2030 regarding reducing the incidence rate by about 50%.

Third: The economic cost of child stunting

Countries are suffering huge losses as a result of large numbers of children suffering from stunting, as per capita income decreases due to the failure to address this disease in the early years of a child’s life.

A report published on the World Bank website regarding the relationship between stunting rates and income losses for a worker who was stunted in childhood stated that the average per capita GDP in the country was 7% lower compared to it if none of the country’s current workers were affected by stunting in the past. Childhood, and in Africa and South Asia, average losses in per capita GDP rise to between 9-10%.

According to a study entitled “The Economic Costs of Child Stunting Beared by the Private Sector in Low- and Middle-Income Countries,” child stunting costs the private sector at least $135 billion in sales annually, and companies from Latin America, the Caribbean, and the East Asia and Pacific region incur greater losses. Losses.

The study also indicated that workers with stunting lose about 20% of their annual income, and that the sectors most affected by stunting are the manufacturing industries, clothing and food sectors.

Fourth: Indicators of stunting in Egypt

Stunting is one of the most important challenges facing the Egyptian state, and although it has achieved remarkable progress in reducing the number of people with stunting, the challenge is still great in terms of achieving the target according to Egypt’s Vision 2030 with regard to malnutrition in general and stunting in particular.

Based on the data of the Egyptian Household Health Survey 2022 conducted by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and statements by officials in the Ministry of Health, the indicators of stunting in Egypt can be summarized as follows:

The percentage of children under the age of five who are stunted decreased from 21% in 2014 to 13% in 2021, as Figure No. (5) shows:

Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics

-One in 3 children under the age of 5 suffers from stunting.

– About 4% of children in Egypt suffer from severe short stature, and compared to what was reported in the Population Health Survey for 2014, we find a significant decrease in this percentage, which had reached about 10%.

– With regard to the age pattern, we find that the stunting rate is high among children at the age of one month and then decreases to rise again to reach the highest stunting rates among children in the age group (12:17 months) by 19%.

Figure (6) shows the rates of stunting by age

Source: Egyptian Family Health Survey 2021

There are some differences according to different geographical regions, where the percentage of short stature relative to age in the rural tribal face reaches 16% and decreases in the urban sea face to less than 10%.

The highest rate of stunting was recorded in the age group of 12-17 months at a rate of 18.5%, and the lowest rate was in the age group of 48-59 months at a rate of 7.9%. At the governorate level, the governorates of “sharqia, Port Said, and Gharbia” recorded the lowest rates at 4%. 6.7% and 8%, respectively, while the governorates of “South Sinai, Sohag, and Assiut” recorded the highest rates at 26.8%, 21.9%, and 19.9%, respectively.

Fifth: Causes of stunting in Egypt

Several factors cause children to suffer from stunting in Egypt, and a team of researchers at UNICEF and the American University in Cairo highlighted the most prominent of these factors, which were as follows:

1-lack of health awareness among mothers and inappropriate feeding practices.

Lack of awareness among mothers of the importance of proper nutrition during pregnancy is a major cause of stunting in Egypt, as most of the irreversible damage caused by malnutrition in Egypt occurs during the period from pregnancy until the first twenty-four months of life.

2- Lack of dietary diversity and insufficient complementary feeding practices: The type of complementary foods that children receive after the age of 6 months lacks diversity and nutritious elements, and this appears more clearly in Upper Egypt compared to Lower Egypt.

3- inadequate health care services: the lack of required micronutrients in family health units is one of the important obstacles to improving maternal and Child Health, as well as the shortage of trained specialists in family health units and lack of knowledge about infant and young child nutrition are other factors contributing to the problem.

Sixth: The Egyptian state’s efforts to confront stunting

The Egyptian state cares about the health of citizens, and has set clear goals to promote healthy and safe nutrition policies, and sought to reduce the spread of stunting disease, and the most prominent actions of the state were as follows:

Article 81 of the 2014 Constitution gave people with dwarfism many rights
After long years of marginalization and neglect, it stipulates that: “The state is committed to guaranteeing the rights of persons with disabilities and dwarves, in terms of health, economic, social, cultural, recreational, sports, and educational levels, and providing them with job opportunities, allocating a percentage of them to them, and preparing public facilities and the environment surrounding them, and for them to exercise all rights.” political, and integrate them with other citizens, in implementation of the principles of equality, justice, and equal opportunities.

In January 2023, the Egyptian Food Bank launched the “First Chance” program to reduce the spread of stunting and address this problem, starting with pregnant mothers, newborn mothers, and their children up to two years of age.

The program is implemented under the axis of prevention, which has served more than 37,000 children across 10 governorates, by providing healthy and proper nutrition, for both the pregnant mother and the newborn child. The program ensures that the mother has sufficient food and awareness for a very delicate stage of her life and the age of Fetus.

The Ministry of Social Solidarity launched the “The First Thousand Days of a Child’s Life” program as one of the mechanisms to improve the nutritional status of pregnant and breastfeeding women and infants, in a way that works to enhance the cognitive and physical development of children and protect them from the effects of malnutrition, which includes stunting.

Especially since 85% of a person’s health throughout his life is formed during the golden 1000 days, and any shortcomings in this period cannot be compensated for after that.
The program is witnessing a major expansion at the level of all governorates for Takaful and Karama families who have children less than two years old, with a maximum of two children per family or one child for a pregnant mother, in line with family planning policies, which brought the total number of beneficiaries of the Thousand Days Program to 87,700 beneficiaries by the end of August 2022.

Seventh: Recommendations to confront stunting

1- Develop a national strategy to eliminate stunting that is consistent with the sustainable development goals and is implemented according to a specific timetable and a precise and binding plan.

2- Activating Constitutional Article No. 81 of the 2014 Constitution, which obligates the state to employ people with dwarfism and grant medically equipped cars exempt from taxes and customs and a social security pension, in addition to several services, so they are considered among the disability categories for which 5% of the number of workers in the state is available.

3- The need to increase the number of trained specialists in family health units, and the availability of micronutrients required to improve maternal and child health.

4- Providing companies and factories with the necessary needs of people with dwarfism, including appropriate tools, clothes, and other needs that guarantee them a decent, humane life.

5- The need for civil society organizations to contribute to helping dwarves live their lives normally, working to rehabilitate them, helping to care for them healthily, psychologically, and socially, and integrating them into society.

6- Launching a national media campaign aimed at raising awareness about the nature of malnutrition diseases, including stunting, how to confront them, and the importance of mothers and children receiving proper nutrition, especially in the first 1,000 days of a child’s life.

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-The United Nations warned of the deterioration of the situation in Sudan, where the conflict entered its fourth month between the army led by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Lieutenant General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hamidati”, with a death toll of more than 3 thousand dead and more than 2.8 million displaced persons and refugees inside and outside the country, amid international movements to evacuate foreign nationals from the country.

-Sudan was on the right path towards a political transition in the country after the signing of the framework agreement between the civil and military components, but an armed conflict broke out between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces.

