About the book and the writer: the book “the pulse of the imagination“, although the author considered it to be from the category of autobiography, It exceeded this limit a lot, it was as close as possible to the style of Abdullah ibn al-Muqaffa in” Kalila and Damna ” and true to the style of Gramsci in criticism and commitment to community issues. It is a book that exceeded its numerical size by 66 pages, so it was much larger when we reflect on the issues raised by him, which spanned over 13 scenes.

“The pulse of thought ” was published by Atlas publishing and distribution house by the writer Salah Hashem, an author who holds more than 16 books as well as articles and studies, is a professor of development and planning at Fayoum University in Egypt.

The content of the book

It consists of an opening and 13 scenes that express Egyptian life as the writer experienced it in the society in which he grew up: God, fate, life, death, love, friendship, mother, homeland, justice, freedom, knowledge, poverty and corruption. Such titles are almost the same concerns as every person in the Arab environment, not just Egypt. The writer here traveled with his memory, full of love and pain at the same time, throughout all parts of Egypt, so he says, “I was faithful in conveying the thoughts and feelings of those with whom I interacted throughout my past life, just as I was faithful in monitoring their pains that their tongues were unable to express at the time, and I was also keen to express them.” “To convey my observations on governments’ policies regarding their dealings with the issue of poverty and the concerns of the poor, in the hope of changing their policies for the better, for the sake of a strong state based on peace and fair dialogue between the government and the people.”

Thus, he transferred people’s pain and suffering and portrayed all this in a persistent and spontaneous form away from excessive rhetoric and freeing himself as much as possible from the restraint of traditional writing, which necessitates enriching the text with evidence from other studies. Imagination and insight were enough for the writer Salah Hashim to paint the suffering of the poor, fragile groups and even the marginal ones, which he called the oral language in which he grew up.

This book has a range between the language of conscience and reason. When a writer is a part of the suffering of people, of whom he himself was one, and I made him loyal, passionate about championing them, he considers them a part of himself..But soon the language of reason and science comes to mind, and the situation is that the specialist in the field of development and planning sees him from time to time to download these scenes according to their cognitive contexts, enthusiastic about the need to make them in the priorities of reform and development, even he considers that fighting poverty is an absolute priority without which development and the Egyptian leap cannot be achieved, and therefore he says:” the rivers of poverty will not stop flowing unless the state adopts policies that stimulate the poor to work and produce, and the government Justice, and stop the hands of those responsible for corruption”

This book dealt with the concept of Egyptian humanism, humanism as the most important concepts used in the Arab sociological field, as we read in Bhudia’s book labeled “humanism in Islam” and went through a number of misconceptions in our Arab society, such as those addressed by Salah Hashim, especially in the scene of fate and God..“If you want to be a human being, let you have a heart filled with the swings of children, and a mind inhabited by the wisdom of elders…fill your patients with Love, Love is the charity of lovers”..And the “zakat” of the overbearing and the poor ” thus founded the philosophy of love as a savior from death far from all the meanings of the yellow culture that touched even the representation of religion and its teachings, life and death.

This book is an adventure in new thinking in order to convey the concerns of society and the perceptions of its members, in which the writer hinted at what should be. The language of the wise and the sincere Patriot stood out, he is, in the words of Gramsci, that committed intellectual. Perhaps this is the justification for Dr. Salah’s “madness” with love for his homeland: ” my beloved homeland ..I’m not that far from you..Only between us is a raging” sea ” inhabited by snakes..(..) Egypt is a great country.. Do not live inside “dwarfs”..(…) Egypt is stronger and larger than its population.

Do not accept that it is ruled by weak people, or inhabited by bloodsuckers..”This love, as I understood it in the writer’s soul, is that he wants to ward off from Egypt all that is flawed and discouraging its development, especially poverty, which is the main concern of the writer Salah Hashem, especially through his victory for the category of the poor, and he boldly calls for overcoming some of the outdated contents of the heritage, which whenever he reviews it in a sarcastic“..We again need to restructure religious education within the framework of a proper reading of the Koran and the Sunnah. Far from hyperbole And militancy.

We do not need new “victims” of a false religious “understanding”.. “Here he is highlighted by his bold calls for reform, calling for renewal in a highly transformed world in order to achieve the desired and achieve prosperity, because according to him,” the only thing you have to die for is the homeland..If the country lives, all those you love will live in it..And if it burns..The vessel in which you are fused with your loved one burned out.. (…) When God wants us to rise up, he will give us faith in work, and he likes us to pray in the fields, to remember on the Gears of production machines, and officials live the happiness of work in love for the fatherland, and not in building personal glories.. “And such a thing he worked to dismantle in his book called”the new Poor”.

This book is an enrichment for the Arab library because it is the book of the sought-after Arab man away from all the projections of ideology and this is no stranger to the thought of the writer Salah Hashem, whom I had the honor to meet and enjoy his lectures in Tunisia. he tirelessly calls for renewal and renunciation of the yellow culture, the culture of death. Man, society and renewal are a triad component of the writer’s thought as we understood it in the pulse of the mind.

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Dr. Salah Hashem, head of the “Draya” Forum, stated that the political leadership directed the implementation of 6 social protection packages in less than two years (approximately 20 months), from July 2022 until February 2024, stressing that the state seeks to expand the umbrella of social protection and implement effective policies targeting Supporting the most needy and most cared for groups, and alleviating the consequences of implementing the economic reform program on the lowest-income groups, and the negative effects resulting from the global economic crisis and the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, as well as the political unrest in many neighboring countries.

Hashem pointed out that the latest package directed by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on February 8 came to alleviate the effects of the global wave of inflation and high prices on citizens, and provide them with a decent life, which is the largest social package in the history of the Egyptian state, including incentives and increases in wages and pensions, which is scheduled to be applied starting from March 2024 at a cost of 180 billion pounds.

Hashim explained that the fifth package directed by the political leadership in September 2023 cost about 60 billion pounds annually, while the fourth package was in April 2023, where the political leadership was directed to increase support allocations in the budget of the fiscal year 2023/2024 from 358.4 billion pounds to 529.7 billion pounds with an increase of 48.8%, adding that the third package was in March 2023 and benefited about 37 million citizens at a cost of 150 billion pounds annually, and the second was in October 2022 at a cost of 67 billion pounds per year, and the first was July 2022 at a cost of 11 billion pounds.

8 consecutive increases in the minimum wage for workers in 10 years

With regard to the wage file, the chairman of the “Draya” forum stressed that it receives great attention from the state as it strives to achieve a balance between wages and prices to ensure meeting the needs of citizens and improving their standard of living, explaining that the minimum wage of workers in the state witnessed 8 consecutive increases during ten years starting from 2014 until March 2024, which will witness the implementation of a new wage increase came within the last package directed by the political leadership in February, which is scheduled to benefit several segments of Egyptian society.

The head of “Draya ” explained that the minimum wage of employees in the state increased from 1200 pounds in 2014 to 6000 pounds in 2024 with an increase of 500%, and the tax exemption limit was raised from 12 thousand pounds in 2014 to 60 thousand pounds in 2024 with an increase of 500%, in order to reduce the tax burden on low-income people to achieve social justice in distributing the tax burden according to income levels, and in line with the state’s trend to increase the minimum wage to keep pace with economic and social changes.

Hashem pointed out that starting from next March, the wages of state employees and economic bodies will be increased by a minimum of 1,000 to 1,200 pounds depending on the job grade (1,000 pounds for grades six to four, 1,100 pounds for grades three to one, and 1,200 pounds for grades from director general to first undersecretary of the ministry), through the early disbursement of the periodic bonus for civil service law respondents at 10% of the job wage, and 15% of the basic a minimum of EGP 150 and a total cost of EGP 11 billion, and additional incentive disbursement, starting from EGP 500 for the sixth degree, and increasing by EGP 50 for each degree, up to EGP 900 for the degree At a total cost of about 65 billion pounds, which is reflected in raising the minimum wage by 50% to reach 6 thousand pounds.

He also explained that 15 billion pounds will be allocated for additional increases for doctors,nurses,teachers and faculty members at universities, including 8.1 billion pounds to approve an additional increase in the wages of teachers in pre-university education, ranging from 325 pounds to 475 pounds, and 1.6 billion pounds to approve an additional increase for faculty members and their assistants at universities, institutes and research centers, and 4.5 billion pounds to approve an additional increase for members of medical professions and nursing bodies ranging from 250 to 300 pounds in risk allowance for medical professions, and an increase up to up to 100% in the overnight and overnight allowance.

11 consecutive pension increases in 10 years

Regarding the pension system, the head of “Draya” confirmed that it witnessed great development during the last ten years, as the pension map was characterized by ramifications and diversity and included the insurance pension based on contributions, the social security pension, the irregular employment pension, exceptional pensions, and the private sector pension, in addition to a solidarity pension. Karama explained that, following the presidential directive for the recent increase, pensions have witnessed 11 consecutive increases from 2014 until March 2024, which reflects the unprecedented interest of the political leadership in improving the economic and social conditions of pensioners.

Increasing the number of pension beneficiaries to 13 million

The research paper also showed that the number of pension beneficiaries witnessed a steady increase during the period from 2014 to 2024, as follows:

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One of these conspiracies is carried out by the Afrocentric movement, which seeks to promote the idea that the ancient Egyptians were black Africans, in order to weaken the Egyptian identity and provoke divisions among Egyptians.

In this context, the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Draya” issues a research paper dealing with the dimensions and principles of the “Afrocentric” movement, and seeks to clarify and refute the statements of the movement, as well as future scenarios on the African identity of Egypt.

First: The dimensions of the Afrocentric movement

Recently, the offensive tone against the ancient Egyptian civilization has escalated, led by Afrocentric, which has striven to falsify the ancient Egyptian civilization and prove that the Egyptians usurped the land of Kemet. No ancient civilization has been spared from attempts at theft and forgery, including the ancient Egyptian civilization, which is witnessing a fierce attack by black people, who belong to what is known as (Afrocentrism) in an attempt to prove their right to their ancestors, the Pharaohs, and by extension, their antiquities and glories.

Egyptian academics specializing in archaeology and Anthropology have rejected the ideas put forward about the Negro origin of ancient Egypt, stressing that modern Egypt is a mixture of several nationalities and civilizations, including Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Romans and others. Egyptian literature confirms that the ancient Egyptians followed the course of the Nile and its sources, established kingdoms in Nubia, and their numerous trips for which they organized land and Nile communication routes with Africa.

. In general, “Afrocentric” is a global movement centered around the racial intolerance of black people. It initially appeared under the pretext of uplifting African culture and protecting it from falsification, in the belief of its followers that there are those who tampered with the narrative of global history, which resulted in their marginalization. Indeed, they began to search for any connection linking them to ancient civilizations and attribute every human achievement in Africa to those of African descent and who have dark skin only. Currently, one of their most important goals is to eliminate the white race in Africa, especially the Amazighs, Arabic speakers, and Afrikaans (Europeans in South Africa).

The Afro-centric vision of the Pharaonic civilization boils down to their belief that the Kings Of Kemet (ancient Egypt) and the then Egyptian people descended from African origins specifically “Kush”. For example, they claim that the Kings and Queens of the Pharaohs with African features and black skin, such as Queen Te, wife of Amenhotep III in the family of١٨, Akhetaten, Nefertiti, Tutankhamun, King Senusret and others.

They also believe that the current Egyptians have nothing to do with the ancient Egyptians, because the ancient Egyptians migrated to the South gradually after the Arabs entered Egypt and before them the Romans, according to their vision. According to Afrocentrism, those who currently belong to Egypt are a mixture of many nationalities that have nothing to do with the ancient Egyptian race, and even describe the current population as “Arabs who invaded and settled Egypt”.