-This war portends a major humanitarian crisis with the continuation of the fighting and the insistence of the two sides to violate all attempts to truce and calm, accusing each other, and an increase in the number of dead and wounded, and a complete collapse in the health system, and a crisis of mass displacement from the scourge of the ongoing war, and the crisis of water and electricity cuts and the scarcity of food, fuel and medicine

-Sudan has a lot of good things, as it is one of the richest countries in natural resources such as gold, silver, natural gas, zinc, iron and chromite. It is the third largest African country – after South Africa and Ghana – in terms of gold resources known in the brown continent.

-It is surrounded by a number of economically or commercially closed countries, on which it depends, especially through Port Sudan, to provide its needs from abroad, and thus Sudan constitutes a crossing point for the trade of those closed countries with the outside world, such as Chad, South Sudan, Central Africa, Ethiopia and other countries, as well as the fact that the consolidation of the relations of different countries with Khartoum allows it to expand its geopolitical and commercial extension in the Red Sea.

-The paper concluded that the continuation of this war will complicate Sudan’s relations with international and regional financial institutions, especially with the disruption of facilities capable of producing food, and food import facilities. The priority of government spending will be military and security, as well as the difficulty of raising foreign exchange, and increasing unemployment rates among young people.

-It can also push the gross domestic product to decline in value and growth rates, which has a negative impact on regional and international financial institutions, such as the Trade and Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank, the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector, the African Development Bank, and the Islamic Development Bank.

The most important findings of the paper :

– Sudan accounts for about 13.5% of the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and Africa.

– Sudan ranks first for Egyptian exports to the Nile Basin countries worth 826.8 million dollars in 2021, and Sudan also ranked first for imports from the Nile Basin countries worth 336.7 million dollars.

– The volume of trade exchange between Egypt and Sudan recorded 1,434 billion dollars in 2022 compared to 1,212 billion dollars in 2021, while Egyptian exports to Sudan amounted to 929 million dollars in 2022, and Sudanese imports to Egypt amounted to about 504.5 dollars in 2022.

– Sudan is a major supplier of livestock and live meat, which is one of Egypt’s strategic commodities, as Sudan supplies Egypt with about 10% of its meat needs.

– Moody’s credit rating agency reported that the extension of clashes in Sudan for a prolonged period poses an increased risk and will have a negative credit impact on neighboring countries, including Egypt.

– The volume of Egyptian investment in Sudan is estimated at 2.7 billion dollars.

The economic situation in Sudan deteriorated during 2022 as a result of the political crisis that the country witnessed after the army’s actions on October 25, 2021, as public revenues reached $2.9 billion in 2022, representing 9.7% of Sudan’s GDP, which amounted to $30.5 billion with a growth rate of 0.6% by the end of 2021.

Total exports amounted to $4.3 billion in 2022, while total imports amounted to $11 billion, with a large deficit in the trade balance that exceeded $6.7 billion, after exports recorded $5 billion, and imports amounted to $9.9 billion, with a deficit of $4.8 billion in 2021, according to the statistical summary of foreign trade issued by the Central Bank of Sudan in December 2022. In addition to the decline in foreign investment and the decrease in remittances of Sudanese working abroad, which represent about 60% of the total sources of foreign exchange, according to official data, which caused a decrease in the state’s foreign exchange revenues.

-The authorities tended to compensate for this shortfall by increasing taxes, which caused the economy to stagnate, prices rose, and the purchasing power of citizens declined. All hopes were attached to a quick arrival of an agreement on the return of the transitional path, the resumption of economic reforms, and the return to dealing with the international community again. But it dissipated with the outbreak of the war on April 15, which renewed fears of the Sudanese economy slipping towards a comprehensive collapse.

-Foreign countries evacuated their nationals for fear of the expansion of the war, which paralyzed economic activity, as it raises the dangers of commercial dealings with Sudan, and causes the migration of capital, and citizens suffer from extremely complex conditions after the World Food Program suspended its programs because of it. The country is likely to witness a wave of security chaos that makes the flow of goods to markets extremely difficult, which increases fears of famine in a country that was at risk of famine before the war broke out.

Second: Egyptian-Sudanese Economic Relations

-Economic relations between Egypt and Sudan have witnessed great development and growth over the past years, but there is no doubt that the ongoing conflict in Sudan will affect the economic activity between the two countries, especially with regard to the rate of trade exchange.

-Sudan accounts for about 13.5% of the volume of trade exchange between Egypt and the African continent, especially after the opening of the Qastal-Akit land port in 2015, which is considered the most important gateway for Egypt to Africa as it contributes to a major shift in the trade exchange movement between Egypt on the one hand and Sudan and the African continent on the other.

– Sudan ranks first for Egyptian exports to the Nile Basin countries worth 826.8 million dollars in 2021, out of a total export value of 1.6 billion dollars, or 51.7%.. it also ranked first for imports from the Nile Basin countries worth 336.7 million dollars in 2021, out of a total of 662.1 million dollars, or 50.9%, according to the annual bulletin entitled “trade exchange between Egypt and the Nile Basin countries in 2021” issued by the central agency for public mobilization and statistics in November 2022.

-It should be noted that Sudan is a major supplier of livestock and live cows, which is one of Egypt’s strategic commodities, as Sudan provides Egypt with about 10% of its meat needs.

-Egypt and Sudan have strong and solid historical relations, they are united by a common destiny, and the relationship between the two countries is complementary, not competitive, and is considered an indispensable ally due to its strategic importance to Egypt. Their common borders are estimated at 1276 km, and they share a global waterway, the Red Sea, as well as common ties, whether historical or cultural.

Third: Repercussions of Sudan  war on Egypt

The continuation of the conflict in Sudan affects the security and stability of the entire region. Sudan’s instability is a matter of concern, especially to neighboring countries and the Horn of Africa, where the number of affected countries is estimated to be about 17 countries that depend in one way or another on Sudan’s political, security and economic stability.

While the Egyptian government seeks to reduce the consequences of the Ukrainian war and provide social protection for the citizen, the Sudanese crisis has added a new burden to it, especially since more than 145,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Egypt since the start of the armed conflict, according to estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which had stated in August 2022 that the number of Sudanese refugees in Egypt is estimated at between 58,000 and 60,000 people. This is in addition to what was revealed by the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IMO) that the number of Sudanese immigrants in Egypt has reached 4 million.

There is no doubt that important economic sectors will be affected by this conflict, and its impact may even extend to the citizen through a new rise in the prices of some commodities, including meat for example, as it is expected that the imported quantities of Sudanese meat will decline, which was part of attempts to address the high price of meat in the Egyptian local market.

It is expected that a number of sectors will be affected, such as construction materials, electrical appliances, processed food, clothing, and some agricultural products, which depend in part of their work on exporting products to Sudan in dollars. While the economic effects are not clear at present, it is certain that the continuation of the conflict in Sudan will have great and dangerous consequences in the coming period.

Egypt is economically affected by the crisis in Sudan in several ways, as follows:

1-Commerce

Trade exchange rates between Egypt and Sudan increased by 18.2% in 2022 to reach $1.434 billion, according to estimates by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. Sudan accounts for 13.2% of the value of commerce exchange between Egypt and the countries of the African continent.

These numbers were on the way to escalation and growth in light of the two countries’ desire to expand the volume of trade exchange between them, through the establishment of various projects, including an electrical interconnection project and the establishment of a railway between the two countries.

The current war came to impede these aspirations, and cast a shadow over the economic situation, which is still suffering from the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and its negative effects on global supply chains.

2-Workers Remittances

The number of Egyptians residing in Sudan is estimated at 150,400 thousand Egyptians until the end of 2020, and it is expected that the remittances of Egyptians working in Sudan will decline significantly due to the return of most of them to Egypt again due to the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

However, on the other hand, the remittances of Sudanese working in Egypt will continue to be transferred to Sudan, and in the event of the end of the existing conflict, there is an opportunity for Egypt to increase its exports at various levels to Sudan in light of the suffering of the Sudanese economy.

3-Food sector in Egypt

Egypt was supposed to benefit from the agricultural lands that it had begun to cultivate inside the Sudanese state, with its abundance of water and fertile lands, which would have achieved self-sufficiency in the Egyptian food sector. Rather, Egypt was aiming to export large quantities abroad.

It is expected that food security in Egypt will be affected by the current situation in Sudan due to the shortage of both meat and grains. It is worth noting that Sudan ranks first at the Arab and African level and sixth at the world level in livestock, and produces important crops, primarily: wheat, cotton, beans, corn, and sesame.

4-Egyptian investments and employment

Egypt has already started constructing a railway extending from within the Aswan Governorate to the Sudanese state for easy access between
The two countries in order to expand the volume of trade exchange in various sectors.

It will also facilitate the coming and the going for Egyptian and Sudanese workers between the two countries.

The joint projects between the two countries will also be affected. We have many Egyptian governmental or private sector companies that invest in Sudan in agriculture, industry, electricity, land reclamation, construction, service fields, and others.
The investment volume is estimated at about $2.7 billion. The Egyptian El Sewedy Electric Cables Company is one of the most prominent Egyptian companies operating in Sudan. And with the continuation of the fighting, it will stop completely, which will have negative repercussions on the economies of the two countries.

With the return of Egyptian workers from Sudan and the displacement of thousands of Sudanese to Egypt due to suffering from war conditions, the Egyptian state bears a great economic burden..This is in addition to the Egyptian students studying in Sudan, legalizing their conditions, and setting up mechanisms for their admission, whether in schools or universities, as well as the Sudanese, whose absorption mechanisms are determined according to the determinants set by the state, which also strain its budget.

5- The banking sector and regional credit institutions

Moody’s credit rating agency reported that the continuation of the clashes in Sudan will have a negative credit impact on neighboring countries.

Moody’s added that if the clashes in Sudan develop into a long civil war, the destruction of infrastructure and the deterioration of social conditions, this will lead to long-term economic consequences and a decline in the quality of the assets of multilateral banks in Sudan, in addition to an increase in non-performing loans and liquidity.

6-At the level of regional financial institutions

1- “Afrixim Bank” has about $930 million in loans in Sudan, and it has insurance on only $220 million of them. As a result of the war, banks and multilateral financing institutions will be affected and their ability to finance projects in the region as a whole. These developments are also reflected on banks and financial institutions operating in Sudan and neighboring countries.

2- African Export-Import Bank: 31% of its loans are directed to Sudan.

3- The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector: 3.1% of its assets are concentrated in Khartoum.

Fourth: The Egyptian role towards the crisis in Sudan

Egypt is exerting unremitting efforts to achieve calm, defuse the crisis and advance the path of a peaceful solution in Sudan, without the support of a particular party. Egypt’s position is clear and firm towards the crisis in Sudan as it is an internal matter that should not be interfered with so as not to lead to an exacerbation of the conflict.

By hosting a conference of Sudan’s neighboring countries recently, Cairo affirmed its unlimited support for Sudan and its endeavor to formulate a common vision for neighboring countries, develop effective mechanisms to settle the crisis peacefully, and take steps to stop bloodshed and preserve the Sudanese state and its capabilities.

The Egyptian political leadership envisioned a way out for Sudan from its current impasse:

– Call on the warring parties to stop the escalation and start without delay in serious negotiations aimed at reaching an immediate and sustainable ceasefire.

-Launching an inclusive dialogue for the political parties, with the participation of political and civil forces and representatives of women and youth, aiming to start a comprehensive political process.

-Formation of a communication mechanism emanating from this conference to develop an executive action plan to reach a comprehensive solution to the Sudanese crisis.

Among the recommendations of the Conference of Sudan’s Neighboring Countries is the emphasis on the importance of dealing with the current crisis and its humanitarian consequences in a serious and comprehensive manner, given that the continuation of the crisis will result in an increase in the displaced and more people fleeing the conflict to neighboring countries, especially Egypt.

Egypt also participated in the international ministerial meeting held by the African Union Commission and signed the statement issued by it. It is also coordinating with a number of international organizations and governments to discuss ways out of this crisis.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued instructions to facilitate entry procedures for Sudanese and obtain a visa for those between the ages of 16 to 50 years, and to allow the passage of children under 16 years, as well as women and men over 50 years of age, provided they have a passport.

Conclusion

While the world is preoccupied with attempts to find a political solution to the current war in Sudan, signs of significant economic repercussions are looming on the horizon for Egypt and neighboring countries if the war continues for a long time, which is what Moody’s credit rating agency warned about, expecting a negative credit impact on neighboring countries.

The war has multiple political, security, humanitarian and economic repercussions, which require rational policies to deal with it. The Egyptian state has recently demonstrated its ability to deal with crises with wisdom and political balance, and with measures that contribute to limiting their effects on the economy and the citizen. This is the policy it still pursues despite the many burdens.

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Number of tourists increased in the first quarter of 2023 by 86% compared to the same period last year, and reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels, and the Middle East region witnessed the strongest performance in the first quarter of 2023 as the only region that exceeded the levels of 2023. 2019 by 15%, according to a report by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

Egypt is one of the most important destinations attracting tourism in the world due to its rich and diverse natural resources and tourist, archaeological and human potentials, in addition to its unique cultural heritage, which enables it to maximize its revenues from the tourism sector, especially as it contributes about 11.3% of the total national income, and provides About 13% of the total foreign exchange, and about 12.6% of the total strength of the Egyptian labor market.

The Strategic Forum for Public Policies and Development Studies “Derayah” presents a research paper that illustrates the economic importance of the tourism sector in Egypt, sheds light on the reality of the sector through multiple performance indicators, and monitors the state’s efforts to develop and enhance the sector, and finally recommends many proposals that would support the tourism sector This research paper reached a set of results, including:

-The tourism sector is the third largest source of foreign income after exports and remittances of Egyptians working abroad, with a percentage of about 13%.
-The tourism sector contributes to the country’s gross domestic product, by about 91.4 billion pounds during the year 2021/2022, with a growth rate of 31.5%. compared to the previous year, which amounted to 69.5 billion pounds.

-Tourism revenues increased by an average of 25.7% to record about 7.3 billion dollars (compared to about 5.8 billion dollars), which contributed to the reduction of the current account deficit.

-The net inflows of foreign direct investments in the tourism sector during the second quarter of 2023/2022 amounted to about 98 million dollars, compared to 60.1 million in the first quarter of 2023/2022, and 29.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2022/2021.

-Egypt received 7 million tourists during the first five months of 2023, including 1.35 million tourists during April, the highest level recorded by Egypt during one month in its history.