Afrocentrk members also claim that Egyptologists are currently painting tombs white in order to falsify history, as well as their claim that Egyptologists break the noses of pharaonic statues to hide the features of the African nose, and this is all nonsense. The matter even reached the judicial arena, as members of the campaign filed cases against Egypt to prevent it from excavating Antiquities, claiming that it belonged to them.

It should be noted that since the Afrocentric members began to spread their vision in Europe and America, a state of hostility towards everything that is Egyptian has formed because they have come to see it as a “gas for their motherland”, So racism against Egyptians began to appear, as well as cases of assault on them

Second: the principles of the work of Afrocentric organizations

The Afrocentric movement is an intellectual and political movement that aims to re-evaluate and evaluate the African identity and contributions to the history of mankind.this movement is based on a criticism of the Western view that disparages African civilizations and participates in a conspiracy to hide their role in human development.

The Afrocentric movement seeks to highlight African history, culture, science, arts, religion, ethics and politics as an integral part of human heritage, and to promote unity and solidarity between African peoples and Africans in the diaspora.

The origins of the Afrocentric movement date back to the beginning of the twentieth century, when a number of African-American intellectuals and activists in America and Europe began to talk about the importance of African history and culture, the mutual influences between Africa and the rest of the world.. Among such intellectuals, mention can be made of Marcus Garvey, the founder of the movement “return to Africa”, Wu.E.B. Du Bois, founder of the “pan-African Association”, George gams, author of” the history of the pillage”, and two people Diop, author of”the cultural unity of Africa”.

The Afrocentric movement experienced a great boom, in the Sixties and seventies of the last century, with the emergence of liberation movements in Africa and the joining of a group of intellectuals and academics in Europe and America.. Among these intellectuals, mention can be made of Maulavi Keti Asante, founder of the”Institute of Afrocentric studies”, and shkalan gehez, author of”African roots”.

The Afrocentric movement is based on a set of principles and concepts that define its vision and goals.. Among these principles, it is possible to mention:

Afrocentrism is an intellectual and emotional attitude that puts Africa and the African at the center of attention and appreciation, and looks at the world from an African perspective, and the African is an actor and not a recipient in history and culture.

Afrosala is a concept that refers to the connection and belonging between Africans and Africans in the diaspora, solidarity and cooperation between them in the face of common challenges, and the pursuit of unity and integration between them at the political, economic and cultural levels.
Afro-image: it is a concept that refers to the self-image of the African and Africans in the diaspora, which expresses an African identity, dignity, confidence and creativity, and is based on African history, culture, science, arts, religion and ethics.

Afro-demand: is a concept that refers to the claims and rights advocated by Africans and Africans in the diaspora, which include: independence and sovereignty over their land, compensation for historical injustices suffered, recognition of their role in human history, access to fair opportunities in education, health, work and wealth.
Afrocentrism or Afrocentric: it is also called the African-centric movement, and was founded by the African-American activist “Molefi Asante” in the eighties according to the British Encyclopedia Britannica . The movement seeks to “highlight the identity and contributions of African cultures to world history”. It is active in the United States, in some European countries and among groups of African descent. Among the theories promoted by supporters of the movement is “that the origin of the Egyptian civilization is only African”

Third: the statements of the movement and its refutation

According to Afrocentrism, African history and culture began in ancient Egypt, which was the cradle of world civilization until its ideas and technologies were stolen and its track record of achievements was obscured by Europeans. They argue that the renewed interest in this culture can remind African-Americans that their own culture, devalued by Americans of European descent, has an ancient and ancient heritage. “There is absolutely no evidence for these claims,” they base their claims on Kush’s rule of Egypt in the late era, in the Twenty-Fifth Dynasty, but he ruled for a very short time and therefore there is no evidence that the origin of the Egyptians is a definitive black element.

Egyptian academics specializing in archaeology and Anthropology have rejected the ideas put forward about the Negro origin of ancient Egypt, stressing that modern Egypt is a mixture of several nationalities and civilizations, including Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Romans and others.

In general, it can be said that “Afrocentric” is a movement that is engaged in a confrontation on two fronts, the first with traditional Western thought, which it accuses of stealing “ancient Egyptian civilization,” and the second with Egypt, which attributed all of its Pharaonic civilization to blacks, which called on some – especially within Egypt – to Warning against its ideas, in exchange for initiatives that stress that Egyptian interests necessarily require searching for a new beginning with Africans that begins with changing the negative perceptions between the two parties.

Fourth: the economic effects on Egypt

The economic component plays a challenge to Egypt’s African identity. There are economic factors that have led to the deepening of the gap in Egypt’s African identity, including the emergence of oil in the Arab Gulf countries, where oil came in the Arab countries to increase exchange, migration, tourism and interaction between Egypt and the Arab world before and more than ever before, oil has brought the Arabian Peninsula out of isolation imposed on it by the desert and poverty.

At the same time, Egyptian labor, which in turn was the largest factor in the urbanization and development of the entire Arabian Peninsula, contributed to the increasing Arab rapprochement. For the first time, human migration came out of Egypt, and for the first time, tourism came out of the Arabian Peninsula, and Egypt received the largest stream of Arab summer tourism, both from the Gulf countries, especially from Saudi Arabia. While African tourists represented only about 3 % of the total tourists to Egypt, the Egyptian tourist to South Africa ranked 32nd out of a total of 35 countries.

On the other hand, the volume and weight of temporary or working Egyptian migration in Arab countries is greater, as the trend towards migration entails reducing the population pressure in Egypt in the fifties in support of the Arab trend as well as cash transfers from migrants.

Egypt continued to import foreign trade and was hit by contraction and decline as a result of the emergence of African markets open to competition and the absence of Egyptian investments in natural resources and raw materials.

Fifth: future scenarios on the African identity of Egypt

Linear directional scenario: the continuation of the state of Egypt’s lack of awareness of African identity is assumed based on the presumption of the continuation of the variables that control the Egyptian perception of African identity, the most important of these variables, which means that Egyptians do not psychologically accept association with Negroes.

Optimistic reform scenario: this scenario focuses on changes and reforms in the Egyptians ‘ perception of African identity, in the sense of a new arrangement in the direction of the Egyptian perception of African identity in order to improve the course of Egyptian-African relations. In addition, there will be a rapprochement between the Arab and African identities and this situation will be stabilized, in the sense of a connecting line between Africa and the Arabs through the revival of Arab-African relations. In other words, there is no conflict and struggle between multiple circles of affiliation, as the Egyptian is pharaonic, Arab, African, Islamic and Middle Eastern, all of which are mutually exclusive circles of affiliation, and this depends on the ability of the political leadership in Egypt to manage this situation.

The pessimistic transformation scenario means that the African identity of Egypt will be exposed to many risks, threats and challenges, resulting in crises in Egyptian-African relations.

Sixth: proposed ways in the light of the Africa Development Plan

The ability to implement and achieve the success of Agenda 2063 requires a number of critical enablers of transformation in Africa and are prerequisites for success, these are the following:

1-continuous mobilization of the African people and achieving effective communication and awareness, sustainable and inclusive social dialogue on Agenda 2063.

2-mobilizing African resources to finance and accelerate the transformation process, achieve peace and security, develop infrastructure, democratic governance and strengthen continental institutions.

3-building a vision, responsible and accountable leadership and democratic development institutions through mechanisms capable of Planning, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation at all levels.

4-activating the planning capacities for African Development, rebuilding public services in the functional and professional fields and strengthening regional and continental institutions.

5-working to change attitudes and mentalities to promote African values through self-reliance, solidarity, hard and collective work, and building on African successes and best practices to form the African model of transformation and development.

The authors of the agenda believe that it differs from previous initiatives, and this is due to: the involvement of African citizens, civil society institutions, regional groupings and academic institutions, that is, following a bottom-up approach, there were intensive consultations with African citizens before the agenda was set; this enhances the goals and steps of the implementation of the initiative and its outputs, and promote the development of an African Agenda for socio-economic transformation, this work is not the work of bureaucrats, but an agenda driven by the voices of African peoples reflecting to the Africa they want.

There are a number of factors for the success of the effective implementation of this agenda, the most prominent of which are the following:

1-political commitment by the leaders of African countries, and effective strategic planning to ensure coordination between national, regional and continental plans in the short, medium and long term.

2-achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the countries of the continent.

3-developing the development capacity of countries, strengthening the administrative apparatus and existing institutions in the state, and including the participation of citizens within the framework of this agenda with a focus on the empowerment of women and youth.

4-implementing deep and effective reforms that include conflict resolution, reducing the accumulated debts of the countries of the continent, establishing strong infrastructure for development, removing the risk of famines that hit the continent, empowering young people in order to form a conscious future leadership of the African continent

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It is not possible to erase history, deny the existence of the Palestinian people, and hide their identity, whose roots extend back centuries. The occupation has not been able in any country throughout history to eliminate its indigenous peoples, regardless of the efforts at ethnic cleansing or the attempt to change the demographics of the population.

In this context, the Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Draya” issues a report that provides an overview of the history of the Palestinian state, and the area of land that remained for the Palestinians of their land after the Nakba of 1948, in addition to the demographics of its people.

First: a historical overview of the Palestinian state

Many Arab tribes and peoples migrated from the Arabian Peninsula to Palestine, the most famous of which are: the Canaanites, the Amorites, and the Arameans. These peoples established important civilizations, especially the Canaanites who established large cities in Palestine and named them by their names, and they remain a legacy until now.

Palestine was invaded by various ethnic groups that managed to control it for a while, but they were eventually expelled and the land returned to its original inhabitants. The most famous of these groups are the Hyksos (1750-1500 BC.M.), and the Persians (520 BC.M.), and the Greeks led by Alexander (332 BC.Ad), and the Romans in the first century AD. In 636 AD, the Muslim armies conquered Palestine and became part of the Islamic State, and Palestine witnessed prosperity in the Arab era despite the Crusades it went through. It also remained active in shaping the events of Arab history even during the four-century Ottoman rule.

In the late nineteenth century, the process of Jewish settlement in Palestine began during the period of Ottoman rule, and the Zionist movement used all means to encourage Jewish immigration to Israel. Some Jews entered as merchants and businessmen, while others took advantage of being allowed to visit the holy places to infiltrate Palestine and stay there. Jewish settlement in Palestine began in 1859.

In the midst of World War I, the Sykes-Picot Agreement was signed, which stipulated that Palestine would become under the British Mandate. In 1917, British Foreign Secretary Arthur James Balfour issued a statement stipulating the establishment of a national homeland for the Jews in Palestine, which is known as the Balfour Declaration. Declaration, Britain worked to provide facilities and support for waves of Jewish immigration to Palestine and to increase the number of Jewish settlements there.

The Palestinian people began to confront the Zionist and British movements through armed resistance and demonstrations; the revolution of 1921, the Buraq revolution of 1929, and the revolution of 1936, which was renewed in 1937 and lasted until 1939. At the same time, Britain continued to confiscate land and Judaize it, while the UN addressed the Palestinian issue, issuing a partition resolution in November 1947, which provides for the creation of two independent Arab and Jewish states.

Events followed and the resistance intensified until the first Arab – Israeli war on May 15, 1948, which flared up after Britain officially withdrew from Palestine, and its results were the establishment of the state of Israel and its occupation of the bulk of Palestine, in addition to the displacement of most of the Palestinian people from their cities and villages under the pressure of Zionist groups that committed massacres against the Palestinian people to force them to leave their land. The Palestinian Arab people lived as refugees in camps scattered in neighboring countries.