-Revenues of the tourism sector during the fiscal year 2021/2022 amounted to about 10.7 billion dollars, compared to 4.9 billion dollars in 2020/2021, an increase of 121.1%.
-The tourism is characterized as a labor-intensive sector, with 3 million people working in professions directly and indirectly related to tourism, representing about 12.6% of the total labor force in Egypt.

First: The importance of tourism contributions in Egyptian economy

Many experts and researchers attribute the economic importance of the tourism sector to a variety of reasons and justifications, which can be explained as follows:

-Tourism is a dynamic sector characterized by high growth rates and its large sectoral contribution to GDP growth. It is one of the main sources of foreign exchange in Egypt.

-It is characterized by the expansion of its labor capacity, as its hotel and tourism facilities provide many job opportunities, especially for the youth crowd.

-The development of the tourism sector and the subsequent establishment of new communities in desert and rural areas contribute to the redistribution and migration of the population, and pushes the wheel of Social Development.

Tourism has become one of the pillars of the Egyptian economy, due to its contribution to several economic aspects, the most important of which are:

-It is one of the most important foreign exchange inputs to the national economy, at a rate of about 13%.

According to official data, the tourism sector is the third largest source of foreign income for the country after exports and remittances of Egyptians working abroad, followed by revenues from the Suez Canal and foreign direct investment.

2- The tourism sector occupies an advanced position among the economic activities, in terms of its contribution to the country’s gross domestic product.

The gross domestic product of this sector increased at current prices during the year 2021/2022 to about 91.4 billion pounds, with a growth rate of 31.5%. compared to the previous year, which amounted to 69.5 billion pounds, according to the report of the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development issued in mid-2022.

3-The tourism sector contributes directly to improving the position of the balance of payments and increasing the added value through the revenues that the sector pumps, whether in the form of investments, taxes or fees.

In this context, the Central Bank of Egypt announced in a press release that tourism revenues increased by 25.7%, to record about $7.3 billion (compared to about $5.8 billion) during the first half of the fiscal year 2022/2023 (July-December period), This has contributed to the reduction of the current account deficit.

4- Providing millions of job opportunities: Tourism is a labor-intensive sector, with approximately 12.6% of the total labor force in Egypt working in professions directly and indirectly related to tourism, which often alleviates the problem of unemployment.

Second: indicators of tourism performance growth in Egypt

The growth of tourism performance in Egypt can be measured through four main indicators, which are the number of tourists (inbound tourism), the number of tourist nights, and tourism revenues.

Some experts may add to it the absorptive capacity index as one of the indicators used in evaluating growth indicators.

1- Inbound Tourism Indicators

Egypt received 7 million tourists during the first five months of 2023, including 1.35 million tourists during the month of April, which is the highest level that Egypt recorded during one month in its history, according to the statements of the Minister of Tourism and Antiquities Ahmed Issa, who also confirmed that the incoming tourism movement in the months of January And last February, it witnessed a growth of 35%, compared to the same period last year.

Egypt received about 11.7 million tourists in 2022, up from 8 million in 2021, 3.7 million in 2020, and 13.1 million in 2019.

Some estimates confirm that the last quarter of 2023 will witness a growth in the inbound tourism movement exceeding 28%, which will contribute to reaching the number of tourists to 15 million tourists at the end of 2023, and between 18 to 20 million tourists during the year 2024, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Tourism. Egyptian tourism, which is expected to witness the largest ever tourism movement during the coming period, and exceed the rates of 2010, which recorded visits of about 14 million tourists.

The following figure shows the evolution of the number of tourists to Egypt between 2010 and 2022

2- the indicator of the number of tourist nights

The number of tourist nights increased during the first half of the fiscal year 2022/2023 (July/December period) by an average of 27.2% to record about 78.4 million nights, according to central bank data.

During 2022, the number of tourist nights increased by 39.7%, reaching 131 million tourist nights, compared to 93.8 million tourist nights in 2021, and 43 million tourist nights in 2020, according to the data of the central agency for public mobilization and statistics in June 2023.

3- the carrying capacity indicator

The number of hotel establishments is about 1,199, the number of hotel rooms is about 230,000, the number of tourism companies is about 2,259, and there are about 2,160 archaeological sites, of which 134 are open for visiting, and 43 are antiquities museums, of which 31 are open for visits, and 479 diving and marine activities centers and 1,325 restaurants. And a tourist cafeteria, and 2,407 shops for ordinary and tourist goods, and about 18,190 tourist vehicles, according to the official website of the Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities and the statements of the Minister of Tourism.

The number of natural reserves in Egypt is about 30, representing an area of 13.6% of the total area of Egypt, and the number of airports is about 26 civil airports in June 2022.

4- tourism revenue index

Revenues of the tourism sector in Egypt increased during the first half of the fiscal year 2022-2023 by 25.7% compared to the same period in 2021-2022, according to central bank data.

The revenues of the tourism sector during the fiscal year 2021/2022 amounted to about 10.7 billion dollars, compared to 4.9 billion dollars in 2020/2021, an increase of 121.1%, according to the data of the central agency for public mobilization and statistics issued on June 9, 2023.

The data showed the growth in tourism revenues in light of the obstacles and crises that the sector has been exposed to in recent years due to the corona pandemic and the Russian and Ukrainian crisis, where tourism revenues reached 4.4 billion dollars in 2016/2017 with an increase of 16.2%, 9.8 billion dollars in 2017/2018 with an increase of 123.9%, 12.6 billion dollars in 2018/2019 with an increase of 28.2%, and 9.9 billion dollars in 2019/2020 with a decrease of 21.6%, and 4.9 billion dollars in 2020/2021 with a decrease of 50.7%, and 10.7 billion dollars during 2021/2022 with an increase of 121.1%, as mentioned earlier.

Figure No. (1) shows the volume of tourism sector revenues between 2016 and 2022

The World Bank expects that tourism revenues in Egypt in the next five years will reach:
• $14.2 billion in 2023-2024.
• $18.9 billion in 2024-2025
• $22.8 billion in 2025-2026
• $26.5 billion in 2026-2027
• $28.8 billion in 2027-2028

Third: Plans to promote the tourism sector in Egypt

The national strategy to support tourism in Egypt aims to achieve rapid growth in this industry, ranging from 25% to 30% annually through optimal utilization of the country’s tourism, natural, human and archaeological resources, ensuring their sustainability, and providing distinguished and advanced infrastructure and services to increase the competitiveness of Egypt.

The national strategy to support tourism in Egypt aims to achieve rapid growth in this industry, ranging from 25% to 30% annually through optimal utilization of the country’s tourism, natural, human and archaeological resources and ensuring their sustainability, and providing a distinguished and developed infrastructure to increase the competitiveness of Egypt.

In light of this, Egypt adopts a set of ambitious plans to advance the tourism sector and maximize its revenues, based on a number of main axes and pillars, the most important of which are:
Focus on Marketing and Promotion

The tourism sector plan aims to intensify tourism promotion activities and apply innovative stimulation tools to enhance the product in the face of intense competition from other tourist destinations through a number of important axes such as strengthening the marketing and advertising message abroad and the effective implementation of the international promotion campaign that was contracted with major specialized companies.

Among the most important promotional campaigns are the campaigns “Your vacation is with us” and “The day in Egypt does not end” to promote tourism to Egypt during the summer season 2022, especially in the Arab market and the Gulf region, in addition to stimulating domestic tourism in Egypt.

1-Stimulating tourist investors

State agencies have taken a number of steps to support and stimulate tourism and hotel investments in the country. These steps are as follows:

– The initiative launched by the Central Bank in February of 2017, to finance the renewal operations needed by hotel establishments and fleets of tourist cars, as an amount of 5 billion pounds was allocated for this initiative.

-The central bank returned at the beginning of this year 2020 and launched a new version of this initiative, allocating 50 billion pounds to tourism companies, in order to include the largest possible number of tourism investments inside Egypt.

2-Return to work in the aviation incentive program:

The Egyptian government has sought to benefit from the aviation stimulus program as an effective tool in advancing tourism in Egypt, by encouraging air carriers to direct the largest possible number of their flights to Egyptian tourist destinations, in addition to opening new airlines, such as the Marsa Alam airport, the Netherlands and Ukraine, and another between Georgia to Hurghada.

3-Improving tourist service

The Ministry of Tourism was keen to develop a strategy to qualify and develop the human resource in the tourism sector, in cooperation with the Egyptian Federation of Tourist Chambers, through a training project for various groups working in tourism, such as tour guides, hotel workers and recreational activities, in addition to company representatives and tourist car drivers.

The Egyptian government has also taken several other stimulating and supportive measures for the tourism sector, including:

-Implementing the e-tourist visa system, and automating the purchase of tickets for archaeological sites and museums electronically.

-Establishing a unified database system for workers in the tourism sector, as well as automating the services of the hotel sector.

-The Tourism Promotion Authority signed agreements with many TV stations and markets that deal with Egyptian destinations, to launch advertising campaigns aimed at introducing tourists to Egypt and its various tourist destinations.

Fourth: The tourism sector in the light of international indicators and acclaim

-Egypt advanced 20 places in the safety and security index for expatriates issued by Intentions, which measures personal safety and security as part of the quality of life, as Egypt ranked 42 in 2022, compared to 62 in 2016.

-It ranked 12th globally out of 138 countries in the global Islamic Travel Index 2022.
-It ranked first in the Arab region, fourth in Africa, and 27th globally, in the road trip tourism practice index out of 118 countries, noting that the index depends on 3 sub-indicators (attractiveness, logistics, lifestyle).

-Egypt is on the list of international travel and tourism nominations, where:
Choosing Egypt is among the best tourist destinations to travel to in the fall of 2022, according to a CNN Travel report.

-“Travel Inside” magazine chose Egypt as the first in the world among the most popular tourist destinations during the current period, outperforming many other tourist destinations such as the Maldives and the Caribbean islands.

– Hurghada ranked second as the best tourist destination in the Middle East for the year 2023, after Dubai, which ranked first, according to Tripadvisor.

– Egypt also won the second place as the best diving destination in the world for the year 2021, according to Dive Magazine.

fifth: proposals to promote growth in the tourism sector in Egypt

In order to develop the performance and drive the growth engine of the tourism sector in Egypt, this paper recommends the need to work on:

-Joint cooperation and integration of all efforts between the ministries and the relevant authorities in the sector, each in its field, to achieve more successes and the best desired results to reach the sector to wider horizons.
-Developing stimulating policies for investment, especially hotel investment, tourist transport, the establishment of sports cities and entertainment attractions, increasing the number of hotel rooms … and others.

-Launching tourist economic zones, or free tourist zones, and granting tax and financial privileges and exemptions for specific periods of time, while creating the legislative environment to achieve this in order to increase the attraction of investors towards investment in the tourism sector , by offering units of a tourist nature consistent with international standards on local and international electronic platforms, resulting in an increase in tourist units and hotel rooms.

-Training and qualification of workers in the tourism sector on how to deal with different cultures of tourists and providing them with communication, teamwork and leadership skills.

– The need to launch a unified Egyptian platform for tourism promotion that facilitates booking, flight and visa procedures, as well as hotel reservations.

– Activating the role of tourism media to spread cultural awareness among citizens of the importance of tourism, as well as working to improve the image of tourism among foreigners.

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This paper aims to analyze the current global economic crises and determine their repercussions on the overall performance, and to identify the measures taken by governments to confront the crises, and the proposed ways that can be taken to reduce their repercussions.

The research paper reached the most important repercussions of the current crises for the global economy as follows:
1- Global growth recorded a decline from 4.4% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023.

2- High inflation is expected to persist for longer than expected, with continued disruptions in supply chains as well as high energy prices in 2022.

3- Supply chain disruptions, volatility in energy prices, and concentrations of wage pressures in certain places all mean high uncertainty about inflation and policy trajectories.

4- A deterioration in the direction of profits by multinational companies in the list of the top 100 companies affiliated to UNCTAD, which is considered a magnet for foreign direct investment trends in the world.

5- Market indicators point to inflationary pressures directed at local currency bonds, and in the face of mounting price pressures, many central banks in emerging markets continued to raise key interest rates.

6- A noticeable rise in real emerging market interest rates, affected by the repercussions of returning to normal monetary policy in advanced economies.

First: the impact on the development of the overall performance of the global economy

1. Impact on gross domestic product

According to the International Monetary Fund, global growth recorded a decline from 4.4% in 2022, to 3.8% in 2023. A contraction in GDP occurred starting in 2020 using the weights of the exchange rate in the market, which is the deepest global recession in decades.

The global economy has lost more than $2 trillion, especially since the coronavirus has led to an economic recession that has put pressure on public health funding, weakening the world’s ability to prevent or contain a virus outbreak afterwards. The response to this emergency has also created new risks – such as the massive increase in levels of public and private debt in the global economy.

2. Impact on commodity prices

Inflation is expected to remain high for longer than expected, with interruptions in supply chains as well as high energy prices continuing in 2022. Assuming that inflation expectations remain at a good level of stability around the target pillar, its rate is expected to gradually decrease as the imbalances between supply and demand recede in 2022 and the monetary policy response in major economies, where it is expected to remain high in the near term, averaging 3.9% in advanced economies and 5.9% in emerging market and developing economies in 2022, before declining in 2023 .

Figure No. (1) Inflation rate during the period (January 2021 – January 2022)

3- Impact on foreign direct investmentThe United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expected a global decline in the flow of foreign direct investment by 30-40% during the period (2020-2021). And the most profitable sectors have become: pharmacy and sterilizers, electronic commerce, remote work, logistic services, communication applications and distance education. The sectors that lost the most were: aviation, travel and tourism, hotel and hospitality, conferences, exhibitions and festivals, trade and services, oil and commodity exchanges.

Figure No. (2):foreign direct investment flows worldwide
During the period (2015-2022) one trillion dollars

Figure (2) shows foreign direct investment flows worldwide during the period (2015-2022), as it achieved $2 trillion in 2015 and continued to decline since then until it reached $1.5 trillion in 2019. As a result of the repercussions of Corona, it decreased in 2020 to approach trillion dollars, then it rose to 1.2 trillion dollars in 2022.