Following the 1948 war, nothing remained of Palestine except the West Bank, which was subject to Jordanian administration, and the Gaza Strip, which was subject to Egyptian administration until 1956. The armed Palestinian revolution was launched in 1965, led by the Palestinian National Liberation Movement, Fatah, with the aim of liberating Palestine, after the Israeli aggression in 1967. Israel took control of all Palestinian territory after it occupied the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and tens of thousands of Palestinian people were displaced outside their homeland once again.

Second: the area of historical Palestine and the rest of the land

The total area of historical Palestine is 27.009 square kilometers, while the area of the proposed state of Palestine (as stated in UN Resolution 181, which is known as the partition resolution in 1551948) on the territories occupied in 1967 (the West Bank and the Gaza Strip) is 6209 square kilometers and represents 22.95% of the area of historical Palestine as follows:

1-the area of the West Bank is 5844 kilometers, constituting 21.6% of the total area of the land of historical Palestine.

2-the area of the Gaza Strip is 365 square kilometers, and it constitutes 1.35% of the total area of the land of historical Palestine.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics has revealed that the Israeli occupation controls more than 85% of the total land area in historical Palestine (the West Bank, Gaza and Israel).

After the political and geographical reality imposed by the occupying power, the actual remaining area for Palestinians of the total area of the West Bank is less than 54% of the area of the West Bank, after the Israeli occupation seized 46% of the area through settlement, the wall and occupation practices on the ground.

According to a statement by the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics, Israel uses about 76% of the area classified C of the West Bank under its control. Therefore, the remaining land for the Palestinians is not enough to establish a Palestinian state, and poses a threat to the Palestinian demography.

Third: Demographics of the Palestinian people

Demography is known as the science of population that is concerned with studying population characteristics such as size, distribution, density, composition, ethnicities, growth components (birth, mortality, migration), income level, etc.

Throughout history, the Palestinian state has witnessed many political, economic and social changes, which have caused profound demographic changes among the Palestinian people, affecting demographics, education, health, and the economy. According to the latest data released in 2023, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics showed a number of indicators related to the Palestinian population, the most prominent of which are as follows:

(A) population indicators:

1-14.5 million Palestinians in historical Palestine and the diaspora :

The number of Palestinians in mid-2023 reached about 14.5 million Palestinians in the world, including 5.5 million Palestinians in the state of Palestine, or 38% of the total number of Palestinians in the world.

The data of the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics show that the number of Palestinians residing within the 48 territories is about 1.7 million individuals, residents in Arab countries is about 6.5 million individuals, and residents in foreign countries are about 800 thousand individuals.

Figure 1 shows the number of Palestinians in the world by their place of residence:

The Palestinians in the State of Palestine are distributed as 3.25 million people in the West Bank (about 60%), including 1.65 million males and 1.60 million females, while the population of the Gaza Strip is estimated at about 2.23 million people (about 40%), including 1.13 million males and 1.10 million. One million females.

2- The Palestinian society is young and more than a third of its population is under 15 years of age:

Figure No. (2) shows the average family size in Palestine by region during the years 2007 and 2022

4-the population growth rate in 2023 in the state of Palestine reached 2.4%, with 2.1% in the West Bank and 2.7% in the Gaza Strip.

5-the crude birth rate in 2023 was about 28.8 births per 1000 of the population, 26.6 births in the West Bank and 32.0 births in the Gaza Strip. The crude mortality rate in 2023 in Palestine was 3.7 deaths per 1000 residents, 3.7 in the West Bank and 3.4 in the Gaza Strip.

6-the life expectancy of survival at birth for 2022 was about 74.3 years, 73.2 years for males and 75.4 years for females.

7-the percentage of the elderly (60 years and over) reached about 5.7% of the total population of Palestine, 6.3% in the West Bank, and 4.8% in the Gaza Strip.

The percentage of individuals in the age group (0-14 years) is estimated at 37% of the total population in Palestine in 2023, 35% in the West Bank and 40% in the Gaza Strip. The percentage of individuals aged (65 years and over) reached 4% in Palestine, 4% in the West Bank and 3% in the Gaza Strip.

B- Indicators of housing conditions and services:

1- About 81% of families in Palestine live in homes owned by a family member residing there. At the regional level, this percentage is distributed at 87% in the West Bank and 70% in the Gaza Strip in 2022.
2-The percentage of families who live in rented housing in Palestine reached 7% (5% in the West Bank, compared to 10% in the Gaza Strip), while the percentage of Palestinian families who live in housing without compensation or in exchange for work is 12% (7% in the West Bank). Western, compared to 20% in the Gaza Strip), during the year 2022.

3- More than half of the families in Palestine live in apartments:

The total number of families in Palestine who live in apartments reached about 54%, while 43% of families live in dwellings classified as a house, less than half a percent of families live in a villa, and 3% of families live in other dwellings such as a separate room or a tent. , or Barakia, or another in 2022.

Figure No. (3) shows the relative distribution of families in Palestine by type of housing

4-on average, 1.5 people live per room in Palestinian housing

The average housing density (number of persons per room) in Palestine was 1.5 persons/ room in 2022 (by 1.5 persons/ room in urban and rural areas, compared to 1.8 persons/ room in the camps), while the average housing density at the regional level was 1.4 persons/ room in the West Bank, compared to 1.7 persons/ room in the Gaza Strip.

5-about 5% of West Bank families live in overcrowded housing compared to 9% in the Gaza Strip:

6% of families in Palestine Live in high-density housing units (3 or more people per room) (5% in the West Bank, compared to 9% in the Gaza Strip), and at the level of the type of community, it is 6% in urban and rural areas and will increase to 9% in the camps in 2022.

It should also be noted that the average number of rooms in the dwelling reached 3.5 rooms in 2022 in Palestine, and the average number of rooms in the dwelling reached 3.5 rooms in urban and 3.6 rooms in rural compared to 3.2 rooms in the camps, and the average number of rooms in the dwelling in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip reached 3.5 rooms during the year 2022.

6- Only 4% of Gaza residents have access to safely managed, pollution-free water:

The data indicate that about 40% of the population in Palestine has access to safely managed and pollution-free water (free of E-Coli bacteria, 66% in the West Bank, compared to 4% in the Gaza Strip), and this percentage by type of community reached 36% in urban and 67% in rural, and this percentage decreased to 25% of the population in the camps in 2020

C-work indicators:

1-the labor force participation rate (for individuals 15 years and older) was 43.4%, where the female participation rate was 19% compared to 17.2% in 2021, and the male 71% compared to 69% in 2021.

2-the unemployment rate in Palestine in 2022 reached about 24.4%, and there is still a large disparity in the unemployment rate among participants in the labor force for individuals from 15 years and more between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, where this rate reached 45.3% in the Gaza Strip, compared to 13.1% in the West Bank.

At the gender level, the unemployment rate for males in Palestine reached 20% compared to 40% for females in 2023. The unemployment rate reached 48% among young people (19-29 years old) with an average diploma and above, with 61% for females compared to 34% for males.

3-Approximately 40% of wage-employed workers in the private sector receive a monthly wage less than the minimum wage of (1,880 shekels), where the percentage reached about 38% for men, compared to 50% for women, and approximately 40% of female wage-employees in the private sector work. Without an employment contract, 44% receive a contribution to financing retirement/end-of-service benefits. In contrast, 46% of female wage employees in the private sector receive paid maternity leave.

D- Education indicators

1-The illiteracy rate among individuals aged 15 years and over in Palestine reached 2.2%, and this rate varied greatly between males and females. It reached 1.1% among males, while it reached 3.3% among females.

2- Females outperform males in completion rates for the lower and higher secondary levels, as these percentages reached 97% and 78%, respectively, while the percentages among males reached 90% and 53%, respectively.

3- The percentage of female students enrolled in Palestinian higher education institutions reached 62% of the total students enrolled in higher education institutions for the academic year 2021/2022, of whom about 10% are enrolled in the communications and information technology major.

4-The number of schools, according to the Palestinian Census data in 2021, was about 3,107 schools, with a number of teachers amounting to 59 thousand teachers annually and a number of students amounting to 1,338,353 annually.

E-health indicators:

1-the number of hospitals in 2021 reached about 89 hospitals, distributed among 54 hospitals in the West Bank, and 35 in the Gaza Strip.

2-the number of health centers in 2021 reached about 765, 64% of these centers are affiliated with the Palestinian Ministry of health, compared to 25% affiliated with non-governmental organizations, 9% affiliated with the relief agency and 2% affiliated with military services.

3-the number of doctors was 2.7 doctors per 1000 inhabitants, and the number of beds was 1.5 per 1000 inhabitants

F- Information Society Indicators:

1- In 2022, about 92% of families in Palestine reported that they or one of their members has access to internet service at home, 93% in the West Bank, and 92% in the Gaza Strip.

2-The percentage of individuals aged 10 years and over who used the Internet from anywhere was 89% in Palestine, 92% in the West Bank and 83% in the Gaza Strip, while the percentage was 89% among males and 88% among females.

3- About 79% of individuals (10 years and older) in Palestine own a mobile phone, 86% in the West Bank and 69% in the Gaza Strip. There is a clear gap in ownership of a mobile phone between males and females, as the percentage reached 83% for males and 76% for females. In 2022.

The post The Palestinian Issue Between Land and Demography appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

In this context, the research paper aims to analyze the regional and international variables to which the Egyptian economy is exposed, clarify the economic effects of these variables on it, as well as shed light on the policies and procedures that the Egyptian economy can follow. Finally, the research paper presents several proposed solutions to enhance the performance of the economy and support its ability to withstand external shocks.

The most important solutions proposed by the paper to enhance the performance of the Egyptian economy were as follows:
-Increase the volume of national projects with a dollar yield and temporarily stop financing projects that need dollar spending.

-Expanding support to the Egyptian industrial sector by paying attention to the strategy of deepening local manufacturing.

-The current boycott campaigns are a golden opportunity for local products to increase their market space through increasing demand for local products.

-The government should focus on increasing the competitiveness and quality of exports and reducing the obstacles facing exporters as exports are a means of obtaining foreign exchange.

-Raising the interest rate will lead to a decline in investment, contraction of economic activity and increasing unemployment.

-Easing the restrictions on obtaining foreign exchange, which the private sector needs to obtain the raw materials necessary for production.

First: Analysis of the regional and international changes to which the Egyptian economy is exposed

The Egyptian economy was subjected to successive shocks (from the corona pandemic to the war in Ukraine). Where it influenced the gains of the economic reform plan, which began since 2016. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has led to significant repercussions on the Egyptian economy as it struggles to recover from the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, as high inflation rates, declining wheat imports and dwindling tourist flow come on top of the negative consequences of this war. Thus, the risk of food insecurity has increased due to the fact that Egypt’s food imports are linked to these two countries.

Egypt sought a new loan from the International Monetary Fund in December 2022 in order to fill part of the financing gap.

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved a 46-month agreement with Egypt under the Extended Fund Facility worth approximately US$3 billion. The program includes a comprehensive package of policies aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and achieving comprehensive growth led by the private sector. The policy package includes a permanent shift to a flexible exchange rate system, a monetary policy aimed at gradually reducing inflation, fiscal consolidation to ensure a decline in the path of public debt while strengthening social safety nets to protect vulnerable groups, and broad structural reforms.

The “Extended Fund Facility” is expected to encourage the availability of more funding for Egypt from its international and regional partners. Despite the promising goals of the IMF loan, however, the transition to a flexible exchange rate policy led to a significant devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which negatively affected the purchasing power of Egyptians and the high import bill. Therefore, the Egyptian government has turned to increasing support for the poorest groups.

It should be noted that China is the second largest economy in the world after the United States, according to gross domestic product, and the world’s number one trading power, as well as being one of the most important engines of global economic growth, and its currency has become one of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies, starting in October 2016. China’s national income is more than 10.4 trillion dollars, compared to 17.4 trillion dollars for the United States of America. China has a purchasing power equivalent to more than 15 trillion dollars, an estimated 3.7 trillion dollars in hard currency and gold reserves, a third of which is held in US Treasury bonds. China is seeking to reduce its dependence on the dollar, after the Chinese currency covers about 10% of World Trade. Since 2015, China’s arms exports to Africa have doubled, surpassing the US share and accounting for 17% of the African market.

China and the United States are locked in an escalating trade war that has seen rounds of tariffs imposed on each other’s imports, as well as increasingly strained relations due to disagreements over issues such as arms sales and military activity in the South China Sea.

Regarding the trade balance between China and the United States, it tends in favor of Beijing, whose trade surplus exceeded $375 billion in its exchanges with Washington in 2021, noting that the volume of trade exchange between the two countries exceeded $600 billion in 2020, and US exports to China in 2021 amounted to about $116.2 billion, while China’s exports to the United States amounted to about $492 billion in the same year. The United States imports aluminum, steel, electronics, clothing, and machinery from China, while China is the largest importer of soybeans from the United States.

Second: The economic impacts of current international and regional changes on Egypt

The instability and turmoil in the monetary policy of major countries have prompted an exodus of indirect investments in emerging markets, including Egypt, where about 20 billion dollars have flowed out since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis due to interest rate hikes in developed countries, which led to a sharp drop in the exchange rates of the local currency accompanied by record inflation levels as a result of the increase in the cost of imports, but the positive economic growth achieved over the past three years, on the one hand, as well as reforms in the balance of trade, especially the balance of energy, on the other, have pushed the Egyptian economy somewhat away from the severity of the external shock, which will performed Due to high energy and food prices, which undermined economic growth.

-Opportunities – Europe’s increasing dependence on Russian energy essentially pushes European governments to increase their investment portfolio with Egypt in the field of energy, especially natural gas in the short term and electricity in the medium and long term.

-The increasing dependence over the last two decades on factories in China and Southeast Asia has prompted major companies in the world, especially European and American companies, to reconsider the distribution of their factories and production lines around the world, which makes the reforms that Egypt implemented in infrastructure an opportunity to attract the largest possible amount of these investments, as well as About the availability and sustainability of energy on the one hand, and the low cost of labor on the other hand.

Challenges:

-Slowing economic growth:

The slowdown in global economic growth may lead to a recession that includes emerging economies, which may lead to lowering expectations for economic growth. According to the expectations of international institutions, the Egyptian economy is growing at a rate of 5.6% for the current year, amid expectations of a slowdown to reach 4.6% for next year.

-Increase in the general level of prices:

The rise in the general level of prices globally led to a further rise in prices at the local level, which in turn leads to an increase in the state’s obligations towards the most vulnerable groups, and increases the size of the general budget, which requires more borrowing, as the total budget deficit reached about 6.2%. As a percentage of GDP, the following figure indicates the relative distribution of public expenditures in the current budget 2022/2023.

High external public debt:

Egypt’s external public debt reached about $145.5 billion at the end of December from the level of $137.4 billion at the end of last September, an increase of about 5.8%, which may hinder the volume of spending allocated to investments, as interest payments amounted to about 45% of total revenues and about 33%. % of total public expenditures and the equivalent of 8% of the gross domestic product for the current fiscal year. The following figure shows the development of both interest payments on the one hand and the current and total deficit on the other hand.

Challenges of foreign trade:

The effects of the slowdown in international trade appear in two directions. The first is an increase in the import bill as a result of the rise in the price of oil, and about 20 billion pounds to move the exchange rate. The second trend is a decrease in the expected returns from Suez Canal revenues, as a result of the decline in the growth rate of global trade. It is expected that trade growth will decline. The global rate will reach 4.9% in 2023 compared to the current year’s estimated 6.7%, and the rise in interest rates by 100 basis points will contribute to increasing the general budget deficit by about 28 billion pounds.

Third: Policies and procedures that the Egyptian economy can follow

Egypt should resort to a set of policies and procedures to confront international and regional changes at the local level as follows:-

1-to make more efforts to protect the production and marketing activities necessary to meet local and global demand, and that supply chains continue to operate, which means protecting the existing infrastructure for processing crops, livestock and food, and other logistics systems.

2-finding new and more diverse food suppliers, relying on the existing stocks of food commodities and diversifying local production to ensure that people get healthy dietary patterns.

3-expanding the scope of social safety nets to protect the vulnerable.many will be pushed into the cycle of poverty and hunger by the ongoing conflict, which requires the provision of appropriate and targeted social protection programs.

4-avoiding ad hoc policy responses.reducing import tariffs or using export restrictions would help to address food security challenges.

5-enhancing transparency in markets and encouraging dialogue: ensuring greater transparency and information on the state of global markets will help the government and investors to make informed decisions in light of the fluctuations in the agricultural commodity markets.

Fourth:  proposed solutions to enhance the performance of the Egyptian economy and support its ability to face external shocks:

-Increase the volume of national projects with a dollar yield and temporarily stop financing projects that need dollar spending. Sources of dollar liquidity should be diversified more quickly and focus on sources that do not require large infrastructure.
– Expanding support to the Egyptian industrial sector by paying attention to the strategy of deepening local manufacturing. It is necessary to provide alternatives to imports in the Egyptian market to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.

-Although the devaluation of the currency makes imports more expensive, it makes exports cheaper and increases global demand for them. But the government should take steps to increase the competitiveness and quality of exports, and reduce the obstacles facing exporters as exports are a means of obtaining foreign exchange. There should be more subsidies to support small and medium-sized enterprises in order to help them produce for export.

– -Raising the interest rate by the central bank is not the only solution to curb inflation, especially since inflation is not caused by an increase in demand, but by rising costs and shocks to global supply chains. On the contrary, raising the interest rate will lead to a decline in investment, contraction of economic activity and increasing unemployment.

– -Easing the restrictions on obtaining foreign exchange, which the private sector needs to obtain the raw materials necessary for production. In addition, the private sector is now facing a high cost of financing due to the tightening of monetary policy.

-Reducing the government’s crowding out of the private sector in obtaining local credit, as the bulk of local credit is allocated to the government and the public business sector and represents about 60% of local credit

The post The Egyptian Economy in light of International and Regional Changes: Scenarios and Solutions appeared first on المنتدي الاستراتيجي للسياسات العامة و دراسات التنمية.

Since January 2011, the Egyptian economy has been subjected to many pressures and strong shocks with the devaluation of the pound and the decline of its purchasing power, which negatively affected citizens and their ability to provide their basic needs, so the state had to intervene to relieve that suffering on the shoulders of individuals, especially low-income, and this has been evident since 2014 as the political leadership sought to raise the minimum wage.

In this context, the Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Draya” issues a report that sheds light on the movement of the minimum wage in Egypt during the period from 2014 to 2023, and its allocations in the state’s general budget, in addition to highlighting the relationship between rising wages, inflation, purchasing power, and the obstacles that It faces the wage system and ways to overcome it, through the following axes:

First: The reality of the workforce in Egypt.

Second: The movement of the minimum wage during nine years from 2014 to 2023.

Third: The cost of increasing the minimum wage from the state’s general budget.

Fourth: The relationship between rising wages, inflation, and purchasing power.

Fifth: Obstacles facing the wage system in Egypt.

Sixth: Proposed solutions and recommendations to address these problems.

Results of the research paper:

– The labor force in the first quarter of 2023 registered about 30.6 million individuals, compared to 27.6 individuals in the same quarter of 2014, an increase of 10.9%.

– The number of employees increased and amounted to about 28.4 million individuals in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 23.9 million individuals in the same quarter in 2014, an increase of 18.8%.

– The number of unemployed decreased by 40.5%, reaching 2.2 million individuals in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 3.7 million individuals in the first quarter of 2014.

– The minimum wage of employees in the country has witnessed 7 consecutive increases since 2014 until 2023, increasing from 1200 pounds in 2014 to 4000 pounds in 2023 with an increase of 233%.

– Raising the tax exemption limit from 12 thousand pounds in 2014 to 45 thousand pounds in 2023, an increase of 275%, in order to reduce the tax burden on low-income people.

– The approval of two exceptional grants “cost of living allowance ” for the first time within one year by the decision of the president of the Republic for employees of the administrative apparatus of the state, economic bodies and the business sector, where the first grant was worth 300 pounds the first of November 2022, and the second of 300 pounds the first of October 2023 .

– The wages of private sector workers have witnessed successive increases, as the minimum wage for private sector workers increased from 2,400 pounds in January 2022, to 2,700 pounds in January 2023, then to 3,000 pounds in July 2023, and then 3,500 starting from 2024.

– Approval of an annual periodic bonus for private sector employees of at least 3% of the insurance contribution fee, with a minimum of 200 pounds, to be applied from January 2024.

– Wage allocations and compensation of employees in the state budget increased from 207.2 billion pounds in 2014 to reach 470 billion pounds in 2023 at an increase rate of about 127%.

– The increase in inflation rates significantly during the period from 2014 to 2023 represents a major challenge that may prevent the achievement of the state’s efforts to ensure a minimum level of well – being of citizens.

First: The reality of the workforce in Egypt

The labor force in the first quarter of 2023 registered about 30.6 million people, compared to 27.6 million in the same quarter of 2014, with an increase of 10.9%, as the number of employed increased and reached about 28.4 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 23.9 million individuals in the same quarter of 2014, with an increase of 18.8%, while the number of unemployed decreased by 40.5%, reaching 2.2 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 3.7 million in the first quarter of 2014, according to the latest report issued by the cabinet of ministers.

It should be noted that the unemployment rate decreased by 6.3%, where it was recorded about 7.1% in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 13.4% during the same quarter of 2014

With regard to the distribution of workers according to the most important economic activities, agricultural and fishing activity included 18.1% of the labor force, with 5.1 million workers in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 26.9%, with 6.4 million workers in the same quarter of 2014, and wholesale and retail activity employed about 14.6% of the labor force, with 4.2 million employees in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 11.3%, with 2.6 million employees, in the same quarter of 2014.

Second: Wage movement over nine years

1) Wages of workers in the state’s administrative apparatus:

The minimum wage for workers in the country witnessed 7 consecutive increases from 2014 until 2023, with the minimum wage increasing as follows:

-1,200 pounds in 2014, compared to 700 pounds in 2011, an increase of 500 pounds.
-2000 pounds in 2019, an increase of 800 pounds.
-2,400 pounds in 2021, an increase of 400 pounds.
-2700 in April 2022, an increase of 300 pounds.
-3000 in October 2022, an increase of 300 pounds.
-3,500 in March 2023, an increase of 500 pounds.
-4000 in September 2023, an increase of 500 pounds.

2)-Wages of workers in the private sector:

The wages of workers in the private sector witnessed successive increases, as the minimum wage for workers in the private sector rose from 2,400 pounds in January 2022, to 2,700 pounds in January 2023, then to 3,000 pounds in July 2023, then 3,500 starting in 2024.

This is in addition to approving an annual periodic bonus for workers in the private sector of no less than 3% of the insurance subscription wage, with a minimum of 200 pounds, as the annual periodic bonus for the year 2023 was a minimum of one hundred pounds, provided that these new decisions are implemented as of January 2024.

We point out here that workers in the private sector receive a lower minimum wage than their counterparts in the government sector, and that there are a large number of companies that have not implemented the decisions to increase the minimum wage.