There is a rapid deterioration in profit guidance by multinational companies in the list of the top 100 companies affiliated to UNCTAD which is a magnet for foreign direct investment trends, as there are 61% of the multinational companies in the list of the top 100 companies affiliated to UNCTAD.

Figure No. (3) Financial situation indicators in the different regions during the period (2016-2022)

Source: International Monetary Fund: Update on the Global Economic Outlook, (Washington: International Monetary Fund, January 2022)

According to Figure (3), central banks in advanced economies took steps towards returning to normal monetary policy, while policy makers in many emerging markets continued to tighten monetary policy.

Figure No. (4) Flows of equity funds for emerging markets during the period (January 2021-January 2022)

Source: International Monetary Fund: Update on the Global Economic Outlook, (Washington: International Monetary Fund, January 2022)

Market indicators in this figure point to inflationary pressures directed at bonds in the local currency, except in China, albeit with great disparity between regions. In the face of mounting price pressures, many emerging market central banks continued to raise policy rates, exceeding pre-crisis levels in several countries.

Second: Policies taken by governments to confront the crises of the global economy

The set of policies chosen to address the effects of the crisis in the short term varies greatly from country to country, depending on the availability of resources and the specific nature of the risks that countries face. In addition to direct income support programmes, governments and central banks have made unprecedented use of policies aimed at temporary debt relief, including moratoriums on debt payments for the household and corporate sectors.

Figure No. (5) Interest rate fluctuations during the period (January 2020 – January 2022)

Source: International Monetary Fund: Update on the Global Economic Outlook, (Washington: International Monetary Fund, January 2022)

According to Figure No. (5), long-term global interest rates have increased dramatically since the beginning of 2022 until they reached record high levels for the pandemic era, reflecting in part the prevailing perception that the Federal Reserve will accelerate the restoration of normal monetary conditions, and then put an end to the witnessed decline in December due to concerns about the Omicron effect.

A number of governments have taken substantial targeted fiscal, monetary and financial market actions to support affected households and businesses.

Among the important measures taken by the central banks of a number of countries is the provision of monetary stimulus facilities and the availability of liquidity in order to reduce systemic pressure. Supervisors are encouraging banks to renegotiate loans to households and firms currently in distress while maintaining a transparent assessment of credit risk.

The International Monetary Fund provided a number of assistance to countries in facing the effects of the crisis, and supported the efforts made at the level of national policies to limit economic damage, through the Fund’s facilities directed at lending.

Third: policies to reduce the repercussions of global economic crises

Close multilateral cooperation is a necessary requirement for overcoming the effects of crises in the global economy, including assistance to countries that lack financial resources.

A number of proposals can be presented in order to manage the crisis and mitigate its impact, provide incentives and accelerate recovery, as follows:

1- At the level of public policies

Governments should take macro policy responses, through the following:

A- That central banks improve the provision of liquidity, and mitigate the major financial pressures that weaken economies, to improve access to finance for small and medium enterprises, and encourage lending and investment.

b- Improving social protection systems, by expanding coverage of cash transfer programs, food aid, unemployment benefits and other programs.

C – Extending the repayment deadlines for individual loans and mortgages, stopping the payment of government fees temporarily, and exempting the needy from taxes.

d- Providing credit support and interest-free loans to small and medium-sized companies and the self-employed.

2- At sectoral level

A- Ensuring the continuation and increase of agricultural production to meet potential food shortages, by improving the ability to obtain credit, enhancing production inputs, increasing the areas of public leased land, and removing barriers to trade.

b- Supporting small-scale food producers, and providing them with in-kind assets and production inputs such as seeds, organic fertilizers, and irrigation systems.

c) Reducing telecommunication tariffs and fees for households and individuals; improving broadband internet speed; Remote work, distance learning, and social communication.

D – Calling on multinational companies not to change basic income levels, in order to prevent further weaknesses in the balance of payments and financial accounts.

3- At  regional level

A regional response should be implemented that supports national efforts and leads to the mobilization of resources and expertise. The responses implemented by regional development and financial institutions, as well as intergovernmental organizations and United Nations agencies, should embody the principle of leaving no one behind, by making every effort to reach the most marginalized groups. via the following:

a- Governments are invited to establish a regional fund for social solidarity in order to support countries at risk, including least developed countries.

Allocating this fund to serve the poor and vulnerable groups, ensuring expedited response, and providing relief in times of food shortages or health emergencies.

b- Regional development financial institutions, as well as multilateral financial institutions, shall consider setting up mechanisms to postpone and reduce debt repayment, with the aim of enhancing the fiscal space available to middle- and low-income countries worldwide.

c-Regional funds direct investments towards the health sector and small and medium enterprises, and can support soft loans to governments, to finance additional expenditures in the health sector in each country.

d- Specialized regional funds provide urgent financial support within the framework of aid-for-trade initiatives, by designing and financing appropriate programs to support exporters and importers.

Finally, the provision of large-scale global stimulus and liquidity facilities aimed at reducing stresses in the financial system can raise confidence and prevent a deeper downturn in demand, by limiting the expansion of the shock in the financial system, and strengthening the prospects for eventual economic recovery.

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In light of suffering many Egyptian cities and governorates from population concentration or overcrowding, where about 97% of the population resides on an area not exceeding 7%, and the consequent negative impact on the infrastructure, facilities and services in them, The Egyptian state has adopted a new vision aimed at re-engineering the geo-economic appearance of Egypt, and finding distinct areas in the Egyptian desert that would disrupt the existing urban mass, and attract population density from the narrow valley to new cities that have basic attractions, achieve the well-being of its residents, meet their living requirements, and guarantee them Distinctive quality of life, as well as achieving sustainability standards, and securing multiple economic opportunities.

And then the idea of establishing new administrative capital came to expand the circle of development and urbanization, that project that addresses the eternal problems of the old capital, most of which are poor planning, weak infrastructure, and its lack of readiness to achieve Egypt’s vision 2030, which aims to transform Egypt into a country with a digital economy based on Knowledge, an economy expanding in the fourth industrial revolution and capable of providing distinguished services to citizens and investors.

The idea was inspired by the successful global experiences in re-establishing their capitals. Many countries have taken the step of establishing alternative capitals, for reasons ranging from political, economic and demographic. Over the past fifty years only 13 countries have taken such a step, such as Brazil, Kazakhstan and Malaysia. This policy has proven successful in redrawing the economic, social and cultural dimension of countries, and transforming them into new cities that can lead the world.

In this context, this paper highlights the economic importance of the Administrative Capital and the expected revenues from its establishment, through the following axes:

First: an overview of the administrative capital

Second: The economic importance of the Administrative Capital and the revenues arising from it

Third: The most important criticisms to the Administrative Capital and the response to them

The most important results of the paper are as follows:

– The Administrative Capital project succeeded in creating an economic value for the land on which it is built and raising its value, adding an economic value to the Egyptian state by about EGP 2 trillion.

-it was chosen to be the Arab Digital Capital for the year 2021 by the Arab Council of Ministers for Communications and Information, For its highly advanced digital and technological infrastructure.

– The New Administrative Capital is one of the largest and most important national projects that have direct and indirect advantages for the Egyptian economy by providing many job opportunities and achieving popularity in the real estate market and construction companies.