Third: The cost of increasing wages from the state’s general budget:

The increase in the minimum wage is reflected in the increase in wage allocations and workers ‘ compensation (title I) of the state budget, and during the period from 2014 to 2023, the allocations of this section of the budget witnessed a huge increase year after year as follows:

The increase in the minimum wage is reflected in the increase in allocations for wages and workers’ compensation (Part One) in the state’s general budget. During the period from 2014 until 2023, the allocations for this section of the budget witnessed a tremendous increase year after year, as follows:

1) 207.2 billion pounds in the fiscal year 2014/2015, compared to 171.2 billion pounds in 2013/2014.

2) 213.7 billion pounds in the 2015/2016 fiscal year, an increase of 6 billion pounds over the previous fiscal year.

3) 225.5 billion pounds in the fiscal year 2016/2017, an increase of 12 billion pounds.

4) 240.1 billion pounds in the fiscal year 2017/2018, an increase of 15 billion pounds.

5) 266 billion and 91 million pounds in the fiscal year 2018/2019, an increase of 26 billion and 37 million pounds.

6) 288 billion and 773 million pounds in the fiscal year 2019/2020, an increase of 22 billion and 682 million pounds.

7) 318 billion and 806 million pounds in the fiscal year 2020/2021, an increase of 30 billion and 33 million pounds.

8) 358 billion and 735 million pounds in the fiscal year 2021/2022, a financial increase of 39 billion and 928 million pounds.

9) 410 billion pounds in the fiscal year 2022/2023, an increase in value amounting to 51 billion and 265 million pounds.

10) 470 billion pounds in the fiscal year 2023/2024, an increase of 60 billion pounds.

From what was previously presented, it is clear to us that the allocations for wages and workers’ compensation in the state’s general budget increased from 207.2 billion pounds in 2014 to reach 470 billion pounds in 2023, with an increase rate of about 127%.

Fourth: the relationship of wages to inflation and purchasing power

There is no doubt that the Egyptian state has made unprecedented efforts to take care of the wages of workers in the state and the private sector, but the increase in inflation rates significantly during the period from 2014 to 2023 represents a major challenge that may prevent these efforts from achieving their goals, which are centered on ensuring a minimum level of well – being of citizens.

Due to Egypt’s heavy dependence on the import of goods (especially food and fuel) from abroad-despite the decrease in imports by 40%- the prices of these goods increase with the increase in the value of the dollar, as well as the impact of the exchange rate on local goods, as the rise in prices of imported goods leads to an increase in the cost of production of local goods, which leads to a decrease in the actual living value of wages, especially with the depreciation of the pound against the dollar.

Fifth: Problems and obstacles facing the wage system in Egypt:

-There is no uniform minimum wage that includes all wage earners in Egypt
-No law has been issued regulating the minimum wage, which makes it easy to circumvent, especially with regard to workers in the private sector, and no penalty has been stipulated for those who do not adhere to applying the minimum wage.

-Private sector workers receive a lower minimum wage than their counterparts in the government sector, in addition to the lack of a binding mechanism for implementing the minimum.
-The National Wage Council does not have a mechanism for complaints about companies’ non-compliance, or immunity for workers from being subjected to retaliatory penalties for demanding the implementation of the minimum wage, or for demanding better wages in general.

Sixth: proposed solutions and recommendations:

– The need for a legislative basis for the minimum wage: this necessitates the enactment of a unified law to restructure the wages of all wage earners in Egypt, so that their wages increase commensurate with price increases at least, and review the minimum wages of workers, whether in the government sector or the private sector every six months in light of the continuous increase in prices.

– The need to take care of the wages of workers in the private sector in the state : by providing a package of compensation and transfers to maintain their purchasing power.

– The need to have a mechanism that obliges the private sector to apply the minimum wage approved by the National Council, and a complaints mechanism in case of non-compliance with the implementation of decisions.
.
– The adoption by the National Wages Council of the principle of the Living Wage instead of the minimum wage: the living wage is defined as the wage that is granted to a family breadwinner, middle-aged, with accumulated experience in his field of work. This wage should vary according to skills and degrees of education, as well as years of experience and type of work, and the living wage benefits a large number of wage earners in Egypt with experience and family owners, who receive income less than the minimum wage, so these will benefit when the minimum living wage is applied to them, which achieves proportionality between the minimum wage and inflation rates, and the adoption of the National Council for wages of the principle of living wage requires more social research to identify and codify enough to ensure the individual, family and society availability of minimum requirements for well-being living .

– The National Wages Council follows an approach based on linking the minimum wage and inflation rates: each time the value of the minimum wage is raised or determined in general, this is done by periodically measuring inflation rates and determining the requirements of monthly consumer spending for the Egyptian citizen, and based on it, the minimum wage is determined.

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Dr. Salah Hashem, head of the “Draya” Forum, the research arm of the Egyptian Union for Development and Social Protection Policies, confirmed that Egyptians’ awareness of the importance of participation comes from a pure national motive, which is to preserve this country, which faces a major challenge on its borders from several directions, adding that Egypt is over History wins by betting on its loyal sons.

Hashem pointed out that this crowding around the polling stations reflects the Egyptian citizen’s awareness of the nature of the stage the country is going through and the challenges it faces in order to achieve comprehensive development. It also indicates his sense of social responsibility and that he is an essential partner in building the new state and has the full right to self-determination. Explaining the civilized image shown by voters during the first day, which is characterized by youth, diversity, and concern for integrity and transparency in all voting processes..

The Draya Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies called for increasing the number of polling committees, granting workers on Tuesday an official holiday, and increasing the opening hours of the committees, saying that the number of those entitled to participate in the presidential elections reaches about 67 million voters, and therefore the number of committees must be increased from 11,631 inside the country. 9,367 electoral centers, including schools, youth centers, and health units, with the aim of reducing crowding, making it easier for voters, and giving an opportunity to those entitled to vote to participate in this important constitutional entitlement.

Hashim praised the regularity and discipline of the electoral process at the Republic level, since the first hours of the start of the voting process, and the full judicial supervision of the polling committees, where about 15 thousand judges from various authorities and judicial bodies, including the heads of sub-committees or conservation committees, supervise the electoral process, to ensure transparency and integrity of the electoral process.

It should be noted that the list of candidates in the 2024 presidential elections includes: presidential candidate Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, symbol of the “star,” presidential candidate Farid Zahran, head of the Egyptian Democratic Party, symbol of the “sun,” and presidential candidate Abdel-Sanad Yamama, head of the Wafd Party, symbol of the “palm tree.” Presidential candidate Hazem Omar is a symbol of “stair.”

The presidential elections are scheduled to be held inside Egypt according to the schedule set by the National Elections Authority on December 10, 11, and 12, with voting starting from nine in the morning until nine in the evening. December 13 has been set for the end of the counting process, sending the records to the general committees, and announcing the result. On December 18th.

The National Elections Authority has invited all diplomatic missions accredited inside Egypt to follow up on the electoral process and 24 embassies have already submitted to the authority and 67 diplomats have registered for follow-up work. 14 international organizations have been accredited to participate in the work of following up on the presidential elections, and 220 follow-up permits have been issued to these organizations, in addition to the participation of 62 local civil society organizations.

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Since 2014 until now, the pension system in Egypt has witnessed many developments that have made it capable of providing social protection, as it has increased successively and exceptionally in light of successive economic crises and rising costs of living, within the framework of the state’s keenness to achieve social protection for the most needy groups and improve their economic conditions. and social life to enable them to live a decent life.

In this context, the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Derayah ” presents this research paper, which relied on the inductive approach in addressing the reality of the pension system over the past 9 years, where it highlighted pension systems, fundamental legislative reforms and executive decisions that contributed to improving the conditions of pensioners, and giving them a set of gains and benefits that had a tangible positive impact on their lives, through the following four axes:

The first axis: pension systems in Egypt

The second axis: legislative reforms and executive decisions to improve the pension system

The third axis: the gains of pensioners from 2014 to 2023

The fourth axis: the impact of those gains on pensioners

The research paper has reached a set of results, the most important of which are:

-The state has succeeded in providing the necessary financial liquidity to serve pensioners since the signing of the financial entanglement agreement between the National Authority for social insurance and the state treasury, according to which about 45 trillion pounds will be paid to the authority over 50 years from 2019
.
-The government’s contributions to pension funds increased from 29.2 billion pounds in 2013-2014, to 202 billion pounds in the budget of the current year 2023-2024, an increase of about 592%.
-The value of pensions increased 10 times during the period from 2014 to 2023, and the value of pensions disbursed increased from 86.5 billion pounds in 2013/2014 to 340 billion pounds in 2022/2023, an increase of 293%.
-The minimum and maximum value of the severance pension has witnessed a significant increase, with the minimum in 2023 reaching about 1.275 pounds compared to 450 pounds in 2015, and the maximum 10.355 compared to 2.360 pounds in 2015.

-The “Social Security ” pension allocations increased to reach 31 billion pounds in the 2023/2024 budget, compared to 22 billion pounds in the 2022/2023 budget, and 19 billion pounds in the 2021/2022 budget.
-The increase of the Takaful and Karama pension during 2023 reached 40%, as the president of the Republic decided to increase it by 25% in March, and 15% in September, so that the “Takaful” pension would rise after the September 2023 increase to reach 630 pounds instead of 450 pounds, and the “Karama” pension for the elderly and people with disabilities reached 490 pounds instead of 350 pounds.

The first axis: pension systems:

The pension map was characterized by complexity and diversity, as its types varied as follows:

1: insurance pension

-It is a pension system based on contributions from subscribers for more than half a century, specifically since the 1960s. It has developed greatly over the past decades and played an important role in protecting large sectors of Egyptians, especially those who work in the formal sector, as its umbrella extended to a large number of citizens. Whether directly (the insured and the pensioner) or indirectly (family members).

-Workers are entitled to a social insurance pension after they pay insurance contributions for a specific period determined by the regulating law. These contributions are collected in insurance and pension funds, which subsequently provide the amounts of due pensions. The resources of these funds are the insurance contributions, the interest due thereon, and any profits resulting from investing the money in those funds. .

-The government allocates annual support to these funds from the state’s general budget to cover any deficit in collected contributions, and to finance the increases due to pensions, which are issued by law from the House of Representatives, or by a decision from the President of the Republic if the House of Representatives is not in session.

2: Social pension

-It is a security pension that is conditional on the social status of the citizen, and is not based on financial contributions, meaning that it is not financed through wage deductions. It is granted to poor families in accordance with the controls stipulated by the law. It may not be combined with any other type of pension, and its value is determined based on the number of pensions. Members of the beneficiary family.

The services of the social security system in Egypt include:

– Monthly security assistance, which is disbursed to poor families according to the study of the economic and social situation of the family, and the value of these assistance varies according to the number of family members.
– Exceptional assistance, which is a one-time assistance during the year for families benefiting from the Social Security Law, and is allocated for educational expenses, and its value varies from one stage of study to another, including exceptional assistance also funeral expenses, status expenses and urgent emergencies.
– A child’s pension, which is a pension issued to a child up to the age of 18 and in specific cases, namely orphaned children or children of unknown parentage, children of a breadwinner or divorced mother if she marries or dies, children of legally detained, imprisoned or imprisoned for at least a month.
– The monthly scholarship that is provided to the children of the beneficiaries of the guarantee assistance.
– Security projects to help engage in the labor market.
– Compensation, which is very diverse, and deals with disasters that affect citizens, whether individual or collective, such as desertification and others.

3: irregular employment pension

-The social insurance and Pensions Law 148 of 2019 included irregular employment of people without regular salaries in social insurance in exchange for paying 9% of the minimum wage, and those who wish to receive a pension with a minimum of 900 pounds, must register himself at the competent insurance office, and pay 72 pounds per month.