– The real estate sector contributes about 15.2% of the GDP, and employs 3.4 million workers (13% of the total number of workers in Egypt). The sector enjoys forward and backward links with more than 100 other industries.

The Administrative Capital Company was able to achieve liquidity of more than 40 billion pounds, in addition to more than 40 billion pounds due to others. The new administrative capital project is funded by selling desert lands that have been without value or exploitation for centuries.

First: an overview of the Administrative Capital

The project area, when completed, will be about 700 square kilometers, or 170,000 acres, and the implementation will take place in 3 phases. The area of the first phase of the project is about 168 square kilometers (40,000 acres), which is almost half the area of Cairo, which is about 90,000 acres. It was designed to be the center of national economic power, and the main headquarters for ministries and public and private sector companies, in the midst of a group of urban neighborhoods, and work has been done on the infrastructure to be a sustainable, smart city with the latest technologies.

The capital was built in the east of Cairo, and it is surrounded by the most important main roads: the Cairo/Suez road, the Cairo/Ain Sukhna road, the middle ring road, and the regional ring road, and those roads made the location of the new administrative capital close to the most important strategic places in Egypt. It is divided into 3 neighborhoods: the residential district, the government district, and the business district.

The Administrative Capital is the first technological smart city to be established within Egypt’s Vision 2030. It relies on sustainability methods and provides services electronically using the latest technological means, and contains the latest urban systems in the world. The government seeks to encourage housing in the new capital, by facilitating methods of financing housing units, and the existence of a strong infrastructure and transportation networks linking it to the various locations in the country. The issue of population distribution is more related to the process of economic development in the various Egyptian governorates, What makes the provinces attractive rather than repellent.

Second: Economic significance and returns to the administrative capital

The importance of establishing a new administrative capital is growing in addition to being an alternative headquarters for government ministries and a cultural and civilizational center, as it will also become a new economic city for Egypt. Here, many people have a question: “How does the Administrative Capital contribute to the lives of citizens directly and indirectly, and what is its role in supporting Egypt’s Vision 2030?” We can answer it through the following points:

1-Promoting Egypt’s economic growth

The Administrative Capital is a step on the right path to building a modern state and moving to it administratively or residentially, in addition to the expected economic returns, especially since there are large companies, universities, private institutes, service projects, and investments amounting to 800 billion pounds, which provided thousands of job opportunities and contributed to moving economic growth, and it is one of the mechanisms sustainable development for Egypt 2030.

The expansion of the street network and the establishment of industrial zones and auxiliary services achieve investment prosperity and help urban expansion, which benefits the Egyptian economy as a whole.

2- Adoption of a new legislative system

Egypt approved a new legislative reform system related to the Egyptian economy file, as it is among the achievements in addition to the huge infrastructure projects, the administrative capital, and 14 new cities of the fourth generation, and the enactment of the investment law and its executive regulations, and what the law included in terms of investment incentives for foreign companies and investors, in addition to facilitating the establishment of companies.

These steps pave the way for building a strong state, and the transfer of services to the Administrative Capital with mechanization will attract investors and facilitate the establishment of companies and projects.

3- Increasing infrastructure projects

The value of spending on infrastructure projects in the New Administrative Capital has reached at least EGP 80 billion so far, given that it is considered the most important means of attracting more foreign investments, which provide more job opportunities. Here comes the impact of these projects on the citizen indirectly, and their greatest returns will be during the coming years.

4- Developing services and reducing corruption

The new capital will be a first-class technological capital for Egypt, and work in it will be with modern technology only between government agencies and citizens, to end the era of usual paper in government departments, which calls for training employees on technological development and work without papers.

The digital transformation will have a role in developing services provided to citizens and reducing corruption in a way that contributes to the advancement of government work and achieves greater transparency and governance, which ultimately results in improving services provided to citizens.

5- Increasing private sector investment

Private sector investments account for the financing of the Administrative Capital, with a volume of 300 billion pounds. According to what the Council of Ministers announced, all New Administrative Capital projects will be funded completely independently of lending from banks, by relying on the Administrative Capital Company’s revenues from the proceeds of selling lands to real estate developers, in addition to investments in the project.

Companies operating in the private sector in the field of construction, marble, granite and building materials companies in general have achieved great benefit by supplying the needs of the construction of the capital, which contributed to a great movement in the Egyptian economy.

6- Attracting foreign direct investment

The establishment of the new capital in the desert and the transfer of the administrative structure to it will contribute to the establishment of many service and development projects and attract more foreign and local investment, which will accelerate economic growth and allow the establishment of projects for capital and productive goods.

7- Providing job opportunities

The projects established in the New Administrative Capital provide many job opportunities, estimated at 1.5 million new job opportunities, which would contribute to improving the standard of living of citizens.

8- Promoting new and green energy industries

The state has paid great attention to increasing reliance on renewable and green energies in the Administrative Capital project, as it is planned that about 50% of the rooftops in the Administrative Capital will be covered with solar energy, and 52 stations will be installed in the government district, as part of a plan to circulate solar energy in the Administrative Capital by The year 2035. The Administrative Capital for Urban Development Company has announced opening the door to investment in the purchase of energy produced from solar energy cells on the roofs of buildings in the residential neighborhoods of the New Administrative Capital.

9- Reducing pressure on Cairo

The idea of establishing the new administrative capital came to relieve pressure on the old capital, Greater Cairo, which is the most crowded capital in the world.
Therefore, the state has drawn up a plan to transfer ministries and government departments, and its first phase has already been implemented with the aim of shortening the time, effort and energy required to spend services and services, which relieves a lot of trouble for the Egyptian citizen and reflects positively on the individual and society and reduces accidents that result from overcrowding in Cairo. This, in turn, leads to facilitation for the citizen, and then increases his productivity, and thus increases the gross domestic product and the rate of economic growth.

10- Providing a healthy work environment

Reducing overcrowding in Cairo through the movement of many of its residents to the New Capital will contribute to providing a healthy environment and mitigating the severity of the spread of diseases and epidemics, by achieving social divergence, which will reduce the consumption of medicines and eliminate the need to import large quantities of them, and also relieve pressure on hospitals and reduce the budget allocated for spending on aspects of health care.

Third: The most important criticisms to the Administrative Capital and the response to them

The New Administrative Capital project continues to raise successive waves of controversy and criticism in Egypt, and it has recently increased with the intensification of the economic crisis as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war and before that the repercussions of the “Covid-19” pandemic, under the pretext of rationalizing government spending priorities, while the government has confirmed several times that the project will not be financed from The state’s budget and the establishment of the city through the resources of the Autonomous Administrative Capital Company through investments with companies and offering lands and through finding an economic value for the land on which the project is built, and turning it into a source of financing. The project achieves large returns as a result of the sale proceeds from which the state receives 20%, in addition to the installments that the state receives from temporary usufruct projects such as mobile petrol stations.

Investments in the first phase of the project are estimated at 800 billion pounds, according to the official statements of the Administrative Capital Company. The capital project is one of the projects that Cairo was in dire need of, since the era of former President Anwar Sadat, who planned to establish an administrative capital to accommodate the population increase in a city that bears his name on the desert road, but the project was not successful, and the matter was repeated during the era of the former president. Hosni Mubarak, who drew up a plan to move the government ministries square from the center of the country, but it was not implemented. Planning for the establishment of a new capital and all new cities opens new horizons for horizontal urban expansion, and paves the way towards the idea of leaving the valley, in addition to being an effort to sustain urban growth commensurate with population and economic growth.

It is clear from the foregoing that the pivotal elements in the success of the new capital are represented in the following: the optimal choice of location and good planning, the distribution based on scientific studies of the sites of administrative, economic, commercial and entertainment institutions, the application of the principle of central planning and decentralization of management and implementation, in addition to the development of all legal controls To control urbanization to ensure that the New Capital plan does not deviate from the path set for it, and work to provide job opportunities and raise the level of income and wages to see the extent of their impact on attracting residents to it, and the availability of services and meeting the needs of the population.

In conclusion, the completion scale of the Administrative Capital project is unprecedented, and the praises continue for the largest smart city in the Middle East. The project continues to carry many wishes and aspirations, but its success remains dependent on the will and capabilities and the extent to which previous experiences are used in facing challenges and promoting promising attractions.

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The world is currently depending on measuring the level of progress of any society and its interest in human development through two basic criteria, which are the political participation of women, and their empowerment in all fields after depriving them of exercising their political rights in the old decades and excluding them from participation in all fields.

In this context, the current political leadership of Egypt believes in the necessity of integrating women politically and pushing them towards promotion to higher government positions, in line with the democratic transformation that the country is witnessing, and in the interest of achieving comprehensive development.

Challenges facing women’s political empowerment

-Masculine culture: Egyptian women are still captive to a rigid culture that defines roles for men and women and deepens images of discrimination between them.

-Religious discourse: The collective awareness of Egyptians with regard to women’s issues and their political participation is affected by some interpretations and jurisprudential opinions that oppose their work and vary between absolute rejection and partial rejection.

-The high rate of illiteracy among women: The fact that women do not have access to education makes their opportunity to participate in political life very difficult, even impossible.

-The weakness of the role of civil society organizations in empowering women politically, as it is still far from supporting the political role of women, and raising community awareness of the effectiveness of their role in achieving the comprehensive development of society.

 Efforts of the state to support woman political empowerment

1- Constitutional and legislative mechanisms:

A-   Women in constitutional texts:

The 2014 constitution provided real opportunities to eliminate discrimination against women and stimulate their political participation, in a way not seen in previous Egyptian constitutions.

B- Laws supporting the political empowerment of women: Since 2014, the country has witnessed a legal momentum with regard to laws and decisions related to women, the most prominent of which are the following:

-Parliament Law No. 46 of 2014, which stipulates a number of seats for women in the list system (not less than 25% of the total number of seats).

-Law No. 45 of 2014 promulgating the Law Regulating Political Participation.

-Law No. 141 of 2020 of the Senate Law provides for the allocation of no less than 10% of seats for women, out of the total number of seats.

2- Decisions supporting the political empowerment of women:

Laws were issued to empower women in senior management positions, as follows:

– The Central Bank amended the governance rules to form the boards of directors of banks and to stipulate the presence of at least two women on the boards of directors of banks in 2021.

– The General Authority for Financial Supervision also issued Decision No. (48/2022) stipulating that no less than 25% or two women should be represented on the boards of directors of companies and non-bank financial entities.

3- Supporting strategies and programs:

A- The National Strategy for the Empowerment of Egyptian Women 2030:

The strategy is consistent with the 2014 Constitution, Egypt’s Vision 2030 and is integrated with its work axes that seek to build a just society characterized by equal rights and opportunities, and achieve the highest degrees of cohesion, solidarity and integration.

The vision of the Women’s Empowerment Strategy 2030 is based on the fact that by 2030 Egyptian women will become major actors in achieving sustainable development. Achieving this vision requires action through four axes: “political empowerment and strengthening women’s leadership roles, economic empowerment, social empowerment, and protection.”

With regard to the axis of political empowerment, the general objective is to stimulate women’s political participation in all its forms, including parliamentary representation at the national and local levels, and to prevent discrimination against women in assuming leadership positions in executive and judicial institutions, and to prepare women for success in positions.

The strategy identified a number of indicators to measure the impact of the political empowerment axis, including the percentage of females out of the total participants in the elections, and it was 44% in 2014. The strategy aims to reach 50% in 2030.  Percentage of women’s representation in Parliament in 2016 was 15%, and the target in 2030 is to reach 35%. Percentage of female representation in local councils in 2014 was 25%, and the strategy aims in 2030 to reach 35%. Percentage of females in judicial bodies was 0.5% in 2015, and the target in 2030 is to reach 25%. Percentage of females in public positions was 5% in 2015, and the target is 17%. In 2030, Percentage of females in senior management positions was 19% in 2015, and the target in 2030 is to reach 27%.

The strategy identified a number of interventions to reach these percentages, as follows:

-Enhancing the role of women as voters: by completing the issuance of national identification cards for all women in all governorates.

-Increasing the representation of women in elected parliaments and enhancing their performance by identifying women leaders to train them to carry out the tasks of parliamentary representation, and developing programs to support women candidates for the House of Representatives in a way that helps them gain the confidence of voters.

– Enhancing opportunities for women to assume leadership positions in all judicial bodies and setting criteria for selecting candidates for judicial office that avoid discrimination against women and prioritize competence.

-Increasing women’s assumption of leadership positions in the executive agencies of the state through the development of integrated programs for young women leaders to prepare them to assume positions and train them to carry out their tasks.

B- The National Strategy for Human Rights (2021-2026): It was launched in 2021 and contains four axes, and it has a special section on “women’s rights.”

C- The “Women’s Executive Leadership” program to build the capacities of female government employees.

D- The “Women Leading the Future” program, which is a mentoring program for young women to develop their leadership and management skills and build their capacities.

4- Measures supporting women’s political empowerment

A- Expanding the number of community education schools, in which girls constituted the largest percentage of enrollment at 67.31%.

B- Establishing equal opportunity units at the level of government institutions and some private sector institutions, which aim to ensure a safe work environment that prevents discrimination, and to improve the conditions of Egyptian women in all fields.

c- The development of microfinance balances directed to women, as it contributed significantly to supporting women, and females accounted for 62% of the number of beneficiaries.

  Recommendations to activate women’s participation in political work 

The state is making efforts to achieve gender equality and empower women politically, but the process of political empowerment of women still needs to take more measures and decisions to overcome any obstacles:

– Working on reviewing and amending laws related to women’s rights, especially personal status, and those related to increasing the percentage of their representation in state institutions and enhancing their participation in assuming leadership positions in their societies.

-Developing a clear plan by the media in order to modify the stereotyped image of women, and to reveal the reality of their abilities that qualify them to participate in public and political life in particular.

-Increasing the financial support allocated to the process of qualifying and building the capacities of women cadres in all fields

– Empowering women in the economic field and increasing their participation in the production process is a necessity to enable them to participate in politics and occupy a prominent position in political decision-making.

– The necessity of providing accurate statistics and the necessary information on the volume of women’s political participation, and working on developing indicators that measure progress in women’s empowerment at the personal, societal and institutional levels.

– The need for political parties, trade unions and civil organizations to develop policies and mechanisms to ensure fair representation of women.

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