-A worker belonging to the category of irregular employment is entitled to a pension after reaching old age, with a contribution period for old-age, disability and death insurance of at least 180 months (15 years), including a contribution period of at least 120 months (10 years).

-According to the new social insurance law, the total pension for irregular employment may exceed 80% of the maximum contribution wage on the due date, and not less than 65% of it, in accordance with the new insurance and Pensions Law.

-According to the law, the categories of the labor force of irregular employment, include the following:

-Memorizers of the Holy Quran and reciters

-Domestic servants and the like

-Deportation workers

-Temporary workers in agriculture both in fields and orchards

-Workers in livestock or small animal and poultry farming projects

-Owners of built-up real estate whose share of the annual income is less than the category of the minimum subscription wage

-Non-possessor owners of agricultural land whose ownership is less than an acre

-Hymnists and other servants of the church

-Small self-employed people such as street vendors, car clubs, newspaper distributors, traveling shoe wipers, and other similar categories.

-Holders of agricultural land whose holding area is less than an acre, whether landlords or tenants by rent.

4: Private sector pension

Law No. 148 of 2019 and its executive regulations obligated the employer to pay the contributions due for his workers, and to submit an insured subscription application within two weeks of any worker joining his job. The law stipulates that the worker reaches retirement at the age of sixty. It also specifies cases in which the retirement age may extend beyond the age of 60 years, and stipulates that the worker is entitled to the period of his work after the age of sixty.

5: Exceptional pension

The exceptional pensions issued by Law No. 71 of 1964 mean either granting an exceptional pension to someone who has not previously received a pension, or improving the pension of someone who has previously received a pension.

The categories benefiting from the Exceptional Pensions Law are:

1 – Civilian workers whose service in the state’s administrative apparatus, public bodies, public institutions, or economic units affiliated to them has ended, or for those whose families have died.

2- Those who performed great services for the country or the families of those who died.

3 – Families of those who died in an accident considered a public disaster.

6: Solidarity and dignity pension

The “Takaful” program is designed as a conditional cash transfer program that provides income to support poor families with children under 18 years of age. The assistance includes providing a monthly salary and providing health care for pregnant mothers and pre-school children.

As for the “Karama” program, it was designed as an unconditional cash transfer program for the elderly poor (65 years and over), and the disabled with a disability rate starting from 50% that prevents them from working and earning, and who do not have a fixed income.

The second axis:

legislative reforms and executive decisions to improve the pension system
The 2014 Constitution was filled with a number of articles that preserved the rights of pensioners. Article 17 was clear in its dealings with social insurance, social security, and providing a pension for irregular workers, as it stipulated: “The state shall guarantee the provision of social insurance services.” Every citizen who does not enjoy the social insurance system has the right to social security, which guarantees him a decent life, if he is unable to support himself and his family, and in cases of inability to work, old age, and unemployment. The state works to provide an appropriate livelihood for small farmers, agricultural workers, fishermen, and irregular workers, in accordance with the law.

Laws and executive decisions:

-Decree of the president of the Republic by Law No. 118 of 2014 on exempting establishments and insured persons from the additional amounts due to them to the National Social Insurance Authority
.
-The decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 197 of 2014 to increase the planned rate of pensions in 2007 by 5% to 15% as of 1/7/2007 for pensions accrued before this date.

The decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 120 of 2014 to amend the social insurance law to cancel the deprivation of early pensioners of the increase prescribed by Article 165 to improve low pensions, the amendment was retroactive from the date of 1/7/2013 and the disbursement of financial differences as of this date.

-Decision of the president of the Republic No. 190 of 2014 to increase pensions by 10% of the total pension due to the pensioner on 30/6/2014.
-Decision of the president of the Republic by Law No. 29 of 2015 to increase pensions starting from 1/7/2015 by 10%.

-Law No. 60 of 2016 increasing pensions by 10% as of July 2016 pensions accrued before this date.

-Decision of the Ministry of social solidarity No. 374 of 2017 on the rules for disbursing the pension increase established by Law No. 80 of 2017, provided that the increase should be by 15% of the total pension payable to the pensioner on 30/6/2017, and the minimum increase should be 150 pounds and the maximum 550 pounds.

– Presidential Decision No. 260 of 2021 to increase pensions, effective 7/1/2021, by 13%.

– Presidential Decision No. 139 of 2022 to increase pensions by 13%, effective April 1, 2022.

– Presidential Decision No. 187 of 2023 to increase pensions, effective April 1, 2023, by 15%.

-The President of the Republic’s decision to increase the exceptional cost of living allowance, to become “600” pounds, instead of “300” pounds, for all employees of the state’s administrative apparatus, economic bodies, business sector companies and the public sector.

-Implementing the rule of financial inclusion for pensioners and beneficiaries, and mechanizing the collection of insurance benefits by linking with the electronic collection and payment center at the Ministry of Finance, which saves time, effort, and speed of disbursement.

The third axis: the earnings of pensioners and their beneficiaries

We can review the most important gains of pensioners based on contributors’ contributions from 2014 until 2023, as follows:

The value of pensions increased 10 times during the period from 2014 to 2023, and the following table shows the percentage increases approved by the government in accordance with the announced annual increases:

The value of annual increases during the period from 2014 to 2023

We refer here to raising the minimum insurance subscription wage in January 2023 to be 1,700 pounds, compared to 1,400 in 2022, and 1,200 in 2021, and raising the maximum insurance subscription wage to be 10,900 pounds, compared to 9,400 in 2022, and 8,100 pounds in 2021.

The steady increase in the number of civilian pensioners in the period from (2014-2023) and its annual value in billions

As of October 1, 2023, the number of pensioners and their beneficiaries amounted to 11,117,382, and the number of Pension Disbursement outlets amounted to 9,556 outlets.

The minimum and maximum value of the severance pension has witnessed a significant increase, as the increases have evolved from 2014 to 2023 as follows:
– The minimum pension amounted to 450 pounds in 2014, while the maximum was 2082 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 450 pounds in 2015, and the maximum 2360 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 500 pounds in 2016, and the maximum 2680 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 500 pounds in 2017, and the maximum 3040 pounds.

– The minimum pension amounted to 750 pounds in 2018, and the maximum to 3448 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 900 pounds in 2019, and the maximum 4568 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 910 pounds in 2020, and the maximum 5600 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 900 pounds in 2021, and the maximum 6480 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 910 pounds in 2022, and the maximum 7520 pounds.

– The minimum pension reached 1275 pounds in 2023, and the maximum 10355 pounds.

Social Security pension allocations increased to 31 billion pounds in the 2023/2024 budget, compared to 22 billion pounds in the 2022/2023 budget, and 19 billion pounds in the 2021/2022 budget.

The increase in the Takaful and Karama pension during the year 2023 amounted to about 40%, as the President of the Republic decided to increase it by 25% in March, and 15% in September, so that the “Takaful” pension increased after the September 2023 increase to reach 630 pounds instead of 450 pounds, and the “Karama” pension amounted to “For the elderly and people with disabilities, 490 pounds instead of 350 pounds.

Fourth axis: The impact of these gains on pensioners:

We can review the impact of the gains obtained by pensioners and their beneficiaries, as follows:

-The social protection plan approved by the Egyptian state since 2014 has contributed to the decline in poverty rates in Egypt to 29.7% in 2019/2020 compared to 32.5% in 2017/2018, with a decrease of 2.8%, which is an indicator of the success of the state’s efforts to achieve social justice in conjunction with the economic reforms implemented and focused on the social dimension of development.

-Assistance in providing citizens with a more balanced life at the psychological and social level, strengthening their sense of belonging, acceptance and acceptance from society and the surrounding environment, and keenness to integrate into society.

-An independent impact assessment conducted by the International Institute for Food Policy Research showed that the “Takaful and Karama” program had an impressive impact on women’s empowerment and economic inclusion, through a set of indicators, the most important of which were:

-Increase the consumption of families benefiting from Takaful from 7.3% to 8.4%, compared to families that do not participate in the program.

-Reducing by 12 percentage points the probability of families in the Takaful program slipping below the poverty line.

-A significant increase (from 8.3% to 8.9%) in the value of monthly food consumption for Takaful beneficiaries.

-The “Takaful” program has increased the rate of standard deviation of weight relative to height, which is a measure of the short-term nutritional status of children under the age of two, that is, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points in the likelihood that a child under the age of five has been treated for malnutrition, and has also led to a decrease in stunting and wasting rates, according to estimates of the demographic and Health Survey issued by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2019.

-The program has also led to an increase in spending on the educational process of their children and the provision of school supplies and means of transportation to school, as the impact assessment indicators showed that 100% of the children of “Takaful” families are enrolled in schools, including 4.5 million children, including 50% at the primary stage, 20% at the preparatory stage, 9% at the secondary stage, in addition to 22% children under the age of Education.

-The “Takaful and Dignity” program has shown positive results related to the empowerment of women and their sense of dignity, with a decrease in financial pressures on the family, as we find, according to some statements by the minister of social solidarity, that 75% of Takaful and dignity card holders are women

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Illegal immigration is a global phenomenon that exists in developed and developing countries, and represents a threat to many of them because the resulting disturbances lead to compromising the economic, social and cultural privacy of these countries, and constitute a threat to their national security and their economic, social and political interests, even if the numbers of illegal immigrants on their lands diminish.

Egypt is one of the countries suffering from this phenomenon as a source and receiving country for illegal immigrants as well as being a transit country, so the strategic forum for public policies and Development Studies “Deraya ” issues a research paper highlighting its various dimensions through the following axes:

First: The reality of illegal immigration in Egypt

Second: The economic factors driving illegal immigration

Third: The negative economic effects of illegal immigration

Fourth: Measures taken by Egypt to reduce illegal immigration

Fifth: Ways to reduce the negative economic impacts of illegal immigration

Sixth: Recommendations

The most important findings of the paper are as follows:-

– Egypt, as a country of destination, transit and departure, has been exposed to waves of illegal immigration, as a result of the increasing political instability and civil wars on the African continent, and the situation witnessed by the Arab world of revolutions and divisions.

– Egypt hosts about 9 million refugees and migrants from more than 58 different nationalities, who enjoy various basic services.

– The number of refugees and asylum seekers in Egypt reached about 259.3 thousand refugees and asylum seekers in 2020.

Pressure on public utilities, loss of jobs for citizens, loss of tax revenues are the most prominent negative consequences of illegal immigration.

– Egypt has become a successful international model in the fight against illegal migration and in supporting refugees, amid international praise for the treatment of the Egyptian state.

– The Egyptian state has taken many security and legislative measures to protect its youth from death boat trips, and job opportunities through national projects have contributed to eliminating the phenomenon of illegal migration.

First: The reality of illegal immigration in Egypt

Egypt has three communities abroad, represented by ancient migration to Europe and America and temporary migration, where the number of expatriate Egyptians residing in non-Arab countries, such as Italy, the United States of America, Canada, Australia and Greece, is estimated at three million Egyptians. Or labor migration, represented in the Gulf, where official estimates indicate that more than six million Egyptians reside in the GCC countries, and the third migration that appeared in the nineties, represented by irregular
.migration

It should be noted that about 90% of Egyptian immigrants return to Egypt after a while because their main goal is to search for a better job opportunity, and the state and international organizations play an important role in reducing the phenomenon of irregular migration because it cannot be eliminated by 100%.

The geographical location of Egypt and the political situation witnessed by a number of countries in the region have contributed to the transformation of Egypt into a transit and destination country for refugees .Egypt hosts about 9 million refugees and migrants from more than 58 different nationalities, including Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and sub-Saharan African countries. the vast majority of them live in urban areas in Greater Cairo and Alexandria and enjoy various basic services

The previous figure shows that the number of refugees and asylum seekers in 2020 amounted to about 259.3 thousand, compared to 258.4 thousand in 2019, 246.7 thousand in 2018, 232.6 thousand in 2017, 213.5 thousand in 2016, 212.5 thousand in 2015, and 236 1 thousand in 2014, 230.1 thousand in 2013, 109.9 thousand in 2012, and 95.1 thousand in 2011.

Second: The economic factors driving illegal immigration

1- Population explosion: Population growth that exceeds the carrying capacity of the region or environment leads to population explosion. Population explosion and its consequences are considered a greater problem in developing countries.

2- Family reunification: Some illegal immigrants seek to live with relatives who live in a country they are not allowed to enter, such as a husband/wife or other family members.

3- Education: Families want to ensure a better education for their children.

4- The search for livelihood: It is one of the first and most important motives, as it leads immigrants to leave their homelands and migrate to any of the countries in which they find work opportunities to earn a living.

5-the societal transformations that most of the developing world countries are going through specifically, as these transformations carry increasing economic and social bottlenecks, escalating inflationary pressures, a low standard of living, and worsening crises in the areas of housing and utilities; Therefore, migration for work has become a necessary process

6-The high price of entry visas for some developed countries in particular. Therefore, some young people resort to the services of people called smuggling intermediaries, who facilitate the entry of migrants and their crossing of the border.

7- The lack and scarcity of labor in some countries: This is often due to the expansion of the areas of these countries and their location on a large geographical area, and in return, they suffer from a lack of population density. This causes a severe shortage of labor, which is offset by a high level of wages. These countries become a destination for any immigrant.

8-The policies and laws of the governments of countries that limit and prevent their citizens from immigrating outside their countries; This forces them to resort to illegal immigration.

Egypt has been exposed to waves of illegal immigration, as a result of the increasing state of political instability and civil wars on the African continent, and the state of revolutions and divisions witnessed in the Arab world and the increase in ethnic and sectarian armed conflicts, especially in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen on the one hand, and the deteriorating economic conditions of most of the countries of the continent African.

Third: The negative economic effects of illegal immigration

There are negative effects of illegal immigration, such as

A- Pressure on public facilities: Illegal immigrants usually use public services such as health facilities, public schools, transportation, and parks, yet they do not pay taxes to build and maintain these facilities.

b-Job loss for citizens: Illegal immigrants are usually willing to work for low wages. They take jobs reserved for locals, which can be frustrating for citizens who cannot find reasonably paying jobs.

c- Loss of tax revenue: Employing illegal immigrants means that the employer gets away without paying the necessary taxes…which can undermine government programs and harm government projects that benefit us all, and this hurts everyone so that a few benefit.

d- The escalation of criminal and terrorist activities: Most illegal immigrants are only looking for work opportunities, but there is a large number of them involved in criminal activities without proper oversight of those who enter a country illegally.

Fourth: Measures taken by Egypt to reduce illegal immigration

During 9 years, the Egyptian state took many measures that enabled it to develop an integrated system to contain illegal immigration and reduce its risks, in an effort to preserve its true wealth of young people. The government enacted some laws, tightened control over airports, ports, and Egyptian borders, and implemented giant projects that accommodate thousands of young people to reduce illegal immigration.

The state’s efforts to combat illegal immigration, in light of its keenness to adhere to international conventions, have resulted in no ship departing to transport illegal immigrants from the Egyptian coast since September 2016. Three files were worked on to combat this type of immigration as follows:

A- The first file: establishing legislative and institutional frameworks

Law No. 82 of 2016 regarding combating illegal immigration and migrant smuggling and its Executive Regulation No. 983 of 2018 came to establish deterrent penalties for this phenomenon by criminalizing all forms of migrant smuggling, which helped law enforcement agencies eliminate smuggling networks.

In April 2022, the President of the Republic issued Law No. 2 of 2022 amending some provisions of the Law on Combating Illegal Immigration and Migrant Smuggling promulgated by Law No. 82 of 2016 in order to combat this phenomenon. The penalty was increased to become aggravated imprisonment for a period of not less than five years and a fine of not less than Five hundred thousand pounds and not more than one million pounds.

The National Strategy to Combat Illegal Immigration (2016/2026) was also launched, which targets the groups most at risk of exploitation by smugglers, namely young people (18-35 years old), children and their families, and those arriving to Egypt illegally. It also seeks to deter and punish immigration brokers and traders through… Strict procedures and penalties.

The government also established a number of bodies concerned with managing the illegal immigration file, the most important of which is the Ministry of State for Immigration and Affairs of Egyptians Abroad, which was created in 2015.

B-The second file: the security

There were infiltration operations taking place across the eastern borders and the western and southern borders, but they stopped thanks to the efforts of the Ministry of Interior and the Armed Forces in securing the borders very well. Attempts at illegal immigration of Egyptians and foreigners across the land and sea borders, especially those overlooking the Mediterranean Sea, were thwarted, and immigration brokers were besieged. Illegal workers, who facilitate the crossing of Africans and use Egypt as a transit country.

C- The third file: development efforts

Launching the “Decent Life” initiative to develop the Egyptian countryside to raise the quality of life for citizens in villages that source illegal immigration, as it contributed significantly to eliminating the causes of illegal immigration, by achieving comprehensive community development, as a budget worth one trillion pounds was allocated to the initiative.

2-Developing places and hotspots for illegal immigration, including Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate. The political leadership opened the industrial fish city project in Ghalioun, Kafr El-Sheikh, as the project provides thousands of direct and indirect job opportunities for fishermen and university graduates from the people of Kafr El-Sheikh and its neighboring governorates.

3- Facilitating all marketing procedures for the Small and Micro Enterprise Financing Initiative for Youth, and allocating an amount of 200 billion pounds for its implementation, especially in geographical areas where illegal immigration is widespread.

4- The Ministry of Immigration implemented the presidential initiative “Survival Boats,” which was launched by the President of the Republic as part of the recommendations of the third edition of the World Youth Forum in December 2019. The initiative contributed to raising awareness and training the most targeted groups to introduce them to the dangers of illegal immigration and its safe alternatives, according to a plan drawn up to include 14 governorates. It is one of the governorates most prone to illegal immigration.

Fifth: Ways to reduce the negative economic impacts of illegal immigration

The fight against illegal migration will not only come through awareness-raising processes, but also through the adoption by countries of some measures that contribute to changing the thinking of young people by:

– Increase and support national investment to be able to increase new job opportunities for young people who can completely stop thinking about immigration.

– Improving the health reality by paying attention to the health sector from hospitals and securing trained medical staff, modern devices and all kinds of medicines, and this can limit the migration caused by diseases and epidemics.

– The demand of governments to build housing associations for young people and sell them at affordable prices so that they can get married and start a family, and then stop thinking about immigration.

-Countries monitor their land and sea borders well, and set up military and security barriers in open border areas or on secret passages and crossings taken by people smugglers.

– Taking strict legal measures and deterrent penalties against every illegal immigrant who is arrested, so that the rest of the young people who want to do this type of immigration know their fate.

– The governments of the countries of immigration to spread awareness among their citizens and ask them to help their governments by refraining from hiring any person from outside the country who does not have a legal entry visa and immediately inform the authorities of the country about it.

– Allowing citizens to engage in the political situation and express their opinions without intimidation or intimidation.

-Providing suitable jobs and jobs for young graduates with wages commensurate with their fatigue, qualifications and the living situation of the country.

– Consolidate the idea of the motherland and strengthen their attachment to it, and provide intellectual, material and psychological comfort to increase and strengthen this attachment and refuse to abandon it and emigrate from it.

– Achieving the principle of equal opportunities, justice, equality and job descriptions, and providing the simplest rights and privileges for young people to support, assist and encourage them to work effectively, such as providing transportation, health insurance, appropriate wages, comfortable and healthy work environment, and others.

Sixth: recommendations

The Egyptian state has succeeded in managing the illegal immigration file and addressing this dangerous phenomenon over the past nine years, perhaps the most important of which are the following:

– Strengthening the spirit of belonging among young people, instilling the value of patriotism, motivating them to participate in political life

– Employing the religious dimension to raise awareness of the dangers of migration, and activating the role of religious institutions.

– Activating and increasing the role of civil society organizations in addressing the phenomenon of illegal migration, through direct contact with Target groups in the most exporting governorates of illegal migration, and clarifying the risks and alternatives.

– Increase investment in education in the provinces that are the source of illegal immigration, and pay attention to high-quality technical education.

– Highlighting the consequences of illegal immigration through educational courses and programs in schools and universities.

– The direction and support of production projects because they absorb a lot of manpower, and this is next to the giant national projects that Egypt is implementing now.

– Encouraging the private sector to support activities to combat illegal migration.

– Intensification of the media processing of the illegal immigration file.

– Investing and strengthening international and regional cooperation in the field of combating illegal migration

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 Despite the fact that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, which was launched on October 7, 2023, was a logical result of the ongoing Israeli provocations and violations against the defenseless Palestinian people, and its policies that included unfair and systematic discrimination, the unlawful usurpation of lands, the forced displacement of the land’s owners, and a growing settlement expansion, However, the Israeli occupation army forces gave themselves the right, with international blessing, to punish the Palestinian people for their desire to liberate their land, and carried out a brutal attack on the residents of the Gaza Strip, which was described as the most violent in the series of Israeli attacks on the Palestinian people.

 Through this documentary report, the Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Deraya” monitors the violations of the Israeli occupation army and its criminal actions against the Palestinians and their right to their land and sanctities in occupied Palestine, in flagrant violation of all international humanitarian laws and conventions.

 “War crimes” are defined in their absolute sense as: “serious violations of international law committed against civilians or combatants during an armed conflict, which lead to their perpetrators being held individually criminally responsible, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.” These crimes apply to all violations of the Geneva Conventions. Which was approved in 1949 following World War II.

 This definition was included in Article 8 of the “Rome Statute”, which is the treaty establishing the International Criminal Court that was adopted in June 1998, as Article No. (8) of the “Rome Statute” defines war crimes as: serious violations of the laws and customs of war applied in International Armed Conflicts”, based primarily on the 1899 Hague Declaration and the 1907 Regulations relating to the Laws and Customs of War on Land annexed to the Fourth Hague Convention, the 1925 Geneva Protocol, the 1954 Hague Convention and its Protocols, the 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child, and the 1994 Convention for the Safety of United Nations Personnel United Nations and associated individuals, and the Statute of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia.

 According to the Rome Statute, these violations and crimes against humanity include multiple aspects, including: -Intentional killing, torture and inhuman treatment, conducting biological experiments, or causing widespread destruction and seizure of property, without military necessity justifying it and in violation of the law and in a senseless manner.-Likewise, attacks against the civilian population as such, or against individual civilians not directly participating in hostilities, or intentionally directing attacks against civilian sites, that is, sites that do not constitute military objectives.

 -These violations also include intentionally directing attacks against buildings designated for health purposes, hospitals, places where the sick and wounded gather, places for religious, educational, artistic, scientific, or charitable purposes, historical monuments, and other targets that are not considered military.

International humanitarian and criminal law also prohibit the establishment of sieges and the deliberate starvation of civilians as a method of warfare. Objects and materials indispensable to the survival of the civilian population also receive special protection. These objects and materials include: foodstuffs, agricultural areas that produce them, crops, livestock, and water facilities. Drinking water, its networks, and irrigation works, it is prohibited to attack, destroy, move, or disrupt them in any other way.

Monitoring the crimes of the Israeli occupation army against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip:

Since October 7, 2023, the Israeli occupation army has been committing all forms of war crimes against the Palestinian people of the Gaza Strip, which can be listed as follows:

1: crimes of genocide

The prime minister of the Israeli occupation state, Benjamin Netanyahu, promised to turn Gaza into “ruins”, and the minister of defense of the occupation state, Yoav Gallant, said: “We are imposing a complete blockade on the Gaza Strip, there is no electricity, food, water, fuel and everything is closed, we are fighting human animals –as he put it -, and we act accordingly,” promising the defenseless Gazans that they will see Hell

These statements and subsequent actions and violations over the past weeks constitute direct incitement to commit the crime of “genocide,” which is prohibited under international law. Article VI of the “Rome Statute” regarding the establishment of the International Criminal Court in 2002 defines the crimes of genocide.

The above are some of the images of genocide crimes that we have seen in the past weeks, which prove for sure that the Israeli occupation state committed all the above-mentioned crimes in its brutal war in the Gaza Strip, which are of course war crimes, punishment and genocide in accordance with the convention on the prevention and punishment of the crime of genocide and in accordance with the four Geneva Conventions and the law of the International Criminal Court, because the perpetrators know for sure of the crimes of genocide and their multiple criminal precedents in this regard, witnessed by the whole world.

2: Imposing a siege and preventing the entry of humanitarian relief

According to international humanitarian law, and according to statements by officials of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, imposing a blockade that would threaten the lives of civilians by depriving them of basic goods and services necessary for their survival is contrary to international humanitarian law, and unless there is military necessity that justifies it, It is classified as one of the manifestations of collective punishment criminalized by the Geneva Convention of International Law in the Third Protocol in Article 87, the Fourth Protocol in Article 33 and its Appendix in Article 50, and Rule No. 103 of customary international humanitarian law.

Imposing restrictions on the movement of individuals and goods that would threaten the lives of civilians is prohibited under international law, and accordingly, imposing a “total siege” on the Gaza Strip and banning the entry of food, fuel, and medical aid is considered a full-fledged war crime.

3: Following the starvation policy

The crime of siege is followed by another crime, which is starvation. In its latest statements, OXFAM accused Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war against civilians in Gaza, stressing in this context that only about 2% of the necessary food supplies were allowed to enter Gaza, meaning that civilians in Gazans do not have the most basic necessities of life, such as food and water, and they cannot find anything to satisfy the hunger of their innocent children. This is a blatant violation of the most basic human rights, which violates all laws, humanitarian norms, and international agreements.

4: Forced displacement

Forced displacement is a serious violation of human rights and a clear violation of the provisions of international law, international humanitarian law,

the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 relating to the protection of civilians in time of international armed conflict, and the two additional protocols issued by the United Nations in 1977 relating to the protection of civilians in time of internal and international armed conflict, and is also considered a violation of the International Convention for the protection of all persons from Enforced Disappearance adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in its resolution 47/133 of December 18, 1992, which states in its initial article that: -No one shall be subjected to enforced disappearance.-No exceptional circumstance whatsoever, whether it is a situation of war or the threat of war, internal political instability or any other exception, may be invoked to justify enforced disappearance.

5: Killing children and women and targeting civilians

The Israeli occupation forces committed the most heinous crimes against Palestinian civilians, especially children, women and the elderly. The number of massacres they committed in the Gaza Strip reached more than 1,031 massacres, leading to the martyrdom of more than 10,165 Palestinians, including more than 4,104 children and about 2,500 women, in addition to More than 27,000 injured, in addition to about 163 martyrs in the West Bank, and 2,250 wounded in the West Bank, according to the latest data of the Palestinian Ministry of Health, and the violations are still continuing and the number of victims and injured is increasing hour after hour, and the bombing has also led to the removal of more than 100 entire Palestinian families from records. Civil status following the martyrdom of its members.

The indiscriminate bombing of civilians and infrastructure by the Israeli occupation army forces amounts to crimes against humanity that require accountability in accordance with Article 3 of the Geneva Convention.

6: Demolition of homes and civilian facilities such as hospitals and schoolsIsraeli occupation army warplanes demolish homes and civilian facilities over the heads of their residents without warning, following a scorched earth policy, as they completely destroyed nearly 32,000 buildings and about 200,000 other housing units that were severely damaged and no longer fit, and still more. Of the 2,500 people missing under the rubble of their homes. On the evening of October 30, 2023, the Israeli occupation army forces destroyed an entire residential neighborhood in the middle of the “Jabalia” camp, north of Gaza. This massacre resulted in the fall of about 400 martyrs, the majority of whom were children and women, and left hundreds of wounded and injured defenseless civilians.

At the level of violations and crimes committed by the Israeli occupation army against hospitals and medical centers in the Gaza Strip, the bombing of Al-Baptisti Hospital on October 17, 2023, which resulted in the death of about 500 Palestinian civilians, the majority of whom were children, represents a new massacre and another full-fledged war crime in addition to the crimes committed by Israel against… In full view of the whole world, which is a grave violation of all the norms of international criminal law and the provisions of all international agreements. The protection of civilians is the basis of the International Geneva Convention, which was signed on August 12, 1949.

This is also a clear violation of the rules of international humanitarian law, especially Rule 55, which considers schools and hospitals to be red lines protected under international law.

The Palestinian Ministry of Health stated during a press conference on November 4, 2023, that 150 medical staff were martyred and 57 ambulances were destroyed. The Israeli occupation army forces also deliberately targeted 105 health institutions and put 16 hospitals out of service.

The occupation forces also targeted the vicinity of Al-Quds Hospital in Gaza more than once, and other hospitals that they ordered evacuated, such as Al-Shifa Hospital and the Indonesian Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip.

7: targeting international relief organizations and their employees

 The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA) alone lost about 88 of its employees in the Gaza Strip; the largest number of deaths recorded by the United Nations in a single conflict at all, after many of them were killed while they were inside their homes with their families, according to the statements of “Philip Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of the agency, who confirmed that about 40 UNRWA buildings were bombed, which led to its complete destruction, including schools and warehouses, and many other relief buildings were severely damaged due to Israeli raids, the latest of which was the” AL-fakhoura “school it housed thousands of refugees in the northern Gaza Strip.

All international humanitarian organizations operating in the Gaza Strip, such as the “World Health “Organizations, The” Red Cross”, UNICEF … and others, announced the interruption of communication with their crews in Gaza, and warned the international community during the previous days that they are working under very difficult conditions amid the interruption of the internet, telephone and cellular communications, as well as the huge lack of resources to ensure that they continue to provide their services to the affected in the Strip.

8: Killing journalists and suppressing opinions opposing the Israeli escalation

Reporters Without Borders announced on the first of November 2023 that it filed a lawsuit before the International Criminal Court regarding the commission of “war crimes” against journalists during the recent events in the Gaza Strip, and a media statement from the organization stated that it filed a complaint related to war crimes to the Office of the prosecutor general of the International Criminal Court on October 31, 2023, including details of the cases of more than 10 journalists killed from the seventh of October and two others injured while doing their work, out of about 36 other journalists killed during the Battle of “Al-Aqsa flood”, and this conflict since its foundation in 1992.

During the media coverage of the events, we find that the Israeli occupation army forces are practicing blatant violations through which they are trying to obscure the voices supporting the Palestinians and suppress opposing opinions through widespread arrest campaigns inside the Strip and in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, described by observers as the widest and loudest for years, according to the Israeli newspaper “hearts” and in a news report published on its website on October 20, 2023, it says that hundreds of Israeli Arabs and Palestinians in the occupied city of East Jerusalem have been expelled and imprisoned from work and the university due to seven posts on social networking sites in solidarity with the Gaza Strip Gaza. And the destruction of about 50 centers and headquarters of media institutions as a result of indiscriminate and violent shelling, according to a recent report issued by the Freedoms Committee of the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate, including, but not limited to: Al-Aqsa media network, Ma’an news agency, Sawa agency, Shihab agency, Al-Quds newspaper, Baladna Radio, Radio Zaman, Wataniya agency, Khobar agency, Al-Ayam newspaper, event media services company, Fadl Shana Foundation, Holy Quran Radio, Shams news agency, APA agency, Al Jazeera News Network office, Palestine TV, Agence France Presse…

9: Use of internationally prohibited weapons

Since October 7, 2023, Israel has been arbitrarily using a huge amount of explosives that were dropped on the Gaza Strip, dropping more than 25 thousand tons of explosives – that is, the per capita amounting to approximately 12 kilograms of explosives – equivalent to two nuclear bombs, according to what was stated. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Observatory is an independent international organization concerned with human rights issues in the Middle East, North Africa and Europe, headquartered in Geneva.

The Euro-Mediterranean Observatory stated in a report that the size of the explosives used by the occupation army exceeded the weight of the nuclear bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan at the end of World War II in 1945, which was estimated at about 15 thousand tons of explosives.

  It also indicated that the area of ​​the Japanese city was estimated at about 900 square kilometers, while the area of ​​the Gaza Strip did not exceed 360 kilometres, which means that the destructive power of the explosives dropped on Gaza since the outbreak of the brutal aggression exceeded those dropped on Hiroshima.

White phosphorus weapon:

Many videos have been circulated in all media outlets showing the aerial bombardment of the Israeli occupation forces on the Gaza Strip and targeting them using the internationally banned white phosphorus weapon.white phosphorus bombs represent one of the types of deadly weapons, the explosion of which produces intense heat and columns of burning white smoke, leading to melting human skin and separating it from bones, and incendiary particles can remain inside the body even after the end of the bombardment to cause fatal damage.

The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip indicated that the Israeli occupation forces used internationally banned shells in their brutal attack on the Gaza Strip, as the fragments penetrate the body and cause explosions inside it, causing terrible burns that melt the skin of those affected and sometimes lead to death.

Unguided bombs:

They are unguided bombs, which is why they are called “dumb bombs.” They are also known as free-fall bombs, gravity bombs, and iron bombs. They are dropped from American “M-117” F-16 aircraft, and their effect is to cause complete destruction of buildings and wipe them off the ground. face of the Earth. They were used during World War II, and continued to constitute the vast majority of bombs dropped by aircraft until the end of the 1980s, until they have now been largely replaced by precision-guided munitions, which are directed to specific targets to avoid injuring civilians or demolishing non-target buildings.

Vacuum bombs, “Halper” retaliatory bombs:

Vacuum bombs are one of the most dangerous and controversial bombs used by the Israeli occupation army forces in the Gaza Strip, because they are more destructive than conventional explosives of similar size, and they have a terrible impact on anyone who falls into the circle of detonating them and causing serious damage, and they are the most destructive to buildings and infrastructure, while “Halber revenge” bombs are considered internationally prohibited incendiary and Fortress-piercing bombs, which are used by the Israeli occupation forces in their aggression on the Strip.

Some international media reports talk about the expansion of the occupation forces in the use of chemical warfare tools during their ground attack on the Gaza Strip, and plans to use nerve gas such as VX gas, sarin gas, Suman gas and Tabun gas, as these toxic gases target blood cells and prevent oxygen absorption, leading to suffocation.

 In the end, the Strategic Forum for Public Policy and Development Studies “Deraya” recommends the necessity of forming an international committee of jurists and specialists in the military field to document the war crimes committed by Israel against the defenseless Palestinian people, and to prosecute its political and military officials, including those who issued orders, plans, and implemented them, and to submit them to the International Criminal Court for trial. As “war criminals,” in addition to requesting compensation for the Palestinians similar to those that Israel obtained from the German government as compensation for victims of the “Holocaust,” which amounted to more than 90 billion dollars over 70 years, according to what was announced by the “Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany” organization. Year 2021.

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